CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[2016]

Generally Speaking, this was a very bad Night for Congressional Democrats. There was talk about a 15 Seats Net Gain in the House and a Senate Takeover. Both won't be happening.

And when all the dust settles Republicans may actually have gained Seats in the House and are within striking Distance of a House Takeover in 2022.

[2016]

Gotta say I am pleasently surprised of some of our GOP House Candidates doing well.

GOP Establishment though should be ashamed of themselves by not standing with President Trump at least until he is officially defeated.

The only two people who are standing with him are FL Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Lindsey Graham.

[2016]

Surprised they haven't called Lamb yet. All the votes out will only likely increase his lead.

Lamb will win. The Races in California though are getting precarious for the Democrats. 2020 could be 2018 in reverse in CA. All the late Ballots in 2018 went for the D's. In 2020 because of the Pandemic the late Ballots will mostly breaking Republican. Going to be interesting how much early VBM and how much is late VBM + ED is left in CA.

[2016]

House Projections as of Saturday November 7th

CNN: 211-197 [27 Uncalled; 1 will go to Runoff (LA-5)]
Wonder why they are so slow. Incredible bad Media Bias from them.

NBC NEWS: 225-210 +/- 7

ABC: 217-203 [15 Races Uncalled; 1 will go to Runoff [LA-5)]

CBS: 216-204 [15 Races Uncalled; 1 will go to Runoff [LA-5)]

FOX: 214-195

NY Times: 215-195 with 25 Uncalled

[2016]

CNN finally projects Senator Susan Collins the Winner in the Maine Senate Race. What the hell took them this long? Their calls and wait really have become questionable over the years!

[2016]

DEM Pick Ups: GA-7, NC-2, NC-6

GOP Pick Ups: FL-26, FL-27; IA-1, MI-3 (formerly held by Independent Justin Amash), MN-7, NM-2,
OK-5, SC-1,

Net GAIN: 5

I though think Steel is going to win, also in New York Tenney and Malliotakis are on track to win. Going to be interesting if Young Kim and Mike Garcia can hang onto it.

[2016]

Meanwhile the AP has projected that fmr. Congressman Darrell Issa will be returning back to Congress this time representing the 50th Congressional District in CA...Pelosis & Bidens worst nightmare.

[2016]

Meanwhile the AP has projected that fmr. Congressman Darrell Issa will be returning back to Congress this time representing the 50th Congressional District in CA...Pelosis & Bidens worst nightmare.

It really isn’t. They get to avoid obvious grifter Ammar Campa-Najjar and get another walking opportunity to portray GOP Representatives as corrupt elites. This is one of the least bad losses for House Democrats, along with Shalala’s seat.

This is such an hilariously bad argument from you. Pelosi is the one who is corrupt. Running as Speaker again, probably for the last time because in 2022 we will retire her once and for all. Her stubborness not wanting to make a Deal with the Administration when it comes to COVID-19 Relief Bill did cost her a lot of House Seats.

[2016]

I'm honestly kind of glad Campa-Najjar lost. He's been a real PITA this cycle, and now hopefully a better candidate can run and win later on.

Is the issue with late counting of CA ballots that they're not going to skew Dem at all, or that they're not going to skew Dem as much as they did in 2018? I'm still a bit unclear, and it affects my perception of the uncalled races. Also, are late ballots in Iowa and Texas going to skew Dem?

Because of the Pandemic Democrats voted earlier in a lot of States especially in CA. CA had Record Early Vote/Absentee Turnout.

[2016]

McAdams looks done in UT-04, latest SLC votes are going for Owens.

NJ-07 will be super close, have to see how the election day provisionals shake out though I bet Kean wins in the end (AP blown call).

Republicans will win CA-48, CA-39, CA-21 and hold CA-25.

AZ-01 will be super close but O'Halleran should hold on if the number of votes outstanding is correct.

Brindisi actually has a non-negligible chance in NY-22 with the mail-ins uncounted but Tenney is still the heavy favorite.

Malliotakis has won NY-11 even if the AP hasn't called it.

Suozzi, Delgado, and Patrick-Maloney will be fine once the mail-ins are counted.

IA-02 is a tossup, just have to wait for the recount.

In the end, Republicans will probably pickup FL-26, FL-27, MN-07, NM-02, SC-01, NY-11, NY-22, IA-01, UT-04, OK-05, NJ-07, CA-21, CA-39, and CA-48. Democrats will gain NC-02, NC-06, and GA-07.

That's a Republican net gain of 11. Most unsure about NY-22, AZ-01, IA-02, NJ-07, and UT-04.

House looks to be 221-214.

If this happens it would be the smallest House Majority for either Party since 2000 when Republicans owned a 221-212 over Democrats with two Independents (Bernie Sanders & Virgil Goode)

[2016]

Regarding Collins, everyone remember that without Savage that margin would have been significantly tighter. Still, yeah, what an embarrassment.

Payback for Manchin conning WV hicks in 2018

It's funny, because Gideon/DSCC made a lot of the same mistakes as Morrisey/NRSC, and Collins pulled a lot of the same tricks as Manchin.

I'm pretty certain that if the NRSC in 2018 had put in WV the ressources that democrats have poured in ME Manchin would have lost by a not that tight margin.

Manchin voted for Kavanaugh so I think you're wrong here.

Collins and Manchin played their States pretty well. Manchin knew if he had voted against Brett M. Kavanaugh he would have lost. Same with Collins this year. Had she voted to confirm ACB she would have been a GONER.

I don't think though Manchin will survive 2024.

[2016]

It’s whether you allow them to dodge it or not that makes all the difference (which Daines didn’t do).

Can you talk more about how Daines handled this race? I didn't work on it or follow it as closely as I originally wanted to, and I'm curious as to how he produced that final margin.

The Montana Senate Race was more about Steve Bullock then it was about Steve Daines IMO.
Bullock was open to "Court Packing". That hurt him!

[2016]

Quick Update on the Malliotakis vs Rose Race in New York's 11th Congressional Race

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1325614214552104960

If those Figures are correct there is no way Max Rose can win this!

Calling it now: Congresswoman-elect Nicolle Malliotakis!

[2016]

CA still has a ton of votes out and we have no idea what's remaining. Who knows how those races will turn out.

Democrats voted more early than usual in CA this year so my gut feel is that the remaining Votes especially in the Kim vs Cisneros and Steel vs Rouda Races scew Republican.

Garcia vs Smith remains a total coin flip.

[2016]

SLCo just dumped 17k ballots and it only decreased Owens lead by 60 votes

That is an awful sign for mcadams

NYT has McAdams up by 1600, where are you getting your numbers?

NYT is outdated. The new Numbers are from the Utah Lt. Governors Office!

[2016]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1325952297839390720?s=19

Excellent drop for Kim..

Still incredibly nervous! Hopefully Kim can hang on here!

Cisneros now needs giant favorable Vote dump from LA County to have a chance. 4,000 Votes is a lot!

[2016]

Didn't actually realize this but Utah County is nearly done with UT-04 (they seemed to prioritize counting UT-04 ballots). Not seeing evidence that SLC is prioritizing these ballots and them seem to have a considerable chunk left, and considering the geographical bias of batches I think McAdams is still favored as is (his best cities like Millcreek and Murray are lagging behind on counted votes while Herriman and Bluffdale seem overrepresented, which are strong for Owens).

You applying Apples and Oranges here. Because of the Pandemic most of the Democratic-favorable Ballots are in pretty much in every single Congressional Race safe for New York State. Democrats voted early and those Ballots are counted first in most of the States. The later the Voters drop their Ballots the more favorable they become for Republican Congressional Candidates. SLC I guarantee you that has mostly late Ballots left.

[2016]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

One-term rental it is. Garcia will win it back in 2022.

No, he probably won't, if we're not winning it this time, I don't see him running again.

Well, the Smith vs Garcia was the toughest for us to get! I'm happy if we get Michelle Park Steel, Young Kim and David Valadao back + Nicolle Malliotakis & Claudia Tenney in New York!

[2016]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1325984732690133000?s=19

Thank You TEXAS

Democrats targetted 10 GOP House Seats! They didn't win a single one of them!

[2016]

The NYT now has Miller-Meeks (R) up by 36 votes in IA-2

YEEEEEEESSSSS,
Almost certainly going to be a Districtwide Recount tho so I don't count my chickens just yet

[2016]

So is this pretty much all the flips/uncertain races?

Confirmed D to R flips:
FL-26
FL-27
IA-01
MN-07
NM-02
OK-05
SC-01

Confirmed R to D flips:
GA-07
NC-02
NC-06

Uncalled but likely staying R:
AK-AL
CA-08
NY-01
NY-02
NY-24
TX-24 (Called by DDHQ but not AP/NYT)

Uncalled but likely flipping from D to R:
CA-39
CA-48
NY-11
NY-22

Unclear:
CA-21
CA-25
IA-02
NJ-07 (AP call was likely premature)
UT-04

Uncalled but likely staying D:
AZ-01
IL-14
NY-03
NY-18
NY-19
WA-08

We have 8 confirmed Flips! You forgot MI-3 (Justin Amash's District). Amash caucused more with Dems than with GOP since he switched to Independent.

[2016]

Miller Meeks lead now 22 votes. Johnson county showed up with a 14 vote margin from somewhere. The other change was a Pub precinct was missed.

https://twitter.com/LauraRBelin/status/1326041766173302789

Miller-Meeks lead is now confirmed by the Iowa Secretary of State's Office
https://electionresults.iowa.gov/IA/106279/web.264614/#/summary
They have it at 34 Votes.

[2016]

Finally today we're counting Votes in Alaska again. I wonder how long it's gonna take declaring Trump & Sullivan the Winners there?

[2016]

ABC NEWS has the new House Breakdown now at:

222 Democrats
206 Republicans
7 Races yet to be called

https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-house-election-results-live-map

[2016]

We could know by TONIGHT 10-11pm ET if Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan will head back to Washington.

The Alaska Divisions of Elections will start counting Absentee Ballots starting at 9am Alaska Time

https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2020/11/10/alaska-absentee-ballot-count-begins-tuesday/

Democratic fringe Candidate Al Gross needs between 60-66 % of the outstanding Ballots to unseat Sullivan

https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2020/11/10/alaska-races-could-shift-as-absentee-ballots-start-being-counted-tuesday/