CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[KaiserDave]

Spanberger declares victory.

YEEES! She's one of the best!

However, she's probably not hanging on in a 2022 Biden midterm, even if the president isn't that unpopular.

She probably might not even hang on in a(slim chance) Trump midterm depending on how redistricting goes.

Wouldn't Democrats give her a more favorable district or at least not a tougher one? Virginia has a Democratic trifecta.

Yeah they could easily make her seat safe.

[KaiserDave]

Republican victory declarations mean nothing, but Meeks is favored. When all is said and done I expect the Republicans to net around 10 seats.

[KaiserDave]

Republican victory declarations mean nothing, but Meeks is favored. When all is said and done I expect the Republicans to net around 10 seats.

So, that’s -3 seats as a baseline (NC-02, NC-06, GA-07)

-3. MN-07
-2. OK-05
-1. SC-01
1. NY-11
2. NY-22
3. IA-01
4. FL-26
5. FL-27
6. CA-39
7. CA-48
8. NM-02
9. MI-03
10. IA-02
11 (10 w/o CA-25): CA-21
12 (11 w/o CA-25): UT-04
13 (12 w/o CA-25): NJ-07

Malinowski is going to win

I expect Smith to win, and probably a surprise perhaps from NY or one of the other races.

[KaiserDave]

Republican victory declarations mean nothing, but Meeks is favored. When all is said and done I expect the Republicans to net around 10 seats.

So, that’s -3 seats as a baseline (NC-02, NC-06, GA-07)

-3. MN-07
-2. OK-05
-1. SC-01
1. NY-11
2. NY-22
3. IA-01
4. FL-26
5. FL-27
6. CA-39
7. CA-48
8. NM-02
9. MI-03
10. IA-02
11 (10 w/o CA-25): CA-21
12 (11 w/o CA-25): UT-04
13 (12 w/o CA-25): NJ-07

Malinowski is going to win

I expect Smith to win, and probably a surprise perhaps from NY or one of the other races.

I can give you NJ-7 (Malinowski) and CA-25 (Smith). The others so called surprised in NY: Forget about it. Not going to happen!

ok sure

[KaiserDave]

Regarding Collins, everyone remember that without Savage that margin would have been significantly tighter. Still, yeah, what an embarrassment.

Payback for Manchin conning WV hicks in 2018

It's funny, because Gideon/DSCC made a lot of the same mistakes as Morrisey/NRSC, and Collins pulled a lot of the same tricks as Manchin.

What mistakes?

Perhaps running too much on the attack, and not defining your own candidate as anything beyond Generic D/R.

[KaiserDave]

Kean now needs to win the remaining vote by 17.3% assuming there are 49,753 ballots left, could be more as 49,753 is a lower end estimate.

It appears that 50k is a *higher end* estimate:

"But the number could also experience a sudden drop, if a significant number of vote-by-mail voters who tracked their own ballots online also voted provisionally after being unable to verify that election officials had received their ballots.”

We also don't know the composite of what is left. We could still have more GOP-heavy batches left, or this could be a CO situation where we get thru the GOP-heavy batches to then have 50/50 or Dem-leaning batches.

Also, how many left are provisionals?  I really doubt the provisionals will be particularly Republican heavy.

Yep, it seems NJ is as bad as PA is with how many are left outstanding.

Also, given that NJ is already past 4 million votes statewide, I doubt there are 50K left in just this district. That would mean there is hundreds of thousands outstanding statewide, which seems... unlikely

I'm getting worried about New York State! How many Congressional Seats will Democrats STEAL there?

shuttttt upppppppp pleeeasseee

[KaiserDave]

So many new faces

So many new people for me to despise

[KaiserDave]

If Brindisi wins (as I very well think he may), given the other results, all the Atlas #Analysis of the year is exposed as very, very stupid.

[KaiserDave]

Imagine the Atlas reaction if Smith loses and Brindisi wins.

I mean I obviously want them both to win but I prefer Brindisi winning as an FU to trends.

[KaiserDave]

It would be kind of hilarious to see Brindisi win while Shalala lost.

And amazing

[KaiserDave]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

I think Tenney is still favored to win here. The Syracuse Article from yesterday stated that Brindisi would need to win 80 % of the remaining Absentees to win and I don't think he'll do that!

Except he is?

From the Article:

Brindisi still has a difficult path to victory. He would have to win almost 80% of the more than 52,000 absentee ballots sent in by voters in the eight-county district.

Enough said!

What have they broken so far? I would expect in NY of all places that 80% for the mail ballots could be attainable?

Disagreeing with you! That might be the case in New York City but not in Upstate NY!

You're objectively incorrect

[KaiserDave]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

I think Tenney is still favored to win here. The Syracuse Article from yesterday stated that Brindisi would need to win 80 % of the remaining Absentees to win and I don't think he'll do that!

Except he is?

From the Article:

Brindisi still has a difficult path to victory. He would have to win almost 80% of the more than 52,000 absentee ballots sent in by voters in the eight-county district.

Enough said!

What have they broken so far? I would expect in NY of all places that 80% for the mail ballots could be attainable?

Disagreeing with you! That might be the case in New York City but not in Upstate NY!

You're objectively incorrect

Could I ask why? Is it just not such a dem focused mail in there?

I'm unsure what you're asking. I was merely making the point that Brindisi is doing exactly what he needs with mail ins. Dominating with ~80%.

[KaiserDave]

Brindisi is going to win. INCREDIBLY BASED.

[KaiserDave]

This is the biggest middle finger to trends and #analysis of all time. Amazing.

[KaiserDave]

Brindisi is going to win. INCREDIBLY BASED.

Lone survivor.

LOL, he hasn't won yet!

Tell me how Tenney wins with 25k left out and an 8k vote difference.

Don’t jinx it

Stares awkwardly

[KaiserDave]

Wasserman thinks Brindisi may actually be slightly favored:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1327645312236871682

My joy is immeasurable and my day is made

[KaiserDave]

Globalism strikes back!

[KaiserDave]

These mere mortals declared me finished, but they know not the power of overseas New Jersey residents

Custom image, wikimedia commons image modified

[KaiserDave]

Provisionals will decide NJ-07. And for the record, KaiserDave, Kean's father was basically the 80s equivalent of our man Phil.

I'll do my research on Kean Sr. and Jr., but I'd probably still back Malinowski. I don't know Kean Jr.'s record well, and Malinowski seems well enough.

[KaiserDave]

That's beautiful

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/alexanderbolton/status/1328837080676438027
L M A O

Poor guy, leave him be, bloody hell.

he deserves that and worse

[KaiserDave]

NY-22 is pretty clearly going to a recount and succeeding legal battle. This won't be over for weeks. But I'm feeling the Brindisimentum.

[KaiserDave]

Would be nice if all counties publicly updated their totals as they count instead of seemingly giving different information to various media sources in NY.

Also Re: Wasserman tweets - pretty sure his provisional count is incorrect, it basically assumes there are virtually no provisionals in Oneida which would be contradictory to what is being observed in other counties in the district. Also some challenged ballots (maybe 500 or so in Broome and Oneida) that would heavily break towards Brindisi once they're inevitably counted.

Yeah, this will take a while

[KaiserDave]

The more Seats Republicans get the tougher it gets for Pelosi to enact any meaningful Legislation like for example repealing the Tax Cuts which would be disastrous for the Economy.

Come again? Deficit spending during times of prosperity is what's disastrous for the economy.

Don't try and debate the hacks Blairite, you know how it will go

[KaiserDave]

The challenged ballots will bring this to an end. Absolutely glorious.

Ahahahahahh! Take that trends and #analysis!