Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Duke of York]

Yard signs as a campaign tactic are intended to increase the perception of social acceptability for supporting the candidate - the idea is that they reinforce the idea that "you are not alone."

The data do show that this does tend to have non-negligible effects on independent/non-ideological voters who live in highly partisan areas, which is why you will often see R signs in D areas, and vice versa. There is some great writing about how Doug Jones' 2017 campaign made great use of this tactic in the Birmingham suburbs and Mobile area.

Data also show that they are far more effective in local races and ballot measure campaigns.

yard signs don't vote.

[Canis]

Yard signs as a campaign tactic are intended to increase the perception of social acceptability for supporting the candidate - the idea is that they reinforce the idea that "you are not alone."

The data do show that this does tend to have non-negligible effects on independent/non-ideological voters who live in highly partisan areas, which is why you will often see R signs in D areas, and vice versa. There is some great writing about how Doug Jones' 2017 campaign made great use of this tactic in the Birmingham suburbs and Mobile area.

Data also show that they are far more effective in local races and ballot measure campaigns.

I'd be interested to see that writing about Doug Jones's campaign. When I went through the National Democrat Training Committee's TAP Training Program they advised us to not use campaign signs because they're costly and ineffective. They suggested Mailers are a much more efficient method of campaigning along with just plain old door-to-door conversations with voters. So that's where I was coming from on that pretty much they said signs don't sway nearly enough voters for the price tag it takes to produce and distribute them along with collecting them after the election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1437768503499575298

lmao

After the recall results this looks like an even better campaign tactic.

[Pollster]

Yard signs as a campaign tactic are intended to increase the perception of social acceptability for supporting the candidate - the idea is that they reinforce the idea that "you are not alone."

The data do show that this does tend to have non-negligible effects on independent/non-ideological voters who live in highly partisan areas, which is why you will often see R signs in D areas, and vice versa. There is some great writing about how Doug Jones' 2017 campaign made great use of this tactic in the Birmingham suburbs and Mobile area.

Data also show that they are far more effective in local races and ballot measure campaigns.

yard signs don't vote.

Yes - they are purely a psychological tactic. Almost a form of electoral gaslighting.

[Pollster]

Yard signs as a campaign tactic are intended to increase the perception of social acceptability for supporting the candidate - the idea is that they reinforce the idea that "you are not alone."

The data do show that this does tend to have non-negligible effects on independent/non-ideological voters who live in highly partisan areas, which is why you will often see R signs in D areas, and vice versa. There is some great writing about how Doug Jones' 2017 campaign made great use of this tactic in the Birmingham suburbs and Mobile area.

Data also show that they are far more effective in local races and ballot measure campaigns.

I'd be interested to see that writing about Doug Jones's campaign. When I went through the National Democrat Training Committee's TAP Training Program they advised us to not use campaign signs because they're costly and ineffective. They suggested Mailers are a much more efficient method of campaigning along with just plain old door-to-door conversations with voters. So that's where I was coming from on that pretty much they said signs don't sway nearly enough voters for the price tag it takes to produce and distribute them along with collecting them after the election.

They’re mostly right - it’s not the right strategy for every race (and certainly wasn’t the right strategy for Trump).

Here’s the article.

[Oryxslayer]

Washington Post endorsed TMac today to the surprise of nobody.

[Devils30]

The GOP's performance in SoCal was very bad for their chances of taking back the HoD in Virginia. If Dems are winning Orange County, they're probably doing well enough to hold at least the 52 seats that were Biden+10 or more.

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes.  NOVA has a lot of hispanic and asian voters similar to Orange County.  The white voters are going to skew a lot more liberal on social issues. It's probably fair to say that Fairfax county votes at least 10 points to the left of whatever the final OC margin is. 

Elder was extremely weak at the top of the ticket there but I'm not sure how much that mattered, Dems were going to vote Dem anyway.  Plus, the GOP has a fairly weak (not as weak as Elder) candidate at the top of the ticket in VA too.

[Oryxslayer]

Yes.  NOVA has a lot of hispanic and asian voters similar to Orange County.  The white voters are going to skew a lot more liberal on social issues. It's probably fair to say that Fairfax county votes at least 10 points to the left of whatever the final OC margin is. 

Elder was extremely weak at the top of the ticket there but I'm not sure how much that mattered, Dems were going to vote Dem anyway.  Plus, the GOP has a fairly weak (not as weak as Elder) candidate at the top of the ticket in VA too.

Of course, please remember that East Coast demos =/= west coast demos, despite the uniform header. Lots more carribeans than mexicans, lots more South Asians than vietnamese and koreans. Generally a much higher democratic baseline.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

The debate just started on C-SPAN now.

[Gass3268]

T-Mac has jokes

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1438642408212910083?s=21

[Non Swing Voter]

Virginians are trained to change the channel or mute it every time Youngkin comes on (once every 5 mins) so the idea of a "joint vaccine PSA" would just be a waste of money like all of Youngkin's other ads.  Why doesn't Youngkin stop wasting so much money on his failed campaign and donate it to vaccine research?

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Youngkin says he is pro-life but opposes the Texas-style abortion law.

[Non Swing Voter]

Since I wrote this 2 Youngkin ads have come on.  Both featuring Sheriffs.  It should be illegal for them to be partisan actors.  Who would think they would investigate crimes fairly.

[Non Swing Voter]

Youngkin says he is pro-life but opposes the Texas-style abortion law.

So his position is that he'll lose by 10 points but not 30.

[swf541]

Virginians are trained to change the channel or mute it every time Youngkin comes on (once every 5 mins) so the idea of a "joint vaccine PSA" would just be a waste of money like all of Youngkin's other ads.  Why doesn't Youngkin stop wasting so much money on his failed campaign and donate it to vaccine research?

Lol yes, I'm extremely sick of seeing his ads and im in western MD.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: This is a sleeper race, and Youngkin has about a 30% chance of winning. We've barely goten any polling, and what we do have are Youngkin internals. McAuliffe hasn't released any internals, which is a sign of weakness.

[swf541]

Hot take: This is a sleeper race, and Youngkin has about a 30% chance of winning. We've barely goten any polling, and what we do have are Youngkin internals. McAuliffe hasn't released any internals, which is a sign of weakness.

Well yes, this is a hot take lol

[Skill and Chance]

Who's winning the debate?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Hot take: This is a sleeper race, and Youngkin has about a 30% chance of winning. We've barely goten any polling, and what we do have are Youngkin internals. McAuliffe hasn't released any internals, which is a sign of weakness.

Honest question: Why are you how you are?

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: This is a sleeper race, and Youngkin has about a 30% chance of winning. We've barely goten any polling, and what we do have are Youngkin internals. McAuliffe hasn't released any internals, which is a sign of weakness.

Honest question: Why are you how you are?

I'm simply pointing out that the fact that McAuliffe hasn't released any internals speaks volumes as to the state of this race.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Since I wrote this 2 Youngkin ads have come on.  Both featuring Sheriffs.  It should be illegal for them to be partisan actors.  Who would think they would investigate crimes fairly.

That came on the other night and I made snorting sounds throughout the entire ad.

Virginia cops are some of the most corrupt sons of bitches (and military rejects, especially in Virginia Beach) I've ever seen.

[Non Swing Voter]

Hot take: This is a sleeper race, and Youngkin has about a 30% chance of winning. We've barely goten any polling, and what we do have are Youngkin internals. McAuliffe hasn't released any internals, which is a sign of weakness.

Honest question: Why are you how you are?

I'm simply pointing out that the fact that McAuliffe hasn't released any internals speaks volumes as to the state of this race.

Dude are you seriously concerned that Youngkin could win?  Trust me, I am not one to make bold predictions and there is 0.00000000% chance Youngkin wins.  There is a 1% chance Youngkin loses by less than 5.  There is a 30% chance he loses by less than 8.  There is a 50% chance he loses by less than 10.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: This is a sleeper race, and Youngkin has about a 30% chance of winning. We've barely goten any polling, and what we do have are Youngkin internals. McAuliffe hasn't released any internals, which is a sign of weakness.

Honest question: Why are you how you are?

I'm simply pointing out that the fact that McAuliffe hasn't released any internals speaks volumes as to the state of this race.

Dude are you seriously concerned that Youngkin could win?  Trust me, I am not one to make bold predictions and there is 0.00000000% chance Youngkin wins.  There is a 1% chance Youngkin loses by less than 5.  There is a 30% chance he loses by less than 8.  There is a 50% chance he loses by less than 10.

Off-year elections can have unpredictable turnout dynamics.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Youngkin supports qualified immunity. Yeah, you're going down, f#cker.