2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Person Man]

My view is that repubs win the house pop vote by a point of 2, and flip about 17 seats

They maintain their margins with WWC, make some inroads with the suburbs, and lose some ground with Latinos

That actually seems reasonable.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1431293258223718403

And then there’s polls like this.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1451541777572368391?s=20

that's the result they had in 2020 and very close to their 2018 one.

[Person Man]

Republicans do not need to win the House Vote in 2022 to retake the House.

Even if Democrats win let's say 49-47 in 2022 Republicans would take the House.

They only won by 3 in 2020 and the map should be slightly better for them.

[Person Man]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

With all due respect, if you still believe any poll that has dems leading on the GB after what just happened, I don't know what to tell you

I didn't say I believed it, did I? Please don't put words in my mouth. My point is that people will run with whatever one they believe the most. People love the Dems in Disarray narrative, so naturally the Suffolk poll got a lot of mileage. This one doesn't say that, so it won't.

My thoughts are it goes into the average. The average is basically tied right now, which seems reasonable.

The CGB is definitely not tied right now. Everything about this past Tuesday indicates an environment at least R+5, maybe more.

If we went by the results in 2009, they had an R+20 at this point.

[Person Man]

New CNN poll (Nov 1-4) has GCB at D+5

Democrats 49%
Republicans 44%

I'm sure it will get the same amount of coverage as the Suffolk poll though!

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-job-approval/index.html

With all due respect, if you still believe any poll that has dems leading on the GB after what just happened, I don't know what to tell you

I didn't say I believed it, did I? Please don't put words in my mouth. My point is that people will run with whatever one they believe the most. People love the Dems in Disarray narrative, so naturally the Suffolk poll got a lot of mileage. This one doesn't say that, so it won't.

My thoughts are it goes into the average. The average is basically tied right now, which seems reasonable.

The CGB is definitely not tied right now. Everything about this past Tuesday indicates an environment at least R+5, maybe more.

If we went by the results in 2009, they had an R+20 at this point.

Virginia Gov indicated R+16, NJ indicated R+11, if you go strictly by PVI. State races weren't as nationalized then. I imagine if Deeds brought in the entirety of the Democratic party, maybe he would've lost by 11 instead of 17.

The fact that the main races of Tuesday had congruent results, along with the multitude of downballot races across the nation that went hard for Republicans, would suggest at least R+5. The gubernatorial elections themselves imply R+8, so I am discounting the result to an extent.

I would say GCB of R+5 is what we would have if the election was today.

[Person Man]

Huge opening for Andrew Yang’s Forward Party

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1458606105848954883?s=21

or whatever it’s called

This is the poll that had Biden in the 30s?

[Person Man]

Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

A lot of the people who disapprove Biden probably disapprove of Republicans more. I can see a result where about an even amount of people on each quickly make up their minds and vote, but that the remaining 10% break 2:1 GOP when they get in the voting booth. That gives the Republicans a 3-4% win and with the degerrymandering, probably gives us a result similar to the edge the GOP had between 1995 and 2007. Between 225 and 235 seats.  It will take a LOT to get the big margins in Congress they had in 2011, 2015, 2017 and in the 1920s.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1521858137753542656?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogl...

YouGov has D+6 on the generic ballot with no undecideds. Does OC run YouGov's polls?

There's no undecided voters b/c YouGov (smartly) made voters pick a side.

This is reasonable if Roe goes the way many people are expecting it to.

[Person Man]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

Anecdotal evidence is notoriously not worth much, but I will say that I have a fair number of younger, left-wing friends who simultaneously think the Democratic party leadership (both Biden and the Congress) is woefully out of touch with the problems they face, and who also would never vote for the Republican party under any circumstances. Finding a way to turn out those sorts of young voters - edit: while also not alienating other persuadable voters - is going to be very important for any Dem who wants to hold on in a difficult national electoral environment.

Yeah, I think the best realistic Dem scenario is all of the GOP Senate candidates flame out due to abortion stances and they pick up 2 seats while losing House but keeping GOP to a 12 seat or so gain. It is not going to be a R+7 vote like VA and NJ suggested, both had considerably better candidates than anything GOP will offer in swing states in 2022. I think the lack of rape exceptions on abortion is going to trip up some Rs, this position is supported by a fringe 5-10% of the country and as toxic as defunding the police.

Lol D+2 in the senate and R+12 in the house is very optimistic for Ds. That’s basically an R+1-2 vote.

I agree, I think the Roe mess probably turned a R+7 election into an R+3-4 one. With redistricting, Democrats might have a chance to take the House back if they win the White House.

[Person Man]

Sabato/Kondik update their House Ratings after the June 7th Primaries


Republican 214
Democrat 193
Toss Up 28

It substantiates my thinking that Republicans had a "good year" if they win 20 seats and a landslide if they win 30 or more(all the tossups plus some safer Democratic ones). If they win more than 30, I think Biden should probably retire. It would mean the brand has gotten toxic under him.

[Person Man]

Who knew trying to install a theocracy wouldn’t be that popular?

[Person Man]

This could really be a 2002 situation.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562475059574235138

!

51.3% would be pretty ironic. That's exactly the vote share Biden got in 2020. Actually slightly more than the House popular vote was. In 2008, Obama got slightly less than House Democrats.

If the GCB is 2%, I can see a situation where very few seats actually trade hands.

[Person Man]

Data for Progress GCB at R+1, 46-45.

Their last two polls were R+4 and R+3.

July 13-25: R+3 (48-45)
Aug 1-2: R+4 (48-44)
Aug 12-28: R+1 (46-45)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/generic-congressional-ballot

I would have said throw it in the average if it wasn't DFP. They are garbage

Didn’t they underestimate NY-19 by 13%?

[Person Man]

2014.pdf downloading 30% complete

2014 is actually a fitting comparison. In my opinion, GOP is going to do really well in some seats Biden won by a decent margin(RI 02, OR 06, IL 06, etc) and yet they will underperform in several others(ME 02 PA Sen AZ Sen etc)

Its more like 2014 never really ended rather than it coming back.

[Person Man]

Morning Consult midterm tracker updated.

Latest update has GCB at D+4, 48-44. It was 47-45 last week.

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

So yeah. They’re struggling a little more.

[Person Man]

RCP 9/13/14: R +3.9
RCP 9/13/22: D +0.5

This could be a credible neutral election.

[Person Man]

538 now predicts the chances of the Rs winning outright and the Ds winning outright are the same.

[Person Man]

If there were just less undecideds in these polls.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1570051543604383744

Is there movement?

[Person Man]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

[Person Man]

Data for Progress has R+2 on their latest GCB. Their last was R+1.

Kinda confirms their continuing more GOP-leaning streak so far this cycle.

The fiasco in New York was something. I don’t really buy district level polling by that much but come on!

[Person Man]

The Democrats need to win the Popular Vote on the House Generic Ballot by 3 Points or more, I personally think closer to 5 Points to have a shot at retaining the House.

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1571490482714206208

There are some good and bad News for both Parties in the NBC Poll. Democrats leading Republicans 58-38 among White College Graduates and 53-40 among Women is bad News for Republicans. But in away I expected the Women Gap given the Dobbs Decision (Republicans probably bleeding White Suburban Women with a College Degree)

However the bad News for Democrats is that they are trailing Republicans by even wider margins about Whites without a College Degree (31/64). They also trailing among Independents (37/43) and only have a 46-42 lead among Hispanics.

I just cannot see Democrats retaining the House of Representatives if the lose Independents and winning Hispanics by only 4 Points. Just not happening.

Kentucky & Indiana have Statewide Races and close early. It will be interesting to see how Booker in KY does in the Cincinnati Suburbs (Kenton County, Boone County, Campbell County) and how McDermott will perform in the Donut Counties around Indianapolis.

Indiana could give us some clues how the Abortion Issue plays out. Indiana does have one of the most restrictive Abortion Laws.

I think if Democrats won by 1 or 2, it could possibly be very close.

[Person Man]

I feel pretty good about this NBC poll because if I remember correctly, they have never in the last decade been biased towards republicans in terms of the final margin, they’ve only been accurate or biased towards democrats.

I’m starting to agree with Russ Feingold that this will be a “candidate quality wave”. These issue ratings are absolutely awful for democrats and I think that any republican in a competitive district without baggage will be able to sweep the undecideds easily and perform like it’s a wave. Anybody with a habit of saying stupid things (personified by the trio of Walker, Masters, and Oz but also existing in the house) will have a battle and probably lose if their opponent can make the case that they are not problematic (even if they’re a party line liberal).

People are more willing than you think in green lighting people who are pretty extreme if they think the other guy is incompetent.

[Person Man]

I really don't get it why Republicans have such an edge in the economy? It's out of question that the economy has done better under Democratic presidents since at least the end of the Cold War. Don't people remember this? What proposals have Republicans even introduced in terms of the economy other than tax cuts for the super rich? They're even too busy fighting culture wars than introduce serious proposals. The Democrats really need to work on this issue and gain an edge here.

I guess it's just common "gut feeling" Republicans are better on that, and it's hard to argue with numbers and statistics against that.

The thing is that the Republicans have *always* had an advantage in polling on the economy relative to other issues - even when the economy is doing noticeably worse than average under a Republican President or noticeably better than average under a Democratic President. In fact, I'm not sure even in the waning days of the Bush presidency during total collapse of the financial sector that the Democrats actually polled better than the Republicans on the economy, and, even if they did, the economy continued to be a relative strong point for the Republicans compared to other major issues of the time, such as healthcare or nebulous points such as "jobs" that are often polled separately from the economy.

I agree with you that the polling reveals that the public has a built-in bias to believe that the Republicans are "the economy party" and just better at running the economy, regardless of whether that is true. I think it comes in part from a fairly accurate perception that the Republicans are the party of business combined with some logical errors on whether the interests of business are actually aligned with the interests of the economy writ large as well as the idea built into American politics that regulatory actions and taxes are always a trade-off with economic strength (an idea that I think even many right-wing economists would reject, let alone those from the center or the left). I'm not sure therefore if it's really worth it for the Democrats to try fighting on this battlefield that is inherently tilted against them: Focus on their strengths instead, and try to change the dialogue long-term around economic policy.

Definitely one of those issues where we have to get people thinking again, and not racing to change their mind (which currently can't be changed because it's on autopilot).