CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Tekken_Guy]

At this rate, the NC seats could be the only Democrats flips tonight.

[Tekken_Guy]

At this rate, the NC seats could be the only Democrats flips tonight.

GA-07 is looking increasingly like a flip.

Just those three?

[Tekken_Guy]

At this rate, the NC seats could be the only Democrats flips tonight.

GA-07 is looking increasingly like a flip.

Just those three?

IL 13th is still out there as the college towns didn't come in yet, Garcia is also trailing which sounds bad California has a reverse counting bias rn.

Technically CA-25 is just flipping back to where it should be.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1323883793665720322?s=19

This was really surprising to me. I thought Joe had it wrapped up. The entire margin for the Republicans was much stronger than I ever imagined.

Trump and Graham must have easily won here, right?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1324085100729016322

Senator Fitz is inevitable! 

What about Senator Guy?

[Tekken_Guy]

They should honestly call both WA-03 and WA-08. WA-03 isn't even going to be lose, and while WA-08 could end up narrowly within 5%, Jensen isn't making up the gap.

As for the discussion of the Squad/centrist/M4A, I'll repeat my talking point: Messaging, messaging, messaging is everything.

Any idea why dems are so bad at messaging?

A few reasons.

1. Frustration: A lot of Democrats who are understandably fed up and tired at a lack of meaningful change on a number of issues want to make over-the-top slogans to try and draw attention to an issue. I think people who disagree should understand that this is a big part of where these overly simplistic proclamations come from, even if it's not a politically good strategy.

2. Lack of contact with those who aren't like-minded: It's not universally true that liberals live in a bubble, but many do, and simply don't understand how their messaging could be interpreted in a different way. Too many also push away those who criticize their messaging, even if they agree with the underlying goal.

3. Complicated ideas, simple slogans: Some ideas on the left are quite complex, and it's hard to find an accurate, succinct way of expressing those ideas. It's also hard to avoid using words that have a negative connotation in politics.

There are probably more, including the messengers themselves, but these are some big ones.

Well that's something certainly, I never understood their problems. Do you think that Bernie/Squad hurt a lot?

They haven't been the best messengers, that's for sure (especially Omar and Tlaib.) I think that, at the very least, they do pick up on a lot of the frustration part I talked about, but Democrats and progressives need to find a better way to communicate this. We hear all the time about how people in rural areas are struggling, and while it's true that some Democratic candidates don't pay enough attention to it, plenty of people in cities are struggling. The "ivory tower" image people like to bring up only describes a small number of people in urban areas. For many people, their problems are very real, and just moving somewhere less expensive is nowhere near as easy as it sounds.

The whole structure of our system amplifies folks who take issue with politics not revolving around their problems. I understand that a lot of people everywhere have their own sets of challenges, but there also needs to be a point where we say things like 250,000 dead people and kids in cages are too much.

I think with COVID the GOP seemed successful at getting the blame off Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gotta say I am pleasently surprised of some of our GOP House Candidates doing well.

GOP Establishment though should be ashamed of themselves by not standing with President Trump at least until he is officially defeated.

The only two people who are standing with him are FL Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Lindsey Graham.

That’s a bad thing?

[Tekken_Guy]

UT-04
Owens (R) 48.0%
McAdams (D) 47.2%

Given what happened with Dems across the country in swing seats, I'm pleasantly surprised McAdams may actually hang on

Owens is a QAnon nut. Against anyone else, he would have lost. And we would have known it by now.

[Tekken_Guy]

They should honestly call both WA-03 and WA-08. WA-03 isn't even going to be lose, and while WA-08 could end up narrowly within 5%, Jensen isn't making up the gap.

As for the discussion of the Squad/centrist/M4A, I'll repeat my talking point: Messaging, messaging, messaging is everything.

Any idea why dems are so bad at messaging?

A few reasons.

1. Frustration: A lot of Democrats who are understandably fed up and tired at a lack of meaningful change on a number of issues want to make over-the-top slogans to try and draw attention to an issue. I think people who disagree should understand that this is a big part of where these overly simplistic proclamations come from, even if it's not a politically good strategy.

2. Lack of contact with those who aren't like-minded: It's not universally true that liberals live in a bubble, but many do, and simply don't understand how their messaging could be interpreted in a different way. Too many also push away those who criticize their messaging, even if they agree with the underlying goal.

3. Complicated ideas, simple slogans: Some ideas on the left are quite complex, and it's hard to find an accurate, succinct way of expressing those ideas. It's also hard to avoid using words that have a negative connotation in politics.

There are probably more, including the messengers themselves, but these are some big ones.

Well that's something certainly, I never understood their problems. Do you think that Bernie/Squad hurt a lot?

This is a good run down, particularly number 2. Many squad-types work under the "people will like and vote for us once they hear our message" assumption and make no effort to understand their own lack of appeal where it persists, and why their message is not considered a positive one by many voters (even left-leaning ones). Katie Porter seems to have gotten a very strong handle on it.

Katie Porter does a very good job connecting with voters personally, far better than Mike does, who does it well. Idk if anything should be brought from Katie's win.

This seems like a massive self-contradiction.

I also don't know who/what you're referring to with regards to Mike.

Mike Garcia perhaps?

Nevertheless, I'm not sure about this idea. Everyone thought the same thing about Joe Cunningham and Max Rose. I thought Rose was going to cruise to re-election at the beginning of the year.

[Tekken_Guy]

UT-04
Owens (R) 47.6%
McAdams (D, inc.) 47.4%

Is this going to hold, or will McAdams return to the lead?

[Tekken_Guy]

Only real question marks now are Cox, Garcia, and McAdams, plus the IA seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Meanwhile the AP has projected that fmr. Congressman Darrell Issa will be returning back to Congress this time representing the 50th Congressional District in CA...Pelosis & Bidens worst nightmare.

It really isn’t. They get to avoid obvious grifter Ammar Campa-Najjar and get another walking opportunity to portray GOP Representatives as corrupt elites. This is one of the least bad losses for House Democrats, along with Shalala’s seat.

Also, Issa won't be a chairman this Congress, so he will not wield as much power as he did in the Obama years.

Assuming Tenney and Valadao win, will this be the House with the most amount of non-consecutive termers?

That will bring it up to 15, the other 13 are Issa, Sessions, Kirkpatrick, Horsford, Case, Schneider, Titus, Foster, Chabot, Walberg, Mfume, Cooper, and Price.

[Tekken_Guy]

Meanwhile the AP has projected that fmr. Congressman Darrell Issa will be returning back to Congress this time representing the 50th Congressional District in CA...Pelosis & Bidens worst nightmare.

It really isn’t. They get to avoid obvious grifter Ammar Campa-Najjar and get another walking opportunity to portray GOP Representatives as corrupt elites. This is one of the least bad losses for House Democrats, along with Shalala’s seat.

This is such an hilariously bad argument from you. Pelosi is the one who is corrupt. Running as Speaker again, probably for the last time because in 2022 we will retire her once and for all. Her stubborness not wanting to make a Deal with the Administration when it comes to COVID-19 Relief Bill did cost her a lot of House Seats.

Yeah what Pelosi did with the COVID relief bill should be enough to get her booted from her speakership.  She should have passed what Mnuchin offered her (1.8 trillion).

That move might have won Biden the election though.

She should have thought about her caucus and House races as well as the welfare of the country before the Presidential election.  Now there might not even be a relief bill and Democrats lost a bunch of seats.

If Trump won, there wouldn't be a relief bill.

[Tekken_Guy]

Republicans honestly kind of blew it too. They lowballed their expectations and failed to invest in easily winnable targets. They could have taken the house back if they were more bold.

[Tekken_Guy]

I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

Didn't they call NJ-7 back on Tuesday?

[Tekken_Guy]

I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

Didn't they call NJ-7 back on Tuesday?

I believe so.  I forget to mention New York 3rd where Tom Suozzi is narrowly trailing, but there are thousands of votes outstanding and I believe they're the mail-in votes.

It's really hard to believe Malinowski won so easily. I always felt his fate would be tied to Rouda's.

[Tekken_Guy]

I believe the only House races that shouldn't be called at this time are Iowa 2nd, New Jersey 7th and Utah 4th.

Young Kim should be referred to as Congresswoman-elect.

Rather annoying that Jeff Van Drew got reelected, but at the end of the day, he's nothing more than an insignificant 1/435 member of the House.

Didn't they call NJ-7 back on Tuesday?

I believe so.  I forget to mention New York 3rd where Tom Suozzi is narrowly trailing, but there are thousands of votes outstanding and I believe they're the mail-in votes.

It's really hard to believe Malinowski won so easily. I always felt his fate would be tied to Rouda's.

A lot of the vote is still out and much more favorable for Kean. Malinowski might still win, but it will be extremely close.

How much does it need to break for him to win?

[Tekken_Guy]

SLCo just dumped 17k ballots and it only decreased Owens lead by 60 votes

That is an awful sign for mcadams

If that’s the case, Jared Golden is the only super-vulnerable freshmen to survive.

Why are these ballots so favorable for Owens?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/margin-in-nj-7-down-to-14405-votes/

Per NJ Globe, Malinowski is up 14K in NJ-07, with 70K uncounted (presumably including provisionals, which are expected to be heavily R). For comparison, he was up by 28K on election night. A lot of the uncounted ballots are from Morris, where Kean has been gaining with each ballot drop. This one isn't over.

Provisionals have varied by state, but not sure where the CW that they are heavily R comes from, as in places like PA, they've been about an even split, even plurality wise benefitting Ds.

I guess NJ is counting in order though? Is that why these late ballots have trended R?

NJ has transitioned to near-full VBM so anyone who actually shows up on election day to vote (with exception of voters with disabilities) are given a provisional ballot, so therefore these ballots will be significantly Republican.

The problem for Kean is he is underperforming Trump 2016 by quite a bit in Hunterdon County. He needs to make up a lot of ground to win.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/margin-in-nj-7-down-to-14405-votes/

Per NJ Globe, Malinowski is up 14K in NJ-07, with 70K uncounted (presumably including provisionals, which are expected to be heavily R). For comparison, he was up by 28K on election night. A lot of the uncounted ballots are from Morris, where Kean has been gaining with each ballot drop. This one isn't over.

Kean will win, probably with a 5K margin or more.

Kim looks golden in CA-39, Steele has won in CA-48 and Valadao will probably win in CA-21. I think Garcia is favored in CA-25 as well. If Owens holds on in Utah and Marianette Miller-Meeks somehow takes the lead in the recount Rs will net 12 seats for a 220-214 Democratic majority. Republicans would then have been like 20,000 votes (IA-03, IL-14, TX-15) from a House majority.

Holy sh**t.

Republicans must be kicking themselves for triaging ME-2 so quickly and not even bothering on NY-19.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

Except if he loses, it will be by a very narrow margin. And 2022 is certainly going to be a very Republican-friendly year. And this seems to be the kind of district that will start to vote downballot like the 21st. I'll be surprised if he doesn't come back for a rematch.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

Except if he loses, it will be by a very narrow margin. And 2022 is certainly going to be a very Republican-friendly year. And this seems to be the kind of district that will start to vote downballot like the 21st. I'll be surprised if he doesn't come back for a rematch.

District will be different after redistricting. There's no Republican areas surrounding it and CA is losing a seat.

And yet it's likely to be very R-friendly downballot. Lots of Latinos there who Dems have become weak with.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

Except if he loses, it will be by a very narrow margin. And 2022 is certainly going to be a very Republican-friendly year. And this seems to be the kind of district that will start to vote downballot like the 21st. I'll be surprised if he doesn't come back for a rematch.

District will be different after redistricting. There's no Republican areas surrounding it and CA is losing a seat.

And yet it's likely to be very R-friendly downballot. Lots of Latinos there who Dems have become weak with.

??

There's not many Latinos there. Only 33%, with maybe only 20% being CVAP and then not turning out regularly. White suburbanites+AAs moving to Antelope Valley.

Honestly depends on how Biden did in the district. Then we can see if it's friendly enough for Garcia to win it back.

[Tekken_Guy]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

Would be funny if this turns into another NH-1 where Garcia and Smith just keep switching every two years.

I don't know. Garcia could become another Valadao.