Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Oryxslayer]

Isn't the whole premise here that Carter has no reason not to because he can run for reelection to his State House seat and run for Governor at the same time, so why not do both?

Obviously he's not gonna win the latter, but I was under the impression he's just going to file for both races simultaneously and that that's allowed.

Yeah, which is why I suspect this move is done because he wants a bigger megaphone, not because he actually thinks he can defeat TMac/JCF - that's just a huge bonus if it actually happens.

[Oryxslayer]

Tuesday was officially the last day the Rs could request a primary via the Dept of Elections.  Instead, they announced a convention May 8th at Liberty University.  Safe D

Conventions are more likely to pick bad candidates, but it's not a guarantee. The GOP last won statewide with a convention-selected slate, in 2009.

Also, having a convention instead of a primary means that Amanda Chase can't win with a plurality of the vote. It's a ranked choice, drive-through vote in the parking lot. People who choose to be delegates are crazier than primary voters, but primary voters are pretty crazy themselves, having nominated Corey Stewart and Donald Trump.

Correct me if I'm wrong but this definitely seems like a way to get more extreme conservative candidates, right? Just as a matter of practicality moderate NOVA Republicans will be less likely to drive all the way down to Lynchburg. The delegates will probably be mostly the more conservative Republicans from the Lynchburg area/southside just out of geographic practicality.

Yes, conventions tends to select more radical candidates than primaries simply because those radical views motive you to seek change within the party and go to said convention. See the meaningless results of recent Utah republican conventions and how they compare to the primary. However, conventions also tend to avoid selecting those with bad inter-party relations, even if it means they are connected to the radical base, because the delegates are all party insiders even if they are more radical. This is why Chase preferred a primary to a convention.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RalphNortham/status/1367490301657554945?s=20

Big slap in the face to Herring.

[Oryxslayer]

Virginia GOP agrees on how to select their nominees. There will be a 'remote convention' where voters cast RCV ballots at 37 spots across the state.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1386046200848297991?s=20

There was a firehouse GOP primary for HD-07 (mainly Pulaski county SW of Roanoke) today. The most extreme, at least when it comes to the appeals to authoritarian identity, candidate won. I note this cause the GOP's process for selecting their statewide candidates in two weeks time is effectively a giant firehouse primary, and Marie March is to some degree comparable to Chase. It gives us a tea leave on who actually will turn out for the GOP not-primary, and who they may prefer.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CarterElliottIV/status/1386763469387702274?s=20

GG TMac. Time to open a prediction: will TMac win every county and independent city in the primary or lose a handful?

[Oryxslayer]

has the VA GOP clown car primary happened yet?

It's a state convention, not a primary, and it's scheduled for May 8. 

https://twitter.com/jfradioshow/status/1387098598618406916?s=19

I wonder if this is true.

This reflects the fact that their 'convention' is more of a firehouse primary than a true convention, with multiple dropboxes across the state. Its far less that the several hundred thousand that can be expected for a primary, but still a healthy amount normal for something in between the two types of nomination processes. The big takeaway is that there probably will be more than enough turnout to override the say of various political insiders who are guaranteed to turnout, so the party isn't guaranteed to nominate their favorites.

Also the GOP decided to allow delegates with a legitimate exemption - e.g. Orthodox Jews - to cast their preferences on Friday ahead of the main event.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1389566217229320202?s=20

Youngkin campaign publishes a poll that reflects common sentiments across the state but is basically worthless. A poll of GOP primary voters =/= a poll of highly motivated convention delegates, and it didn't weight for the regional delegate calculation formula utilized to prevent over/underrepresentation in one part of the state or another.

AKA this was probably released to convince some delegates to respect public opinion and vote like trustees for GOP voters.

[Oryxslayer]

The fear among those with power was that if the GOP had a open primary, it would be a Chase triumph, and they wanted to have a closed insider convention so that the electable candidates could win. However, this firehouse primary that is the result of compromise between the two sides, appears to have been the worst of both worlds. Enough people signed up that the insiders are drowned out, and if the small-d democrats had their way and voters went to a primary, its likely Youngkin or Snyder would win. Having a insider convention where the most motivated and angry show up is a recipe for a Chase surprise - see the Utah conventions and their contradictory relationship with the Republican electorate.

[Oryxslayer]

The fear among those with power was that if the GOP had a open primary, it would be a Chase triumph, and they wanted to have a closed insider convention so that the electable candidates could win. However, this firehouse primary that is the result of compromise between the two sides, appears to have been the worst of both worlds. Enough people signed up that the insiders are drowned out, and if the small-d democrats had their way and voters went to a primary, its likely Youngkin or Snyder would win. Having a insider convention where the most motivated and angry show up is a recipe for a Chase surprise - see the Utah conventions and their contradictory relationship with the Republican electorate.

So Chase is likely favored in your view? If she gets the nod its very possible Democrats could get 60 or more seats in the House.

No, she's not favored, but not exactly disfavored - whereas she would at this point by a full election/insider convention. And yes, if she's the nominee then a Dem landslide becomes a possibility.

[Oryxslayer]

The fear among those with power was that if the GOP had a open primary, it would be a Chase triumph, and they wanted to have a closed insider convention so that the electable candidates could win. However, this firehouse primary that is the result of compromise between the two sides, appears to have been the worst of both worlds. Enough people signed up that the insiders are drowned out, and if the small-d democrats had their way and voters went to a primary, its likely Youngkin or Snyder would win. Having a insider convention where the most motivated and angry show up is a recipe for a Chase surprise - see the Utah conventions and their contradictory relationship with the Republican electorate.

So Chase is likely favored in your view? If she gets the nod its very possible Democrats could get 60 or more seats in the House.

No, she's not favored, but not exactly disfavored - whereas she would at this point by a full election/insider convention. And yes, if she's the nominee then a Dem landslide becomes a possibility.

Normal conventions in Virginia aren't for insiders, they're for whoever wants to sign up and show up. You don't get any savvy insiders, you get extremist idiots who drive to the convention site and think that EW Jackson is a viable candidate because he gave a good speech or something.

Your right to some extent, but there was a reason the people who didn't want Chase to win pushed for a convention. When selecting a statewide nominee, the VAGOP uses something like an electoral college to correct for turnout disparities natural at a single convention building. The radials who drive up are concentrated in a single geographic grouping and have their votes diluted, since they all came from the surrounding area or were bussed in from another part of the state for a perticular reason. The elected party members from across the state who would show up to the thing no matter where its held dominate the blocks with less delegates and have their votes magnified, giving them a greater say over the nominee.

Having multiple "convention" (firehouse primary) sites across the state, as is being done this weekend, offers more geographic area for motivated radicals and ensures every region has a healthy number of delegates, which is why Chase has an outside shot.

Now for any race without this system is exactly like you describe, I have not forgotten Good vs Riggleman.

[Oryxslayer]

PPP poll of 695 Republican primary voters. Two problems: this is not a primary, and its coming from PPP which doesn't exactly have experience polling GOP primarys. They are a dem outfit and have a reason to pump for Chase. But it show good turnout among the most motivated can easily make her the nominee.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1391013962129477634?s=20

The chase quip is certainly interesting. Voter motivation is also interesting.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/LawAmericanX/status/1391064169542307850?s=20

This is in NOVA.

Live GOP convention updates

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DanielBerti12/status/1391164856439611396?s=20

Prince William delegate turnout.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DanielBerti12/status/1391164856439611396?s=20

Prince William delegate turnout.

Does turnout in individual counties even matter?  I thought things are weighted in advance with jurisdictions that vote more Republican in past elections more weight.

Yes areas are weighted so turnout matters less. However a energized area likely has something motivating them to cast their votes. No idea how things relate in that regard though.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, here's some broader turnout trends. A baseline of 30k-ish may tilt things towards the most committed.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1391180213539774465?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/petesnyder/status/1391184019128205312?s=20

Snyder appears confident, which therefore begs the question about Chase's potential spoiler campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DelRichAnderson/status/1391420043611807750?s=20

Today is the AG count. The results will be a portent of the electorates composition.

[Oryxslayer]

Vpap is providing returns as the GOP provides them.  Have no idea what they mean though

Its the weighted votes per candidate, with voted weighted by geographic prominence and the total resident GOP. Formula for received support is (Number of Ballots Received/Total Ballots Cast) x Number of Assigned Delegate Votes. Miyares is the candidate that the GOP 'wants' to win if they want to seriously contest the office, so a close final ballot or a loss would be disadvantageous.

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1391504702806835200?s=20

This is a weighted vote map, so if someone drops from the process, say because they don't understand or like RCV and just put the first preference, the weighted vote total remains the same.

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1391452730468732936?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1391508208028725261?s=20

This very likely puts Smith ahead for Round 1, and probably means he will have the transfer advantage in NOVA. Big failure for the GOP if Smith wins, and a poor sign for other 'favorite' candidates.

[Oryxslayer]

First round weighted GOP convention votes totals:

Jason Miyares: 36.56%, 4,590 weighted votes

Chuck Smith: 34.45%, 4,325 weighted votes

Jack White: 14.98%, 1,881 weighted votes

Leslie Haley: 14.01%, 1,758 weighted votes

Haley did best in and around Chesterfield which she a supervisor of. Her weighted votes are the first to be reallocated.

[Oryxslayer]

This is going fast, because they just have to reallocate votes on a computer rather than count them. It remains close among raw Haley voters between smith and Miyares.

[Oryxslayer]

Also a reminder that Chuck Smith supports Amanda Chase's gubernatorial campaign, if one wishes to draw that conclusion from his strong and potentially successful challenge to Miyares.

[Oryxslayer]

White did very well in NOVA, and his voters would have needed to break with their neighbors preferences to keep Smith out of contention after final reallocation.