2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

The GCB question in the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker had an error and has been removed from their data for surveys prior to this week, with the following disclaimer:

The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed.

The problem has been corrected for this week's survey, which shows D 43, R 40.

Would make sense why it randomly shifted to R+5 the past few weeks.

Though 43-40 is still useless though with so many undecideds, ugh.

Yes, it would.  I've dropped a note to 538 suggesting they remove the broken ones from their database.

[wbrocks67]

The GCB question in the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker had an error and has been removed from their data for surveys prior to this week, with the following disclaimer:

The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed.

The problem has been corrected for this week's survey, which shows D 43, R 40.

Would make sense why it randomly shifted to R+5 the past few weeks.

Though 43-40 is still useless though with so many undecideds, ugh.

Yes, it would.  I've dropped a note to 538 suggesting they remove the broken ones from their database.

Would also make sense as we noted last week - there was a huge disparity between the "preferred outcome" questions (D+2) and the GCB question (R+5)

Hopefully 538 drops them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Insights has D's 47/42 in GCB
https://mobile.twitter.com/polltrackerusa

[GeorgiaModerate]

The GCB question in the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker had an error and has been removed from their data for surveys prior to this week, with the following disclaimer:

The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed.

The problem has been corrected for this week's survey, which shows D 43, R 40.

Would make sense why it randomly shifted to R+5 the past few weeks.

Though 43-40 is still useless though with so many undecideds, ugh.

Yes, it would.  I've dropped a note to 538 suggesting they remove the broken ones from their database.

Would also make sense as we noted last week - there was a huge disparity between the "preferred outcome" questions (D+2) and the GCB question (R+5)

Hopefully 538 drops them.

G. Elliott Morris has a Twitter thread with more details on the methodology error at https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1544674762332557313.  He notes that the error was present in all surveys from April 30 through last week's.

[wbrocks67]

Malinowski (NJ-7) raises $1.3M in Q2, has $4.2M cash on hand

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-scores-humungous-fundraising-haul-in-nj-7-re-election-bid/

[Devils30]

Malinowski (NJ-7) raises $1.3M in Q2, has $4.2M cash on hand

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-scores-humungous-fundraising-haul-in-nj-7-re-election-bid/

One of the seats that Dobbs is a bad bet for Rs, even if Kean wins the GOP is on borrowed time here.

[wbrocks67]

> Pat Ryan (D, NY-19) raised over $1M in the 6 weeks since announcing his campaign; nearly 40% of which came in the week following the Dobbs ruling

> Susan Wild (D, PA-07), raised over $1M in Q2, contributions online from new donors doubled after Dobbs ruling

https://www.axios.com/2022/07/06/democrats-roe-v-wade-fundraising

[GeorgiaModerate]

The GCB question in the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker had an error and has been removed from their data for surveys prior to this week, with the following disclaimer:

The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed.

The problem has been corrected for this week's survey, which shows D 43, R 40.

Would make sense why it randomly shifted to R+5 the past few weeks.

Though 43-40 is still useless though with so many undecideds, ugh.

Yes, it would.  I've dropped a note to 538 suggesting they remove the broken ones from their database.

I got a reply that said they were going to keep the problematic polls in the database for now.

[wbrocks67]

The GCB question in the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker had an error and has been removed from their data for surveys prior to this week, with the following disclaimer:

The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed.

The problem has been corrected for this week's survey, which shows D 43, R 40.

Would make sense why it randomly shifted to R+5 the past few weeks.

Though 43-40 is still useless though with so many undecideds, ugh.

Yes, it would.  I've dropped a note to 538 suggesting they remove the broken ones from their database.

I got a reply that said they were going to keep the problematic polls in the database for now.

I was wondering, since they hadn't been removed yet. Total bad call by 538, the polls own organization said the data was terrible, so I can't imagine a single reason why they would need to keep them in at all.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1545096431605891075

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1545156380641959937

[Roll Roons]

Trone barely does his job as a Congressman anyway, so I'm not sure why he feels the need to pump so much of his personal fortune into keeping his seat.

Can't wait until Foldi shows him the door.

[Minnesota Mike]

Trone barely does his job as a Congressman anyway, so I'm not sure why he feels the need to pump so much of his personal fortune into keeping his seat.

Can't wait until Foldi shows him the door.

Isn't Parrott the favorite for the GOP nomination? Not sure a reporter for the Free Beacon who looks like he is 17 is that big of a threat in a Biden+10 district.

[Roll Roons]

Trone barely does his job as a Congressman anyway, so I'm not sure why he feels the need to pump so much of his personal fortune into keeping his seat.

Can't wait until Foldi shows him the door.

Isn't Parrott the favorite for the GOP nomination? Not sure a reporter for the Free Beacon who looks like he is 17 is that big of a threat in a Biden+10 district.

Foldi has been endorsed by Hogan and McCarthy.

Admittedly, I'm biased since I'm friends with Foldi and volunteering on his campaign. But he is working the district extremely hard while Parrott is barely campaigning. I think Foldi's youthfulness will prove to be a good contrast to Trone in the general.

[Minnesota Mike]

Trone barely does his job as a Congressman anyway, so I'm not sure why he feels the need to pump so much of his personal fortune into keeping his seat.

Can't wait until Foldi shows him the door.

Isn't Parrott the favorite for the GOP nomination? Not sure a reporter for the Free Beacon who looks like he is 17 is that big of a threat in a Biden+10 district.

Foldi has been endorsed by Hogan and McCarthy.

Admittedly, I'm biased since I'm friends with Foldi and volunteering on his campaign. But he is working the district extremely hard while Parrott is barely campaigning. I think Foldi's youthfulness will prove to be a good contrast to Trone in the general.

You would know the Republican race better than I. I was going off fundraising and 538 having Parrott being the likely GE candidate. Still looks like a likely D race to me though.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1545147318533513216

[JM1295]

Speaking of MD-06 and Foldi...

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1545153204211445760

[philly09]

Big Village
July 1-3. 1,008 A

Registered Voters:

Democrats 47.4%   

Republicans 41.6%

Would Not Vote 6.4%

Third Party Candidate 4.6%

Adults:

Democrats 40.5%

Republicans 36.3%

Would Not Vote 17.9%

Third Party Candidate 5.3%

This the highest the Democrats have gotten in these polls so far.

[philly09]

The GCB question in the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker had an error and has been removed from their data for surveys prior to this week, with the following disclaimer:

The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed.

The problem has been corrected for this week's survey, which shows D 43, R 40.

With 11% Not sure.

40I, 32D, 27R

35% voted for Biden, 33% Did not vote, and 32% voted for Trump.

64% say Biden won legit, 36% say he did not. An improvement.

Democrats need to get the I's. If the 11% goes for them it's D14

[wbrocks67]

538 still refusing to remove the wrong YouGov/Economist polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From a Democratic strategist, but still interesting:

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1545389554743627777

[It’s so Joever]

This is a typical midterm, Dems will lose big time, the only question is when do the polls move in the GOP favor like they did for 2014.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is a typical midterm, Dems will lose big time, the only question is when do the polls move in the GOP favor like they did for 2014.

Before this Spring I would have agreed with this, but things have changed.  A typical midterm features high motivation by the party out of power and lower motivation by the party in power.  The overturning of Roe v Wade, by all indications, is amping up Democratic energy to a competitive level.  This is not to say that the normal midterm advantage for the out party has been wiped out; that is unlikely.  But it's fair to say that it looks like the advantage will be considerably reduced from a typical midterm.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is a typical midterm, Dems will lose big time, the only question is when do the polls move in the GOP favor like they did for 2014.

Before this Spring I would have agreed with this, but things have changed.  A typical midterm features high motivation by the party out of power and lower motivation by the party in power.  The overturning of Roe v Wade, by all indications, is amping up Democratic energy to a competitive level.  This is not to say that the normal midterm advantage for the out party has been wiped out; that is unlikely.  But it's fair to say that it looks like the advantage will be considerably reduced from a typical midterm.

Or more likely , elections are just high turnout now and we aren’t ever going back to pre Trump era voter turnout .  Keep in mind the Virginia gubernatorial race was very high turnout for an off year election as T-Mac won more votes than Northam and still lost .


 

[2016]

This is a typical midterm, Dems will lose big time, the only question is when do the polls move in the GOP favor like they did for 2014.

Before this Spring I would have agreed with this, but things have changed.  A typical midterm features high motivation by the party out of power and lower motivation by the party in power.  The overturning of Roe v Wade, by all indications, is amping up Democratic energy to a competitive level.  This is not to say that the normal midterm advantage for the out party has been wiped out; that is unlikely.  But it's fair to say that it looks like the advantage will be considerably reduced from a typical midterm.

Or more likely , elections are just high turnout now and we aren’t ever going back to pre Trump era voter turnout .  Keep in mind the Virginia gubernatorial race was very high turnout for an off year election as T-Mac won more votes than Northam and still lost .


 

Yes, I whole heartedly agree what OSR is saying here. The Notion that Higher Turnout automatically benefits Democrats is becoming a false narrative. Harry Enten of CNN already debunked it.