Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Gass3268]

Virginia voted 52D-47R for the House of Representatives in 2020, and that was frankly with a bunch of not-very-competent Republican candidates running (Bob Good, Nick Freitas) throughout the state. The state Democratic party has had a bunch of scandals over the past two years and Northam's approvals are weak; moreover, Youngkin will probably be able to outspend McAuliffe.

(Youngkin also fits the mold of the sort of Republican who wins or does well in gubernatorial elections in blue states -- big spender without much of a political record at all running at a Democrat highly affiliated with the state government -- but I don't know that that's actually necessary since VA is double-digits to the right of all of these places).

Anyway, I think D+5 -- which is treading water with 2020 -- would be a good outcome here for Democrats. I agree that McAuliffe is favored -- this is a Leans D state and Youngkin is unproven enough that you could see him crashing and burning -- but I'd put Youngkin's odds of winning at maybe 35-40%.

If Republicans are already on track for a 2010/2014 wave in 2022 by November, then Youngkin will need to win. The environment can change in a year -- in 2013, the reasons for the 2014 wave hadn't really congealed yet -- but Youngkin losing would mean the wave isn't there yet. A narrow loss for Youngkin would still mean they're on track to take the House/Senate, mind, they just wouldn't be doing it very impressively.

If Democrats are on track to hold the House, they should definitely improve off of D+5. Holding steady with Northam/Gillespie would be a very good sign. If McAuliffe wins by double-digits, like some have suggested, it would be a result characteristic of 2022 being a Democratic wave where they might hold the House. (But, again, a year is long enough for things to change).

Did you adjust for Morgan Griffith being unopposed in VA-09?

[Gass3268]

Lee Carter is losing his House primary too.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1402415661184425989?s=20

Turnout being down only around ~84K isn't as bad as some have talked about.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1402415661184425989?s=20

Turnout being down only around ~84K isn't as bad as some have talked about.

Looks like it is going to be close to 2017.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1402419431523946506?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1402428506345132036?s=20

[Gass3268]

T-Mac has jokes

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1438642408212910083?s=21

[Gass3268]

You would never know that a new poll just had McAuliffe up 3, 5, 7 yesterday with all of the new 'Dems in disarray in VA' articles popping up

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/28/white-house-mcauliffe-514455

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/25/politics/virginia-governor-race-analysis/index.html

After what happened in California, I'm of the opinion that these articles are a net positive to Democrats, especially in high media intake states like Virginia.

[Gass3268]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

who won the debate

IDK they both had stumbles-after stating he opposed COVID vaccine mandates, Youngkin was unable to respond coherently about how he would handle vaccines other than COVID that are already mandatory.  In response to a question about removing books from school libraries, McAuliffe said “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach.”  Those are the clips that either side is promoting.

This is the correct line to take.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1448446027657359365?s=20

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1448448953662545929?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/terrymcauliffe/status/1448499318676131842?s=21

[Gass3268]

Meanwhile, in things that matter far more to Virginia that Donald Trump:

The loudon story is getting worse, and there are rumblings NYT has an expose article in the works

https://mobile.twitter.com/guypbenson/status/1448760311750791169

If true, it's horrific and there needs to be consequences, but what does this have to do with Terry McAuliffe or Glenn Youngkin?

[Gass3268]

Poll after poll shows CRT is not popular.

Parents want their kids learning the 3 Rs and basic history

The unnecessary freakout over "CRT" is what leads to this:

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1449026017985761282?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ericuman/status/1452417630304935944?s=21

Will Youngkin disavow?

[Gass3268]

Turnout reports begin!

Almost 200 voters at Falls Church at 7am

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1455493940975706114

50% by 9am

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1455521603530461188?s=20

Liberal white areas don't seem to be a problem. Election will be won or lost on the % of electorate that is African American.

[Gass3268]

High election day turnout is bad for McAuliffe.

Not in Falls Church.

[Gass3268]

Why is anyone giving Ben Tribbett any credibility at all? He lost it all on Election Day in 2017. When he was saying things alluding to all signs pointing to Gillespie.

I remember he was like "After I stopped tweeting about turnout is when Northam did the best!" Right bro

[Gass3268]

THIS IS THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL UPDATE SO FAR:

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1455583436622770181

Fairfax is FINALLY picking up the pace.  Very good news.

Only 11 points behind 2017 with 6 hours still left to go.

[Gass3268]

Dave changed his opinion on Charlottesville.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455592521078300675?s=20

[Gass3268]

Mark Warner is feeling good. Take it for what its worth.

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1455597074054062081?s=20

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455598744032907271?s=20

Newport News turnout in 2017 was 40.5%.

[Gass3268]

Youth vote looking decent

https://twitter.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1455605541875638280?s=21

[Gass3268]

Things starting to look very positive for Youngkin:

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153

Yeah game over that R areas in a D state are at 89% of 2017 turnout when a few D areas have already surpassed 100% turnout...

He’s claiming it’s out of presidential turnout, not 2017, as in on track to exceed 2020 numbers. Doesn’t sound believable lol

oh good catch.  that would be high turnout.  can anyone confirm this? 

There is no way of knowing how good a precinct was for a given candidate in 2020 as Virginia did not allocate its pre-election day votes back to their precincts.

[Gass3268]

Never change, Atlas lol.

To sum up - is it fair to say there are positives so far for both sides regarding turnout and there are no meaningful takeaways so far?

This is correct.  Basically we will know almost nothing useful until actual results start coming in.

I disagree with this to a point. I think we can infer that neither side will lose tonight because their votes/areas didn't show up. Yet that's it. Differences in margin compared to 2020 and 2017 will decide the outcome.

[Gass3268]

Another good sign for African American turnout.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455617366843404289?s=20

[Gass3268]

We are almost ready for the afternoon freakout of turnout reports. It's about that time right?