Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Riggleman is "open to Biden admin job"

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1332748482109698049

Wiki says he was on financial service-related committees. I don't see Biden giving a Republican much influence over economic or monetary policy, but the executive branch is big enough...

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

If McAuliffe wins it will be a result of having a proven track record as governor already and the state's further increasing liberal bent.

If Youngkin wins it will be a result of a depressed Democratic turnout in DC area and a very strong Republican turnout in places like Chesterfield and Virginia Beach. Also, it will have also been a result of Youngkin doing better than expected in the debates and being able to tie McAuliffe to Biden somehow.

Attacking a president who's not underwater isn't going to help very much. Also, GE debates change nobody's mind.

Military issues would definitely be more effective as a national issue than a state one, even in vet-heavy Virginia.

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The debate just started on C-SPAN now.

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Youngkin says he is pro-life but opposes the Texas-style abortion law.

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Since I wrote this 2 Youngkin ads have come on.  Both featuring Sheriffs.  It should be illegal for them to be partisan actors.  Who would think they would investigate crimes fairly.

That came on the other night and I made snorting sounds throughout the entire ad.

Virginia cops are some of the most corrupt sons of bitches (and military rejects, especially in Virginia Beach) I've ever seen.

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Youngkin supports qualified immunity. Yeah, you're going down, f#cker.

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What is turnout in the Hampton Roads area looking like?

Norfolk is boring. I just voted an hour ago and turnout is about what I expected. Not that Norfolk is a bellwether in any sense.

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https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455980091893235716?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

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https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455980091893235716?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

Asians are a relatively insignificant group as far as percentage of electorate unless you're on the West Coast or Hawaii. So how is knowing what the Asian vote in Virginia did even statistically measurable to a high degree of accuracy in an exit poll?

I think you are missing the forest for the trees.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Virginia could ban abortions after 20 weeks with the help of one particular, maverick Democratic Senator (and a Republican Lt. Governor who can then break the tie in the evenly-divided state Senate):

Virginia GOP supports new abortion restrictions. A key Democrat may support it, too

Here is the summary of the bill in question:

Creates the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act. The Act prohibits an abortion after 20 weeks gestation unless, in reasonable medical judgment, the mother has a condition that so complicates her medical condition as to necessitate the abortion to avert her death or to avert serious risk of substantial and irreversible physical impairment of a major bodily function. When an abortion is not prohibited post-20 weeks' gestation, the physician or authorized nurse practitioner is required to terminate the pregnancy in a manner that would provide the unborn child the best opportunity to survive. The bill punishes performance of an abortion in violation of the Act as a Class 6 felony. The bill also provides for civil remedies against a physician or authorized nurse practitioner who performs an abortion in violation of the Act.

The Democrat in question just so happens to be the pedophile Northam pardoned.

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Governor Youngkin's abortion ban proposal has opposing Virginia Democrats fired up
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin unveiled the abortion measures in his budget proposal for the upcoming year on Thursday.

Whether it passes or not is immaterial, since Republicans in the General Assembly will not benefit either way.  I can only assume he thinks Republicans have no chance in the 2023 legislative elections anyway, so why not come out with what is basically a gesture that could only benefit him in the GOP presidential primaries?

I think it's more of a realization that they have no chance in the State Senate, so:

1. This is the last, best chance to make a deal with 1-2 moderate Dems while the chamber might only be 21D/19R.  It will probably be 24D/16R in the long run on this map. 

2. The districts in the lower house are small enough that there are primarily rural VRA seats and Hispanic opportunity seats in outer NOVA.  A pro-life turnout boost could flip a couple of these to make up for 1-2 near certain redistricting losses in a chamber that's currently 52R/48D.  R's could still reasonably hold the lower house, but they are narrowly disfavored in a traditional PVI sense. They need to pursue high variance strategies that could shake things up.

3. The PR benefit of showing that you don't have to "go full Northeast" to contest VA as a Republican sends a message to pro-life Biden district R's elsewhere. 

We have yet to see this "pro-life turnout boost" materialize, considering it's the pro-choice side that's energized now and even pro-life people are starting to get cold feet now that they see the consequence of making abortion illegal.

Republicans certainly are disfavored in retaining/gaining control of either chamber next year, and Youngkin's screwing over his own party in the state because he's using Virginia as a stepping stone, and that's become more and more obvious. This is not a pro-life state and there will be backlash next year and in 2024.

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Democrats 'abort' pro-life bills

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — In a series of key votes Thursday, Virginia Senate Democrats defeated several bills that would have restricted abortion access in the state, including a proposed 15-week ban with exceptions that was a priority for Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

They are the first decisive legislative votes in Virginia since the Supreme Court’s decision last year overturning Roe v. Wade. The votes mean that barring an extraordinary procedural move, such restrictions are unlikely to be enacted this year in Virginia, which currently has some of the South’s most permissive abortion laws.

[...]

Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert said earlier this year that given Virginia’s divided government, he didn’t expect major progress on abortion this year.

[...]

The committee also defeated a less restrictive measure from Republican Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, who is an OB-GYN. Her bill would have added new limits on third-trimester abortions, allowing them only in cases where the woman’s life is at risk.

It would have allowed abortions through the second trimester before viability, defined as either 24 weeks or 22 weeks, if three physicians agree.

[...]

The outcome was not surprising. Senate Democrats had promised since last year’s Roe decision to defeat any effort to curtail abortion access.

But the election of Democratic Sen. Aaron Rouse in a special election this month has given their caucus more breathing room. Rouse flipped a seat previously held by a Republican, adding one more vote to Democrats’ narrow control of the chamber.

One Democratic senator, Joe Morrissey, has previously indicated a willingness to support additional abortion restrictions, even through the use of an unusual floor procedure that before Rouse’s victory potentially could have allowed the Republican lieutenant governor to cast a tie-breaking vote.

in 2020, Democrats, at the time in full control of state government, expanded abortion access and eased certain clinic restrictions, pledging to make the state a “safe haven” in the South.

Elections matter.

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I didn't really pay much attention to these races other than the one in mine district (race baiter Louise Lucas defeated Senator Spruill whom I voted for, but I kinda expected that) and I'm disappointed at Petersen's loss but he's definitely the kind of Democrat who would/should fare well in a Trump district and I will miss his presence as an independent moderating voice in the caucus.

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really sad how 18-29 vote is so low. imagine if they voted at the percentage 55 and above does.

Voting OVER A MONTH out?

Only the sort of freaks who are like us would vote this early.

Virginia is just a state with quite a few such people.

News to me that early voting has already begun, and I *live* here.

I received my ballot last week and have yet to fill it out (kinda pointless because I don't live in a competitive area but I like democracy) but maybe some localities are handling this better.

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Seems like a fairly useless poll since there isn't a generic ballot, but unsurprisingly Dems are way more trusted on abortion (net +7) than Republicans (net -17)

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1712145457764315285

Speaking of, the stupid wing of the Virginia GOP decided to run on abortion anyway. I saw an ad this morning supporting Youngkin's 15-week abortion ban, saying it polls well, Democrats are the extreme ones on this issue, etc. But it's clear those polls don't mean very much for Republicans outside the Deep South and this issue is a landmine for Republicans in Virginia.

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https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1724202870851903653

No, this can’t be true! Young people have abandoned the Democratic Party because Genocide Joe supports Israel!

Uh, there are rallies going on. You know what that means, right? It's how Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders both became president. You can't ignore those big beautiful crowds.