CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JakeSternberger/status/1330282117876641796

You absolutely love to see it.

[Horus]

Andy Kim has a bright future. He's no moderate Dem either, very impressive win.

[Roll Roons]

Andy Kim has a bright future. He's no moderate Dem either, very impressive win.

I know I've mentioned this before, but it is very striking that he won by more than Gottheimer or Sherrill even though his district is Trumpier than NJ-05 or NJ-11. None of the Republican candidates in those districts were particularly strong, but it's not like Richter was markedly weaker than Pallotta or Becchi.

[2016]

Now CA-21 seems to be really done
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1330688805553115137
Valadao back up to over 1,7K Votes.

[Matty]

I am eager to see how California votes in a biden midterm. Will dems win back any of these seats they have lost so far this cycle?

[Roll Roons]

I am eager to see how California votes in a biden midterm. Will dems win back any of these seats they have lost so far this cycle?

I doubt they will in 2022, but they may in 2024.

[KaiserDave]

I am eager to see how California votes in a biden midterm. Will dems win back any of these seats they have lost so far this cycle?

I doubt they will in 2022, but they may in 2024.

They’ll win back some in 2022 because of redistricting 

[Tekken_Guy]

Andy Kim has a bright future. He's no moderate Dem either, very impressive win.

I know I've mentioned this before, but it is very striking that he won by more than Gottheimer or Sherrill even though his district is Trumpier than NJ-05 or NJ-11. None of the Republican candidates in those districts were particularly strong, but it's not like Richter was markedly weaker than Pallotta or Becchi.

Pallotta and Becchi were pretty generic Rs who lacked Richter's baggage.

[Roll Roons]

Andy Kim has a bright future. He's no moderate Dem either, very impressive win.

I know I've mentioned this before, but it is very striking that he won by more than Gottheimer or Sherrill even though his district is Trumpier than NJ-05 or NJ-11. None of the Republican candidates in those districts were particularly strong, but it's not like Richter was markedly weaker than Pallotta or Becchi.

Pallotta and Becchi were pretty generic Rs who lacked Richter's baggage.

What baggage did Richter have besides the fact that he ran a weak campaign?

[Tekken_Guy]

Andy Kim has a bright future. He's no moderate Dem either, very impressive win.

I know I've mentioned this before, but it is very striking that he won by more than Gottheimer or Sherrill even though his district is Trumpier than NJ-05 or NJ-11. None of the Republican candidates in those districts were particularly strong, but it's not like Richter was markedly weaker than Pallotta or Becchi.

Pallotta and Becchi were pretty generic Rs who lacked Richter's baggage.

What baggage did Richter have besides the fact that he ran a weak campaign?

He was a carpetbagger and he was heavily attacked on his family business.

[Pollster]

Andy Kim should move to PA-01.

[StateBoiler]

Amazing to me that pelosi isn’t going to step down as speaker

I don't like Pelosi, but there is no other Democrat in the House who has the political abilities which she has, while presently being able to command a majority of the Democratic caucus.

The Republicans had this same issue with Boehner/Ryan/McCarthy. It's less to deal with "political abilities" and more to deal with "being able to command a majority of the Democratic caucus". The post-Pelosi generation of congressional Democrats I don't know who is going to be able to meld them all together, which is exactly the problem Boehner and Ryan had. Pelosi's greatest ally is just the people that don't like her can't agree on a replacement.

In any case, I imagine that this is Pelosi's last term as Speaker (whether or not Democrats lose the majority in the midterms), and that she will retire from leadership-if not from the House entirely-in 2022.

6 years late if we're being pretty honest.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/711404?unlock=VVXHB670VQZFC100

National Journal put out their list of the biggest political "turkeys" of the year. They are:
1. Martha McSally, for being one of the few Republican Senate candidates to run behind Trump in a state that he only barely lost
2. Amy McGrift, for raising $88M and still losing to Cocaine Mitch by 20 points
3. Mike Bloomberg, for also proving that money can't always buy votes
4. David Richter in NJ-03, for not self-funding in a very expensive district and going on to lose by 8 points in a district that was pretty much tied at the presidential level
5. Progressive Democratic challengers (Kara Eastman in NE-02, Dana Balter in NY-24, Wendy Davis in TX-21, Mike Siegel in TX-10, and Candace Valenzuela in TX-24), all of whom lost and ran significantly behind Biden
6. GOP recruitment failures in districts that ended up being surprisingly close (CA-45, MI-11, IL-14. Even though it's not mentioned, NY-19 is arguably the most glaring example)
7. The whole polling industry for consistently overestimating Democrats at all levels

[lfromnj]

Valenzuela was still a better option than the other one who was a gaffe machine and she ran about the same behind Biden compared to other Texas Rs
Also was Wendy Davis even a progressive? I mean I expected her to go full progressive for a seat in 2022 but I don't liberal a progressive campaign from her this year.

[Xing]

Yeah, I don't get singling out progressives, when plenty of Democrats who wouldn't recognize as progressive also underperformed Biden by a lot. Some were even incumbents.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/711404?unlock=VVXHB670VQZFC100

National Journal put out their list of the biggest political "turkeys" of the year. They are:
1. Martha McSally, for being one of the few Republican Senate candidates to run behind Trump in a state that he only barely lost
2. Amy McGrift, for raising $88M and still losing to Cocaine Mitch by 20 points
3. Mike Bloomberg, for also proving that money can't always buy votes
4. David Richter in NJ-03, for not self-funding in a very expensive district and going on to lose by 8 points in a district that was pretty much tied at the presidential level
5. Progressive Democratic challengers (Kara Eastman in NE-02, Dana Balter in NY-24, Wendy Davis in TX-21, Mike Siegel in TX-10, and Candace Valenzuela in TX-24), all of whom lost and ran significantly behind Biden
6. GOP recruitment failures in districts that ended up being surprisingly close (CA-45, MI-11, IL-14. Even though it's not mentioned, NY-19 is arguably the most glaring example)
7. The whole polling industry for consistently overestimating Democrats at all levels

If I'm not mistaken, at least three of these candidates-Eastman, Balter, and Siegel-were retread candidates, having previously lost to Bacon, Katko, and McCaul in 2018. If true, it seems that all three are losing by larger margins this time than they did then. And Wendy Davis has now suffered two humiliating defeats. Her 7-pt. loss against Roy wasn't as devastating as the 21-pt. loss she had against Abbott in 2014, but that is still a decisive defeat. I'd imagine her political career might very well be over after this. Valenzuela, however, could try again in 2022-although Texas Republicans might try to shore up Van Duyne with redistricting.

[StateBoiler]

RRHElections did their version of the same article over the weekend. They also mentioned 2, 3, and 7, but their "Turkey of the Year" went to Cal Cunningham.

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/11/21/10th-annual-rrh-elections-turkey-of-the-year-awards/

[VAR]

^

The Dan Quayle Award for Gaffe of the Year goes to Christy Smith for reminding us that while being a military pilot may be impressive to some, it cannot match the true heroism that only comes from owning law books.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

^

The Dan Quayle Award for Gaffe of the Year goes to Christy Smith for reminding us that while being a military pilot may be impressive to some, it cannot match the true heroism that only comes from owning law books.

To my understanding, after she said that, we got an actual increase in fundraising even though we weren't doing any new events.

[VAR]

Carolyn Bourdeaux brags about being the only Democrat to flip a (competitive) GOP held seat.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1330888034439614465

[Roll Roons]

If I'm not mistaken, at least three of these candidates-Eastman, Balter, and Siegel-were retread candidates, having previously lost to Bacon, Katko, and McCaul in 2018. If true, it seems that all three are losing by larger margins this time than they did then.

Yep. Should also be noted that Eastman, Balter and Siegel all beat more moderate candidates in their primaries. Given how the results ended up going, I doubt any of the moderates would have won, but the races may have been closer.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1330921993747767297
Tillis got less votes than Paul Newby, the Republican candidate for NC Supreme Court Justice, but still won.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1330921993747767297

Huh. I guess Cunningham's sexting really did make the difference. Remind me why Schumer wanted him so badly?

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1330918488307851276
McSally did slightly better in suburban AZ-06 than in 2018.

Edit: Also, Kelly did 5 points better in AZ-02 than Sinema. Both Kelly and McSally live in AZ-02.

[Torie]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/711404?unlock=VVXHB670VQZFC100

National Journal put out their list of the biggest political "turkeys" of the year. They are:
1. Martha McSally, for being one of the few Republican Senate candidates to run behind Trump in a state that he only barely lost
2. Amy McGrift, for raising $88M and still losing to Cocaine Mitch by 20 points
3. Mike Bloomberg, for also proving that money can't always buy votes
4. David Richter in NJ-03, for not self-funding in a very expensive district and going on to lose by 8 points in a district that was pretty much tied at the presidential level
5. Progressive Democratic challengers (Kara Eastman in NE-02, Dana Balter in NY-24, Wendy Davis in TX-21, Mike Siegel in TX-10, and Candace Valenzuela in TX-24), all of whom lost and ran significantly behind Biden
6. GOP recruitment failures in districts that ended up being surprisingly close (CA-45, MI-11, IL-14. Even though it's not mentioned, NY-19 is arguably the most glaring example)
7. The whole polling industry for consistently overestimating Democrats at all levels

I don't get this Delgado could have been beaten shtick at all, but hey, what do I know.