2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Democrats surge into a ten point lead!
https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1395746724879216646?s=21

A lot of the GOP's optimism comes from historical trends, not actual polling for 2022.

To be fair, polling is unreliable at best. Answering polls have become associated with being a Democrat.

Polls struggle when Trump is on the ticket. When he's not, they're largely pretty accurate.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Since 2022 will almost certainly be a red wave year, Kelly and Warnock are clear underdogs. Deal with it.

Does Herschel Walker strike you as a powerhouse?

No, but we're polarized enough that candidate quality doesn't matter.

Senator Sara Gideon agrees.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

(R) poll has a tied GCB with 16% undecided:

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1417452357571563520

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1419770441191858181

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1419770441191858181

It's best to assume that almost all of the undecideds are Republican. So the GCB's probably tied, which means a strong GOP year.

You're actually hilariously unbearable

Muting him and MillenialModerate on election day was the best decision I've ever made, cleared up my Atlas experience significantly.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1443609309217234946

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Democrats were also up in late 2013 after Ted Cruz forced the government shutdown. Now, I'm not saying 2022 is going to be 2014 repeated, but it's obviously way too early for predictions. 14 months are a lifetime in politics.

ok, but this is a thread for posting generic ballot polls?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

It's easier to not argue schematics and just assume every competitive Senate/Governor race is gonna go to the GOP because B I D E N M I D T E R M

I hate being this guy but the word you're looking for is "semantics". I agree with the sentiment though.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1448284727543205889

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Imagine believing the Democrats are going to do 5 points better than in 2020 in a midterm when the incumbent Democratic president is nearly 10 points underwater. lo freaking l.

This is the generic ballot thread, I'm just posting polls as I see them, they're not an implicit endorsement of them on my part (IMO this one has way too many undecideds).

That said, IIRC you said the exact same thing about a Stansbury +13 poll, in the exact same rude, haughty tone, so maybe your feelings on polls don't always match with reality.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Imagine believing the Democrats are going to do 5 points better than in 2020 in a midterm when the incumbent Democratic president is nearly 10 points underwater. lo freaking l.

This is the generic ballot thread, I'm just posting polls as I see them, they're not an implicit endorsement of them on my part (IMO this one has way too many undecideds).

That said, IIRC you said the exact same thing about a Stansbury +13 poll, in the exact same rude, haughty tone, so maybe your feelings on polls don't always match with reality.

I don't think that's true (I think the poll was better for Stansbury than that) but I remember saying you guys are setting yourselves up for egg on your face if you believe a race is certain based off one poll. And I stand by that, despite it not coming into use for that election. This is about the generic ballot, a much more broad and certain measure than a congressional special election.

By the way the "believe" part wasn't directed at anyone in particular. It wasn't meant to be rude, it was a light-hearted post actually. But we know people out there will just believe any polls that are out there no matter how unrealistic they are. That's why I said "imagine".

Understood! Sorry for reading your post as targeted at me -- that was my bad.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I'd never noticed it before, but does Marco Rubio have really big ears?

Political caricaturists here had an absolute blast with him during the 2016 primary campaign.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1463500852094722054

Same poll has -7 for Biden's Approval (43-50)

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1523707506215763969

never heard of this firm, but another one for the pile

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

D+4 generic ballot on Morning Consult. Was D+2 on May 18th and EVEN on May 4th.
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1529451927565631488?s=20&t=GE_-ejk...

Does this imply a D trend? If so, Harris just came out with an R +2 poll and the highly regard YouGov is even R +4

Also, that Twitter account is quite bizarre. A dog asking for a treat for releasing (strictly D biased) polls?

It's a bot someone wrote that just reposts all polls that are plugged in to the 538 database. Whoever wrote it decided to make it look like it was his dog doing it. It's cute!

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Echelon Insights is a Poll done by "NEVER TRUMPERS" Kirsten Soltis Anderson, Alex Castellanos and the Lincoln Project so throw in the bin.

...this is a GCB poll. It doesn't even mention Trump.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1552097132156522497

Poll is from a Republican partisan org, and has Biden's approval at 36/54.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1585648868133412864

At this point RV is just not something that should even be considered in averages. We are within two weeks of the election, people know whether they’re gonna vote or not.

Except that likely voter models are more than just asking people whether they're gonna vote.  The pollster makes certain assumptions about turnout in their LV models, which may or may not turn out to be true.  Since this looks like a high-turnout election for both parties at this point, using an RV model is probably just as reasonable.

Also, IIRC there have been studies showing that voter intention actually isn't that predictive.  That is, following up with such voters after the election showed that a surprisingly low percentage (68% from memory, but that may be inaccurate) of the "definitely will vote" actually did vote, while a surprisingly high percentage of the "maybe" or "possibly" groups voted.

I think Pollster said in another thread that those models skew towards people who tend to answer questions with more certainty, which is often older men (someone correct me if i'm not remembering correctly).

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

If Slotkin is tied, that's basically what the 2020 result was in that district. So that would mean Dems are basically duplicating 2020 results there. How is that a wipe-out?

I would have to check the new district lines but yeah I’m not sure this is saying what he thinks it is.

new district was Biden +1

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

If Slotkin is tied, that's basically what the 2020 result was in that district. So that would mean Dems are basically duplicating 2020 results there. How is that a wipe-out?

I would have to check the new district lines but yeah I’m not sure this is saying what he thinks it is.

new district was Biden +1

Alright I'm guessing Slotkin overperformed/would overperform a bit even in a 2020 environment but this still is not a good "own", and I am not sure why. Like if anything, this is the type of poll I would expect from a D hack, not someone clearly trying to own the libs.

"Haha! looks like this midterm environment with an unpopular president is going to be fairly neutral! checkmate libtards!"

[does finger guns, moonwalks out of room]