2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Quinnipiac GCB: D+1 among RV (45-44)

First time Dems have lead with Q-pac since Sept 2021. Last poll was R+5 in June, R+4 in May, R+3/4 in April

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3852

[Lief 🗽]

Biden also has a 31% approval rating in that poll. Crazy stuff.

[wbrocks67]

Biden also has a 31% approval rating in that poll. Crazy stuff.

I mean the crosstabs are pretty whacky. They still have 18-34 year olds at like 25/63 approval and then Latinos at like 19/71. (yet Latinos are near equal on GCB for ex)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol look at the state by state polls it's still a 303 map Morning Consult rebuted Traggy Trump poll and shows Biden up 45/41 on Trump whereas Traggy has Trump ahead 47/42

[Devils30]

Biden also has a 31% approval rating in that poll. Crazy stuff.

I mean the crosstabs are pretty whacky. They still have 18-34 year olds at like 25/63 approval and then Latinos at like 19/71. (yet Latinos are near equal on GCB for ex)

Other polls have Ds up 20 with Latinos. I would be careful with these lower quality polls, Ds are probably not up 19 with white college as the CNN suggested but also not down with Hispanics. The special election evidence is mixed, no gains from 2020 in urban California and modest margin increases with rural Hispanics for GOP. In NJ Murphy actually matched or exceeded Biden in heavily Hispanic urban towns like Paterson, Union City. It was both white college and WWC he was 12-15% below 2017 with. Most Hispanics are not rural gun-toting social conservatives like Zapata county!

[RI]

AARP poll of likely voters in 56 competitive congressional districts has R's up 46-42 in districts which voted for Biden by 6.

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2022/aarp-targeted-congressional-districts-survey-voters-18-older.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00550.033.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GCB 46 each CNN


https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA?t=0dNE6SGnthATxsi5rLlFbg&s=09

[wbrocks67]

AARP poll of likely voters in 56 competitive congressional districts has R's up 46-42 in districts which voted for Biden by 6.

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2022/aarp-targeted-congressional-districts-survey-voters-18-older.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00550.033.pdf

Trump having a 50/49 approval in districts that averaged Biden +6 is.... something.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AARP poll of likely voters in 56 competitive congressional districts has R's up 46-42 in districts which voted for Biden by 6.

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2022/aarp-targeted-congressional-districts-survey-voters-18-older.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00550.033.pdf

It's the same 303 blue wall map we won last time but Tim Ryan like Brown did in 2018 is overperformed , what's so hard about Rs acknowledge that we are the Favs in the EC college if Trump runs he will be a 2* loser

I can see Ryan winning Franken, Beasley or Demings winning giving D's a 54/46 S even if Rs take a 15 seat majority, if Rs get a 15 seat majority that's the ceiling 217 is the floor and we won that in 2018 24 we have another 303 Senate map and can win H back in 2 yrs with Biden on  ballot Adam Schiff's said that so a H maj will be short lived

The IA poll shows Rs winning 3/4 districts the same number they won last time so No, you guys aren't winning the Sen, NV, AZ, and GA are safe and WI and PA are Tossup and OH, NC, FL are wave insurance

[GeorgiaModerate]

Echelon Insights, July 15-18: D+4 among LV, D+7 among RV.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1549857224461369344

More details in other tweets in the thread.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Echelon Insights, July 15-18: D+4 among LV, D+7 among RV.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1549857224461369344
More details in other tweets in the thread.

Good, an 11 point shift right from their Biden +15 poll

[Politician]

Echelon Insights, July 15-18: D+4 among LV, D+7 among RV.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1549857224461369344

More details in other tweets in the thread.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

IIRC Echelon's GCB polling did very well in 2020.

[Minnesota Mike]

IIRC Echelon's GCB polling did very well in 2020.

They missed by a point in 2020. Echelon was D+4, ended up D+3.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/echelon-insights/

B/C rating from 538.

[2016]

Forget about the GCB Horse Race for a minute.

Midterm Elections are BASE ELECTIONS.

Even if Democrats in some of the Polls have a slight lead underlining in it and nobody is willing to talk about it is the large Enthusiasm Gap between the two Parties. According to a Marquette Law School National Poll Republicans enjoying an 18-Percentage Point Voter Enthusiasm Gap.

CNN has the GCB tied in their latest Poll but they have Republicans enjoying a 12-Point Gap in Voter Enthusiasm.

VOTER ENTHUSIASM matters a lot more the than GCB Horse Race Numbers as we get closer to the Election.

[wbrocks67]

Forget about the GCB Horse Race for a minute.

Midterm Elections are BASE ELECTIONS.

Even if Democrats in some of the Polls have a slight lead underlining in it and nobody is willing to talk about it is the large Enthusiasm Gap between the two Parties. According to a Marquette Law School National Poll Republicans enjoying an 18-Percentage Point Voter Enthusiasm Gap.

CNN has the GCB tied in their latest Poll but they have Republicans enjoying a 12-Point Gap in Voter Enthusiasm.

VOTER ENTHUSIASM matters a lot more the than GCB Horse Race Numbers as we get closer to the Election.

oof gurl give it a REST

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll?t=x1MSpTKDWMvPr4KV2arYTw&s=09

QU HAS DS AHEAD ON GCB 45/44 PERCENT EVENTHOUGH THEY HAVE BIDEN AT RECORD LOW APPROVALS

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550197073055711237

[2016]

Echelon Insights is a Poll done by "NEVER TRUMPERS" Kirsten Soltis Anderson, Alex Castellanos and the Lincoln Project so throw in the bin.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Echelon Insights is a Poll done by "NEVER TRUMPERS" Kirsten Soltis Anderson, Alex Castellanos and the Lincoln Project so throw in the bin.

...this is a GCB poll. It doesn't even mention Trump.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550197073055711237

I suppose that's a good poll for Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map anyways with wave insurance if SISOLAK is ahead in Lombard internal it's a 303 map

Reynolds is crushing DeJear on another poll it has it 56/41 Reynolds and Grassley is up 52/43 we have a better chance in OH and NC and FLORIDA and TX than IA and MO

[GeorgiaModerate]

...
I suppose that's a good poll for Democrats.

My heart can't take many shocks like this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

...
I suppose that's a good poll for Democrats.

My heart can't take many shocks like this.

There are gonna be upsets we didn't expect to lose seats in 2020 and we are gonna do well in the Sen and Gov not so well in the H divided Govt setting the stage up for 24 if can win back the H in 24, but if we win OH, NC, TX and FL we automatically win the H anyways we have a better chance in Blk states and OH is a Blk state as well as NC and FL and TX

The Senate map in 22/24/26 doesn't bode well for Rs with Casey, Kaine Sinema up in 24 and Collins is DOA in 26 I don't care how many seats Rs het gain in the H that Senate map is bad for them

[Devout Centrist]

I suppose that's a good poll for Democrats.

400 GOP House seats confirmed.