CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[GALeftist]

If this holds, is there any doubt that Syracuse is going into NY-22 in 2 years? Makes a lot of sense to give Brindisi and Katko safer districts with NY's gerrymander.

It was my understanding that the optimal gerrymander, assuming that two seats are lost, is to try and consolidate Katko and Brindisi into one district Brindisi would win, snipe Malliotakis with some uberprogressive Brooklyn hipsters, and cut a Long Island Republican, while making all the other existing incumbents basically safe. I could be wrong, though.

[Matty]

If dems take both Iowa 2 and ny22, then I would think you can safely say dems “won” the house elections

[JMT]

Another source confirms the 13 vote margin in NY-22:

https://twitter.com/jrosenblatttv/status/1331702968517873670?s=21

[Matty]

Pelosi now has a good cushion to pass progressive legislation

[GALeftist]

These races are unbelievably tight, good lord. CA-25, IA-02, NY-22, so many where just a few more votes could have made a huge difference.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This article gives a really good summary of where things stand in IA-02:

https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1331626212976959488?s=21

The state of Iowa is set to certify statewide results on Monday at 3:00 pm. I imagine IA-02 will be a legal battle for awhile even after Monday, though?

they literally look like the same person lol

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

As far as i can tell, batsh*t crazy Kathy Barnette in PA-04 has not conceded yet to Madeleine Dean. She lost by nearly 20%.

She hasn't tweeted since 11/11, and before that it was... insane

https://twitter.com/Kathy4Truth

I don't want to sound offensive but I seem to notice that black republicans tend to be more nutjoby/crazy than other republicans. Anyone else notice that?

They are a form of minstrelry

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331690151349784580

God Damn it

you already got a win in ca 25, go home and be happy with mexico mike

[Xing]

Not sure if this was already posted, but John James finally conceded.

[Matty]

So much for the hot takes that pelosi “lost” this election cycle

[Pericles]

Did NY-22 have a much reduced Trump margin this year, or is it like the 16 point margin he won it by last time?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Honestly the house was probably going to flip regardless. Just hope Perdue and Loeffler lose so we can get redistricting reform

[Bootes Void]

Pelosi now has a good cushion to pass progressive legislation

Only for the Senate to then reject it lol

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I just noticed that madeleine dean got basically the same margin out of her district this year as hillary did in 2016. that's a really sh!tty performance. she actually did 0.3% worse

[Roll Roons]

Did NY-22 have a much reduced Trump margin this year, or is it like the 16 point margin he won it by last time?

Based on whatever we've seen so far from upstate New York, I would think it swung at least a few points towards Biden.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Mr. Brindisi, how did you survive?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331690151349784580

God Damn it

you already got a win in ca 25, go home and be happy with mexico mike

I can still want other seats, you can be happy with the presidency alone using that logic. And what?

[Xing]

Mr. Brindisi, how did you survive?

[WD]

Mr. Brindisi, how did you survive?

[Devils30]

If this holds, is there any doubt that Syracuse is going into NY-22 in 2 years? Makes a lot of sense to give Brindisi and Katko safer districts with NY's gerrymander.

It was my understanding that the optimal gerrymander, assuming that two seats are lost, is to try and consolidate Katko and Brindisi into one district Brindisi would win, snipe Malliotakis with some uberprogressive Brooklyn hipsters, and cut a Long Island Republican, while making all the other existing incumbents basically safe. I could be wrong, though.

I think Katko is much harder to beat than others, like Brindisi he is a big overperformer relative to PVI. Makes sense to put Ithaca and Syracuse in the 22nd and maybe force Reed and Katko into one very red seat.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So much for the hot takes that pelosi “lost” this election cycle

I mean, she did. Democrats should have gained ~10 seats. Losing any is definitely an underperformance.

[SenatorCouzens]

Honestly the house was probably going to flip regardless. Just hope Perdue and Loeffler lose so we can get redistricting reform

The Senate would have to first abolish the filibuster and then pass your legislation on the narrowest of margins in both the Senate and House.

And the Supreme Court could very easily deem the legislation unconstitutional.

[Calthrina950]

This article gives a really good summary of where things stand in IA-02:

https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1331626212976959488?s=21

The state of Iowa is set to certify statewide results on Monday at 3:00 pm. I imagine IA-02 will be a legal battle for awhile even after Monday, though?

they literally look like the same person lol

Not quite, but there is a resemblance in that both are blondes, both are middle aged, and both wear glasses. And they say that all blacks look alike! Well, speaking as a black person, I've seen many whites who look alike as well-particularly at my job.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If this holds, is there any doubt that Syracuse is going into NY-22 in 2 years? Makes a lot of sense to give Brindisi and Katko safer districts with NY's gerrymander.

It was my understanding that the optimal gerrymander, assuming that two seats are lost, is to try and consolidate Katko and Brindisi into one district Brindisi would win, snipe Malliotakis with some uberprogressive Brooklyn hipsters, and cut a Long Island Republican, while making all the other existing incumbents basically safe. I could be wrong, though.

I think Katko is much harder to beat than others, like Brindisi he is a big overperformer relative to PVI. Makes sense to put Ithaca and Syracuse in the 22nd and maybe force Reed and Katko into one very red seat.

oh you can easily draw a seat where Brindisi would knock the living sh!t out of katko. take the super blue part of onondaga that not even katko wins, add it to tompkins and broome and cortland, and string it to utica to pick up brindisi

[Devils30]

The Dems who held on generally had a better background, more compelling biography. In Cali look who lost, yes Rouda was okay but Cox had tax liens and Cisernos was a lotto winner, not exactly the best look. There's a reason Spanberger, Slotkin survived in harder districts than the Cali Dems.

Shalala was also an awful candidate who was a poor fit for a Hispanic majority district. The others that Dems lost such as NY-11, OK-5, SC-1 were all surprises in 2018 anyway.