2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1361663137179709440?s=20

Dems best possible candidate (out performed Trump by almost 30 points), but he won't win this federal race and this will almost certainly result in the flip of his state house seat.

https://twitter.com/cutler_bryant/status/1361704764585762819

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1361663137179709440?s=20

Dems best possible candidate (out performed Trump by almost 30 points), but he won't win this federal race and this will almost certainly result in the flip of his state house seat.

https://twitter.com/cutler_bryant/status/1361704764585762819

This feels like a Hail Mary though I’m curious why he overpreform’s so much.

My guess is it has something to do with Lumbee voters splitting their tickets because of parochial issues (Graham is Lumbee and has been representing the area since before Trump made big gains with those voters).

His Republican opponent Oxendine was also Lumbee and she's an elected school board chair. She's probably likely to replace him.

This is an ancestrally D area trending R fast, so his Democratic replacement probably gets curb stomped against a strong R like Oxendine.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/alaynatreene/status/1375047617999175680?s=20

These are the right targets, and it is good they're going in early.

[Young Conservative]

Did we ever get any fundraising numbers for TX-06?

They're coming out in pieces today.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1384250156183220225

[Young Conservative]

Crist isn't beating DeSantis especially not without HR 1, since DeSantis already up by 5/10 and he will Redistrict the map the way he wants and voter Suppression Laws passed

....how is redistricting going to affect a statewide race?

[Young Conservative]

The Democratic lead on the generic ballot surged to an incredible ten points in August.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1428808044251598858

Seems like an outlier. That said, normally the previous President doesn't insert themselves in the midterms as much.

If you believe this is any way accurate...I have some Enron stock to sell you.

[Young Conservative]

Very hard to square a D+4 GCB / Biden -3 approval with a Biden -31 approval rating in IA (from a far more reliable pollster), even if we assume that there’s a large cohort of D-leaning voters who disapprove of Biden but won’t vote R like in 2014. This is going to be another "pick out and believe in the numbers/polls you want" election.

You're absolutely correct, but I also think - as we've spoken a bit about - that Biden's approval should be taken a bit differently than Trumps. Trump had a die hard base who would approve no matter what, and then he had everyone else who disapproved. So that battle lines were drawn and more clear.

Bidens approval is a bit more murky IMO - because I think you have more Ds or D-leaning folks who may 'disapprove' for whatever reason but are still never going to vote R. I think D/D-leaning are more open to admitting they disapprove (but still vote D) versus most Republicans are going to support Trump absolutely no matter what.

So essentially, even if Biden has a -30 in Iowa, he could still have many of those folks who still would lean D instead of R if forced to choose in an election.

But I also do think that the IA poll is just really severe. -30 is a clear outlier even for IA

Cope.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1455870033867988998

LOL VA10 is obviously shrinking so much.  All the way back to Leesburg.

IN01 is even a bigger meme.

IN01 seems like it could genuinely be in play given Dem collapse in working class areas of  south Jersey yesterday and general trends.

The new VA10 obviously not.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1490722959174033415?s=20&t=ITYsve6...

lol safe R.

[Young Conservative]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/us/politics/online-fundraising-republicans-democrats.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

Online fund-raising has slowed across much of the Republican Party in recent months, an unusual pullback of small donors that has set off a mad rush among Republican political operatives to understand why — and reverse the sudden decline before it damages the party’s chances this fall.

Small-dollar donations typically increase as an election nears. But just the opposite has happened in recent months across a wide range of Republican entities, including every major party committee and former President Donald J. Trump’s political operation.

The total amount donated online fell by more than 12 percent across all federal Republican campaigns and committees in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, according to an analysis of federal records from WinRed, the main online Republican donation-processing portal.

The economy is worsening, and GOP small dollar donors are more working class than the college educated wine moms who dominate ActBlue. This makes sense to me.

[Young Conservative]

NYT/Siena is in the field with another national poll now, per NYT's "The Tilt" newsletter.

Disappointed to see that Nate/NYT just seemed to ditch house AND state polling at this point.

From a business perspective, I guess it makes sense. Let's be real, the people waiting around for house/state polls from the NYT....definitely already read the NYT anyway.

[Young Conservative]

Andddd Rasmussen back to R+7 in the GCB lol

2 weeks ago: R+1
1 week ago: R+4
this week: R+7

momentum!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1580931653135785985

Slay