2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[President Johnson]

Well, the polls is Quinnipiac. It remains to be seen whether these polls are more accurate again in 2022 without Trump on the ballot and pollsters potentially fixing their issues. If the polls are more like in 2018, when they were relatively accurate, this isn't a bad sign. It's still way too early though.

[President Johnson]

The said poll may be flawed, though I wouldn't be that surprised if it's currently around tied. If that was the case or Republicans are ahead, I'm so free to say the public hast lost its collective mind if they actually want the Republican Party just remotely back in power after what happened in last few years from the Tea Party to Trump. This is a party that in large parts openly despises democracy and downplayed or supported an insurrection/coup attempt; it should essentially have no business in governing for the rest of this decade. For four years, they have embraced or ignored corruption, selfenrichment, utter neglance and gross incompetence at the highest levels of government. I can't really comprehend how anyone would want this sh*tshow back?

[President Johnson]

Democrats were also up in late 2013 after Ted Cruz forced the government shutdown. Now, I'm not saying 2022 is going to be 2014 repeated, but it's obviously way too early for predictions. 14 months are a lifetime in politics.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1542228065123811329

Any guesses?

I would guess Ds taking the senate/ adding seats?

Or Democrats projected to suffer a wipeout bigger than 2010?

[President Johnson]

Cygnal (R) has GCB tied now at 47-47.

Their last poll in mid-June had R+4, 49-45.

https://www.cygn.al/july-national-voter-trends-panel/

Somehow it feels like Democrats have gained around across the board in recent weeks. Of course, doesn't matter much as the election is months away.

[President Johnson]

i'm shook y'all

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1554844970426703874

This is definitely becoming a trend, isn't it? Hopefully this keeps up or at least doesn't reverse again. Biden needs to get remainders of BBB passed as soon as possible. Not that its impact would be felt in time, but it may very well get some Democrats and other progressives back on board or out to the polls in November.

However, in recent cycles Democrats mostly looked stronger in the summer. So there's still too much time left for any predictions and way too early to be relieved already.

[President Johnson]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562475059574235138

!

51.3% would be pretty ironic. That's exactly the vote share Biden got in 2020. Actually slightly more than the House popular vote was. In 2008, Obama got slightly less than House Democrats.

[President Johnson]

Oh boy, the Republicans really are going to fumble away this "red wave" year, aren't they? But go ahead and continue to cling to Donald Trump.

What's so incredibly hilarious about that is Republicans apparently not realizing Trump already lost them the House, Senate and White House in a matter of four years. The last president with this noble accomplishment is Herbert Hoover.

Just try to imagine Republicans clinging to him in 1934 or Democrats embracing Carter in 1982. Yes, these lost by much bigger margins, but the era of landslides is over due to polarization. Trump still got his a-- kicked out by over seven million votes.

[President Johnson]

Politico/Morning Consult steady at D+5 this week, 47-42

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/31061407/2208180_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_08-31-22_SH.pdf

Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues?

National Security: R+11
Inflation: R+10
Economy: R+10
Immigration: R+6
Jobs: R+4
Guns: D+5
Energy: D+6
Education: D+9
Voting rights: D+11
COVID: D+13
Healthcare: D+15
Medicare and SS: D+15
Environment: D+22
Climate change: D+25

It is insane that people trust Republicans more on national security after the Trump documents scandal. Jobs and the economy too, given the records of the past several Republican and Democratic presidents.

Yeah, the only explanation to me at this point is that the Democrats need to get a lot smarter with their messaging on these issues.

As of for the economy, left-liberal parties always tend to do worse because people usually assign tax cuts and deregulation with a strong economy what benefits right of center parties. Such feelings and assumptions are often hard to beat even when facts tell otherwise.

[President Johnson]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

That is very much consistent with the hypothesis that after Dobbs, there are more shy GOP voters now. That's what I happen to believe.

That ...does not line up with the reality of the special elections.

It does line up with SnowLabrador's belief that Republicans are always favored, though, and that any event helps them electorally.

[President Johnson]

I really don't get it why Republicans have such an edge in the economy? It's out of question that the economy has done better under Democratic presidents since at least the end of the Cold War. Don't people remember this? What proposals have Republicans even introduced in terms of the economy other than tax cuts for the super rich? They're even too busy fighting culture wars than introduce serious proposals. The Democrats really need to work on this issue and gain an edge here.

I guess it's just common "gut feeling" Republicans are better on that, and it's hard to argue with numbers and statistics against that.

[President Johnson]

Scott not mentioning NH despite the NRSC/SLF pumping $20M+ into that race for Bolduc is... a choice

I think it's possible he just forgot about it?

[President Johnson]

Glad to see Dems are in good shape in PA-17.

DeLuzio outraised Shaffer by double in Q3 - $1.46M to $720K

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1581358010718224384

These #s for PA-06 are also painful for the GOP

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1581272551611072513

Fundraising numbers mean nothing lol.

On Atlas, many fellow bloggers think:

Democrats outraising Republicans: Fundraising means nothing, candidates with smaller warchests often win as well

Republicans outraising Democrats: These fundraising numbers clearly indicate Democrats are headed for a major defeat

[President Johnson]

I'm just going to lay this out in advance now if things do go catastrophically: if Dems lose both the House and the Senate this November, then the entire leadership needs to be purged. Pelosi, Hoyer, Schumer, Biden, Harris, Durbin, all of them. Burn it to the ground and start over, because everything that we think we know about politics is probably wrong anyway, and the option that would have been considered electoral suicide in any other scenario might actually be the only way to save the country. If the public can't recognize the threat the Republicans present because the present Dem leadership is too incompetent to portray it correctly, then we need to find literally anyone else who can get the point across.

Maybe this is unpopular or controversial to say, I would not just blame it on Democratic leadership but on voters themselves. Maybe they deserve it then? You don't need Biden or Schumer to tell you about the danger most Republican candidates running pose. A person who intends to vote should be capable of informing themselves and think about it.

[President Johnson]

Everyone: noo not every race is a dead heat there is such thing as polarization noo
RCP: haha tossup go brr

https://twitter.com/ashleymoirDC/status/1588573078782894081

North Carolina Lean Republican, but Colorado (!) and Washington state tossups? And New York just Likely Schumer? You RCP guys are clowns.

[President Johnson]

Their bromance is so awesome

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1589648880810852353