CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

And we've spent the last 2/4 years hearing about how incumbency advantage, ticket-splitting, and candidate quality no longer matter.

Biden outperformed every single House Democrat on this list, including incumbents Fletcher and Allred. Ticket-splitting, such as it was this year, benefited downballot Republicans, not Democrats, in the vast majority of cases.

I'm aware. I don't believe I ever implied otherwise?

[Calthrina950]

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

And we've spent the last 2/4 years hearing about how incumbency advantage, ticket-splitting, and candidate quality no longer matter.

Biden outperformed every single House Democrat on this list, including incumbents Fletcher and Allred. Ticket-splitting, such as it was this year, benefited downballot Republicans, not Democrats, in the vast majority of cases.

I'm aware. I don't believe I ever implied otherwise?

I wasn't questioning you; I was pointing out a fact.

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

And we've spent the last 2/4 years hearing about how incumbency advantage, ticket-splitting, and candidate quality no longer matter.

Biden outperformed every single House Democrat on this list, including incumbents Fletcher and Allred. Ticket-splitting, such as it was this year, benefited downballot Republicans, not Democrats, in the vast majority of cases.

This is what happens when Democrats make it all about Trump, and act as though he's an anomaly.

That much is true. But as I've said before, many voters aren't comfortable with all of the Democratic Party's policies, and have voted accordingly.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

And we've spent the last 2/4 years hearing about how incumbency advantage, ticket-splitting, and candidate quality no longer matter.

Biden outperformed every single House Democrat on this list, including incumbents Fletcher and Allred. Ticket-splitting, such as it was this year, benefited downballot Republicans, not Democrats, in the vast majority of cases.

I'm aware. I don't believe I ever implied otherwise?

I wasn't questioning you; I was pointing out a fact.

Oh, I misunderstood then.

[Xing]

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

And we've spent the last 2/4 years hearing about how incumbency advantage, ticket-splitting, and candidate quality no longer matter.

Biden outperformed every single House Democrat on this list, including incumbents Fletcher and Allred. Ticket-splitting, such as it was this year, benefited downballot Republicans, not Democrats, in the vast majority of cases.

This is what happens when Democrats make it all about Trump, and act as though he's an anomaly.

That much is true. But as I've said before, many voters aren't comfortable with all of the Democratic Party's policies, and have voted accordingly.
[/quote]

More their messaging than their policies, I'd say.

[VAR]

I think Joe Biden's nice moderate ff image encouraged the Karens to vote for nice moderate ffs downballot as well.

[Gracile]

While there was still a degree of ticket-splitting this year (which largely benefited downballot Republicans), it is far, far less than in previous presidential years. Even just four years ago you had incumbents in swingy districts who outperformed their party's nominee by absurd margins (like 10%+/20%+ divergences). There are definitely politicians with specific brands and who represent idiosyncratic communities who performed better, but for the most part House results I've seen from competitive districts aren't that far off from the presidential topline.

[VAR]

Susan Collins didn't need urban/suburban Maine to eke out a victory, but she did very well there as well.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1329918896175013888

[n1240]

NY-22 might just depend on court ruling for Oneida? As in whether or not a considerable amount of the Oneida provisional ballots are ruled countable, since I'm still pretty sure they rejected all or nearly all of their provisional ballots, which is an extreme oddity within the district and maybe even the state.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1329937798237802498?s=19

Not nearly enough for Smith..

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1329938463257370624

[Roll Roons]

Garcia looks clearly favored now.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1329939376583761920?s=19

Cox is done.

[2016]

Garcia looks clearly favored now.

Smith needs a MIRACLE now! I do not think she can make this up!

[VAR]

I guess we're sweeping the CA seats after all?

[Skill and Chance]

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

I guess trends are less real downballot. Would be very curious about the numbers in NJ.

Eh, just wait for the 2026 or 2030 midterm with a Republican president.  And it will be very hard to gerrymander all that to Trump 2020 numbers.  They could be counting on ticket splitting almost as much as the WV Dems by that point. 

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I guess we're sweeping the CA seats?

I seem to remember a post about a week ago declaring that Steel, Kim, Valadao and Garcia would all lose.

 

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1329940382008819715

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329939042079739904

[Tekken_Guy]

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

I guess trends are less real downballot. Would be very curious about the numbers in NJ.

For NJ, Trump definitely won 4 and probably won 2, 3 could have gone either way, and Biden wins the reset.

[Frenchrepublican]

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

I guess trends are less real downballot. Would be very curious about the numbers in NJ.

Eh, just wait for the 2026 or 2030 midterm with a Republican president.  And it will be very hard to gerrymander all that to Trump 2020 numbers.  They could be counting on ticket splitting almost as much as the WV Dems by that point. 

LOL. Because TX will be a D+40 state, sure Jan.

[VAR]

I wonder if Valadao is going to vote with Rs 100% of the time again.

[Roll Roons]

TX CDs presidential/congressional results:

TX-02: Trump (R) +1, Crenshaw (R) +13
TX-03: Trump (R) +1, Taylor (R) +12
TX-06: Trump (R) +3, Wright (R) +9
TX-07: Biden (D) +9, Fletcher (D) +3
TX-10: Trump (R) +2, McCaul (R) +7
TX-21: Trump (R) +3, Roy (R) +7
TX-22: Trump (R) +1, Nehls (R) +7
TX-23: Trump (R) +2, Gonzales (R) +4
TX-24: Biden (D) +5, Van Duyne (R) +1
TX-25: Trump (R) +10, Williams (R) +14
TX-31: Trump (R) +3, Carter (R) +9
TX-32: Biden (D) +10, Allred (D) +6

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868

I guess trends are less real downballot. Would be very curious about the numbers in NJ.

For NJ, Trump definitely won 4 and probably won 2, 3 could have gone either way, and Biden wins the reset.

I figured that. I'm more interested in the margins and the difference between the congressional and presidential vote in each district (but especially NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11).

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1329941044247416833

[Roll Roons]

The magic words:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329944113312133120

Pretty amazing that we flipped four California seats this year.

[2016]

Both California Districts looking pretty good now. Smith would need 58 % of the remaining LA County Vote to draw even and in CA-21 Cox would need over 70 % of the remaining Vote in all 4 Counties to overtake Valadao!