2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The recession and GDP growth and the war in Ukraine, the issue isn't black or brown it's with white females they have anxiety over the war in Ukraine , why hasn't it ended Russia forthe third time interfered in our election Kennedy Assassinated, WikiLeaks with Hillary and Russia and Ukraine war

[Politician]

Wow, this forum is truly a special level of dumb. RV polls don't mean anything.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The topline number is still good for the GOP, problem is the momentum was continuous for them in the late months of 2010-14 and it does appear Dems are showing signs of late life. GOP is a big big favorite in the House but still probably have like a 20% chance of losing everything.

Other than the Dobbs report what else caused the shift in the momentum. Also, what do you think would shift it back in the GOPs favor?

Dobbs is the main driver, but there's also Trump being unfavorably back in the news due to the J6 hearings, and possibly gas prices coming down quite consistently for the last month-plus.

[wbrocks67]

The topline number is still good for the GOP, problem is the momentum was continuous for them in the late months of 2010-14 and it does appear Dems are showing signs of late life. GOP is a big big favorite in the House but still probably have like a 20% chance of losing everything.

Other than the Dobbs report what else caused the shift in the momentum. Also, what do you think would shift it back in the GOPs favor?

Dobbs is the main driver, but there's also Trump being unfavorably back in the news due to the J6 hearings, and possibly gas prices coming down quite consistently for the last month-plus.

Not to mention, better news for Biden in terms of "getting things done" while little things will add up, like GOP voting against constantly popular issues like same sex marriage rights, contraception, abortion rights, etc.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1552324255316119553?t=bId9UIBpS7GpMm-FbIbd-A&s=19

Democracy Corps

GCB

50/48

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, this forum is truly a special level of dumb. RV polls don't mean anything.

Your R nut map has -0 probability , these users make R nut maps and thinks it's gonna happen just like they made R nut map had Bevin winning over BESHEAR they were wrong then and wrong now

Progressive Moderate keeps sporting ab R nut map

[Devils30]

The topline number is still good for the GOP, problem is the momentum was continuous for them in the late months of 2010-14 and it does appear Dems are showing signs of late life. GOP is a big big favorite in the House but still probably have like a 20% chance of losing everything.

Other than the Dobbs report what else caused the shift in the momentum. Also, what do you think would shift it back in the GOPs favor?

Dobbs is the main driver, but there's also Trump being unfavorably back in the news due to the J6 hearings, and possibly gas prices coming down quite consistently for the last month-plus.

Not to mention, better news for Biden in terms of "getting things done" while little things will add up, like GOP voting against constantly popular issues like same sex marriage rights, contraception, abortion rights, etc.

The Manchin bill passing can’t hurt. Although just like Biden’s approval drop hasn’t hurt Ds, it rising 5% might not help as it will mainly get D voters anyway.

If I’m GOP I’d be a tad concerned about numbers with independents. Awful in GA PA races and let’s see what’s coming in Arizona after primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the same Politician account that made D nut maps in 2018 we don't know if it's the same user Solid said the old Politician gave it to someone else

Look thru the user prediction maps he made D nut maps thru 2018 and made one in 2020 but stopped posting in the Summer of 202o so whatever politician say ignore it

The old Politician tried to ban people for saying NV was Lean R when SISOLAK was losing to Laxalt now the account says Laxalt is a lock for NV and he hasn't lead in a single poll since Dobbs, lol Laxalt is a retread that's gonna lose Biggly on Eday

[wbrocks67]

Beacon Research did a poll, July 5-20 for some swing states that also included GCB

AZ GCB:
RV: R 41, D 41
LV: R 46, D 45

GA GCB:
RV: D 44, R 42
LV: R 48, D 46

NV GCB:
RV: D 43, R 40
LV: R 47, D 46

PA GCB:
RV: R 43, D 40
LV: R 47, D 42

https://www.environmentalvoter.org/sites/default/files/documents/july-2022-survey-topline-data.pdf

[philly09]

Data For Progress of all places has R+3 48-45. Taken July 13-25.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1553100942182055936

[UncleSam]

Data For Progress of all places has R+3 48-45. Taken July 13-25.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1553100942182055936

Is this actually a D-commissioned poll?

Low key think this might be a poll released to try to keep people invested / not getting complacent lol, not sure why a D polling firm would release it otherwise.

[kwabbit]

Data For Progress of all places has R+3 48-45. Taken July 13-25.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1553100942182055936

Is this actually a D-commissioned poll?

Low key think this might be a poll released to try to keep people invested / not getting complacent lol, not sure why a D polling firm would release it otherwise.

Data for Progress has been getting relatively GOP favorable numbers all cycle. They try to be innovative and honest about their methodology, so I just think that’s what they’re getting at the moment. They are a partisan pollster, but not really a partisan hack pollster.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, D4P is also the only pollster who found Walker up in the 7-8 recent polls (outside of Bolton's PAC but that's a whole other thing...)

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, D4P is also the only pollster who found Walker up in the 7-8 recent polls (outside of Bolton's PAC but that's a whole other thing...)

If the Generic Ballot is R+3, it makes sense for them to have Walker ahead in a state which is still more Republican than the nation. Besides, you left out the part where they had Walker ahead narrowly - with 49% to Warnock's 47%. Still a very close race!

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SalvantoCBS/status/1553750263168733185

[wbrocks67]

Here's the CBS/YouGov battleground tracker - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-house-2022-midterm-elections-opinion-poll-2022-07-31/

They also have a new LV poll for GCB at R+2, 45-43.

The latest poll seems modeled towards an R+4 electorate, which is what they expect right now in terms of turnout in Nov.

[Devils30]

Here's the CBS/YouGov battleground tracker - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-house-2022-midterm-elections-opinion-poll-2022-07-31/

They also have a new LV poll for GCB at R+2, 45-43.

The latest poll seems modeled towards an R+4 electorate, which is what they expect right now in terms of turnout in Nov.

It's a model not a poll. Dems up 7 with independents will not be R+2 under any circumstance. i have no idea what we can expect but Dems have plenty of high propensity suburban voters now. Using 2014 turnout models seems risky, these are high profile races and both sides will likely turn out big.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't really matter because a Prez race is right around the corner that Senate map in Casey, Stabenow and Kaine is not good in 24 if we lose control Adam Schiff said he will lead D's effort to take back 15 seats in 24, Rs had the exact number in 2018 and D's gained 12 seats, 12 seats is nothing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, D4P is also the only pollster who found Walker up in the 7-8 recent polls (outside of Bolton's PAC but that's a whole other thing...)

If the Generic Ballot is R+3, it makes sense for them to have Walker ahead in a state which is still more Republican than the nation. Besides, you left out the part where they had Walker ahead narrowly - with 49% to Warnock's 47%. Still a very close race!

Walker is down in Survey USA by 9 pts the same Surveys USA that predicted Warnock to beat Loeffler, the Rs aren't gonna sweep everything

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-favored-win-senate-first-time-538-1728325

Since Rs want to boast about the H D's have a better chance to have a 52/48 Senate and OH and NC are wave insurance but definitely we're gonna have a 52/48 Senate and Ron Johnson whom won by just 3 not 10 is DOA

[It’s so Joever]

Here's the CBS/YouGov battleground tracker - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-house-2022-midterm-elections-opinion-poll-2022-07-31/

They also have a new LV poll for GCB at R+2, 45-43.

The latest poll seems modeled towards an R+4 electorate, which is what they expect right now in terms of turnout in Nov.

RED WAVE COMING

[philly09]

The Youth Vote is energized.

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1553798953250050048

[Unelectable Bystander]

The Youth Vote is energized.

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1553798953250050048

He forgot to mention the part where voting intention is increased at every level and the youth vote is lagging the most by far.

Percentage of voters that are not definitely or probably voting in midterms, by age:
- 18-29 23%
- 30-44 16%
- 45-64 10%
- 65+ 3%

Older people are significantly outvoting younger people. In fact, the difference in voting intentions favors republicans across every demographic. It’s the same thing we saw in Virginia/New Jersey and it’s why Biden’s popularity matters immensely

[Unelectable Bystander]

The Youth Vote is energized.

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1553798953250050048

He forgot to mention the part where voting intention is increased at every level and the youth vote is lagging the most by far.

Percentage of voters that are not definitely or probably voting in midterms, by age:
- 18-29 23%
- 30-44 16%
- 45-64 10%
- 65+ 3%

Older people are significantly outvoting younger people. In fact, the difference in voting intentions favors republicans across every demographic. It’s the same thing we saw in Virginia/New Jersey and it’s why Biden’s popularity matters immensely

Forgot to mention, his statistic is pretty misleading. They have actual exit polls from 2018 so a GCB is not needed. CBS has Dems winning the under 30 vote 68-31 in 2018, which is pretty similar to the 66-24% margin currently reported. People just made up their minds earlier

[wbrocks67]

The Youth Vote is energized.

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1553798953250050048

He forgot to mention the part where voting intention is increased at every level and the youth vote is lagging the most by far.

Percentage of voters that are not definitely or probably voting in midterms, by age:
- 18-29 23%
- 30-44 16%
- 45-64 10%
- 65+ 3%

Older people are significantly outvoting younger people. In fact, the difference in voting intentions favors republicans across every demographic. It’s the same thing we saw in Virginia/New Jersey and it’s why Biden’s popularity matters immensely

Well, yeah though. Older people always outvote younger demographics. That's not anything new, so it really just depends on the exact numbers. Older voters can outvote younger votes all day, but if the youth vote is say, even on par or a few % more than it has been in the past, that's a huge deal, given the margins.

Youth vote will always lag. Always. For the rest of time lol.

I do think though pollsters need to stop asking 'enthusiastic' to vote and basing models around that. Especially with young people - if I asked those who I know *will 100%* vote this fall whether they're 'enthusiastic' to do it, probably all of them will say no, that's not the right word at all. But they're still going to vote no matter what. Just a bad barometer. Just ask people how sure they are and base it off of that.