CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Roll Roons]

Uhhh... is it possible that Democrats fail to flip any seats in Texas?

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At this rate, the NC seats could be the only Democrats flips tonight.

GA-07 is looking increasingly like a flip.

Just those three?

IL 13th is still out there as the college towns didn't come in yet, Garcia is also trailing which sounds bad California has a reverse counting bias rn.

No, the AP called it for Rodney. I think his lead is insurmountable.

What was the net gain in the end?

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https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1324085100729016322

Senator Fitz is inevitable! 

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Herrera Beutler (R) leads by double digits in WA-03 with 98% of the vote in.

Yeah, not sure why that one hasn't been called.

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CA-39 is R+.5 with 89% reporting and I have no idea how the CA late ballots tend to land. Will Cisneros send Young Kim back to school?

In normal years, late ballots in CA skew heavily D. But this year, they apparently might be more Republican, so it looks like Valadao, Garcia, Kim and Steel can all win.

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https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1324497362702671873

Funny to see the dynamic completely reversed this year.

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https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/van-drew-leads-kennedy-by-14670-votes-in-nj-2/

JVD's lead has expanded since election night. NJ's had a pretty big red shift so far. A lot of this is wishful thinking on my part, but maybe even Kean has a small chance...

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On that note,
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325242940000628738

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Young Kim gets her redemption!

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Young Kim gets her redemption!

 I would not be excited before you become Charlie Kirk 2.0

Hey, we will likely have at least one Korean-American Republican congresswoman next year:

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325244967632007169

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I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

Didn't they call NJ-7 back on Tuesday?

I believe so.  I forget to mention New York 3rd where Tom Suozzi is narrowly trailing, but there are thousands of votes outstanding and I believe they're the mail-in votes.

It's really hard to believe Malinowski won so easily. I always felt his fate would be tied to Rouda's.

A lot of the vote is still out and much more favorable for Kean. Malinowski might still win, but it will be extremely close.

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I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

Didn't they call NJ-7 back on Tuesday?

I believe so.  I forget to mention New York 3rd where Tom Suozzi is narrowly trailing, but there are thousands of votes outstanding and I believe they're the mail-in votes.

It's really hard to believe Malinowski won so easily. I always felt his fate would be tied to Rouda's.

A lot of the vote is still out and much more favorable for Kean. Malinowski might still win, but it will be extremely close.

How much does it need to break for him to win?

Tbh, I'm not 100% sure. But it's not an easy victory by any means. At the very least, it will be much closer than the 2018 race, and it's clear that Malinowski is running far behind Biden.

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325889625441923077

No mention of NJ-07.

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https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/margin-in-nj-7-down-to-14405-votes/

Per NJ Globe, Malinowski is up 14K in NJ-07, with 70K uncounted (presumably including provisionals, which are expected to be heavily R). For comparison, he was up by 28K on election night. A lot of the uncounted ballots are from Morris, where Kean has been gaining with each ballot drop. This one isn't over.

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https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/margin-in-nj-7-down-to-14405-votes/

Per NJ Globe, Malinowski is up 14K in NJ-07, with 70K uncounted (presumably including provisionals, which are expected to be heavily R). For comparison, he was up by 28K on election night. A lot of the uncounted ballots are from Morris, where Kean has been gaining with each ballot drop. This one isn't over.

Provisionals have varied by state, but not sure where the CW that they are heavily R comes from, as in places like PA, they've been about an even split, even plurality wise benefitting Ds.

I guess NJ is counting in order though? Is that why these late ballots have trended R?

Yeah, they're counting in order received. Biden's statewide lead has also dropped from 24% on Election Night to 17% now.

NJ implemented a system that was pretty much entirely VBM, so if someone wanted to vote in person, it was provisional. Given the known partisan divide between mail and in-person, provisionals will be probably be strongly R. This is really giving me Valadao-Cox 2018 vibes.

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So is this an accurate summary of all the flips/uncertain races?

Confirmed D to R flips:
FL-26
FL-27
IA-01
MN-07
NM-02
OK-05
SC-01

Confirmed R to D flips:
GA-07
NC-02
NC-06

Uncalled but likely staying R:
AK-AL
CA-08
NY-01
NY-02
NY-24
TX-24 (Called by DDHQ but not AP/NYT)

Uncalled but likely flipping from D to R:
CA-39
CA-48
NY-11
NY-22

Unclear:
CA-21
CA-25
IA-02
NJ-07 (AP call was likely premature)
UT-04

Uncalled but likely staying D:
AZ-01
IL-14
NY-03
NY-18
NY-19
WA-08

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https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1326223203216236544?s=19

Wow. Has Steel declared victory?

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https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-vs-kean-wont-be-settled-today-and-maybe-not-until-the-weekend/

Looks like NJ-07 will take some time. God f**king dammit, how are they so bad at this?

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AP called House Control for Democrats! They have at least 218 Seats now!

What was seat 218 for them?

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Results from the Texas seats that were targeted by the DCCC:
TX-02: R+14
TX-03: R+12
TX-06: R+9
TX-10: R+7
TX-21: R+7
TX-22: R+7
TX-23: R+3
TX-24: R+1
TX-25: R+14
TX-31: R+9

Apart from maybe SirWoodbury, I don't think a single person on here saw this coming.

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NJ-07
Malinowski (D, inc.) 193,138 (51.66%)
Kean Jr. (R) 180,713 (48.34%)

Getting closer and closer. Today alone, Kean has shrunk the margin by about 2000 votes. Don't want to jinx it, but he can pull it out.

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When can we expect the first absentee dumps from NY?

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Are there a lot of absentees left in Iowa? NYT says only 89% is reporting in IA-02.

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326369139452239872

Revenge. Served. Cold. They don't call it the place where good Republicans go to die for nothing.

Also, has anyone else noticed that Mike Levin is up by less than 7 in CA-49? That seat was thought to be gone forever.

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AP calls AK-AL for Don Young (R).

Democrats can try all they want, but Don Young will leave Congress in a body bag.