CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[KaiserDave]

Disaster for dems in CA

Yeah


The silver lining for them however is that the unfair maps will wipe out these guys

No, they are fair maps, CA has a commission, it may just have a slight Democratic tilt and may create maps slightly favorable to Democrats, but Republican maps won out on the commissions in WA and NJ last time, so it's not exactly unfair, both sides try to game the commissions, for instance, Democrats successfully gamed the AZ Commission last time and then Republicans gamed it this time. But I highly doubt the maps that some people are suggesting where say Long Beach gets paired with Newport Beach and/or Huntington Beach become reality.

The Commission is D biased. I only meant unfair to say Democrats would have an edge.

[Calthrina950]

More their messaging than their policies, I'd say.

Messaging is a problem, that's true. But I'm skeptical that voters are in complete agreement with the Democratic Party's policies, as they are.

[lfromnj]

Disaster for dems in CA

Yeah


The silver lining for them however is that the unfair maps will wipe out these guys

No, they are fair maps, CA has a commission, it may just have a slight Democratic tilt and may create maps slightly favorable to Democrats, but Republican maps won out on the commissions in WA and NJ last time, so it's not exactly unfair, both sides try to game the commissions, for instance, Democrats successfully gamed the AZ Commission last time and then Republicans gamed it this time. But I highly doubt the maps that some people are suggesting where say Long Beach gets paired with Newport Beach and/or Huntington Beach become reality.

Why wouldn't Huntington and Long beach be shoved together with a D commision?

Those 2 cities almost border each other lol

[S019]

Disaster for dems in CA

Yeah


The silver lining for them however is that the unfair maps will wipe out these guys

No, they are fair maps, CA has a commission, it may just have a slight Democratic tilt and may create maps slightly favorable to Democrats, but Republican maps won out on the commissions in WA and NJ last time, so it's not exactly unfair, both sides try to game the commissions, for instance, Democrats successfully gamed the AZ Commission last time and then Republicans gamed it this time. But I highly doubt the maps that some people are suggesting where say Long Beach gets paired with Newport Beach and/or Huntington Beach become reality.

Why wouldn't Huntington and Long beach be shoved together with a D commision?

Those 2 cities almost border each other lol

Because it's a clear gerrymander, from a COI perspective, Huntington fits far better with the rest of the OC Shore cities and not with Long Beach. It has a D slant, but it is not going to draw illogical pairings for the purpose of helping Democrats, that's the difference between a gerrymander and a commission map.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Because it's a clear gerrymander, from a COI perspective, Huntington fits far better with the rest of the OC Shore cities and not with Long Beach.

I would actually disagree on that. The Santa Ana River really divides OC into two strong COIs, and Huntington really has nothing in common with Newport/Laguna/Irvine. Huntington+Long Beach isn't particularly clean, but neither is Huntington+Newport. A truly fair map is probably Huntington+Fountain Valley+Westminster+Garden Grove.

[VAR]

What exactly is so bad about Christy Smith? Seems like a boring Generic D to me.

[Frenchrepublican]

Disaster for dems in CA

Yeah


The silver lining for them however is that the unfair maps will wipe out these guys

No, they are fair maps, CA has a commission, it may just have a slight Democratic tilt and may create maps slightly favorable to Democrats, but Republican maps won out on the commissions in WA and NJ last time, so it's not exactly unfair, both sides try to game the commissions, for instance, Democrats successfully gamed the AZ Commission last time and then Republicans gamed it this time. But I highly doubt the maps that some people are suggesting where say Long Beach gets paired with Newport Beach and/or Huntington Beach become reality.

Why wouldn't Huntington and Long beach be shoved together with a D commision?

Those 2 cities almost border each other lol

Because it's a clear gerrymander, from a COI perspective, Huntington fits far better with the rest of the OC Shore cities and not with Long Beach. It has a D slant, but it is not going to draw illogical pairings for the purpose of helping Democrats, that's the difference between a gerrymander and a commission map.

Also nuking, like some democrats are dreaming of, every R held seats in South California (save maybe for the 50th) would likely result in a big dummymander during a Biden midterm.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Disaster for dems in CA

Yeah


The silver lining for them however is that the unfair maps will wipe out these guys

No, they are fair maps, CA has a commission, it may just have a slight Democratic tilt and may create maps slightly favorable to Democrats, but Republican maps won out on the commissions in WA and NJ last time, so it's not exactly unfair, both sides try to game the commissions, for instance, Democrats successfully gamed the AZ Commission last time and then Republicans gamed it this time. But I highly doubt the maps that some people are suggesting where say Long Beach gets paired with Newport Beach and/or Huntington Beach become reality.

Why wouldn't Huntington and Long beach be shoved together with a D commision?

Those 2 cities almost border each other lol

Because it's a clear gerrymander, from a COI perspective, Huntington fits far better with the rest of the OC Shore cities and not with Long Beach. It has a D slant, but it is not going to draw illogical pairings for the purpose of helping Democrats, that's the difference between a gerrymander and a commission map.

Also nuking, like some democrats are dreaming of, every R held seats in South California (save maybe for the 50th) would likely result in a big dummymander during a Biden midterm.

Unlikely, but it’s worth the (low) risk

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What exactly is so bad about Christy Smith? Seems like a boring Generic D to me.

Cringeworthy Twitter warrior and apparently a poor campaigner to boot.

[Left Wing]

What exactly is so bad about Christy Smith? Seems like a boring Generic D to me.

Her making fun of Mike Garcia’s military service might have tipped the election.

[Roll Roons]

What exactly is so bad about Christy Smith? Seems like a boring Generic D to me.

Her making fun of Mike Garcia’s military service might have tipped the election.

That may well have been equivalent of Martha Coakley's Fenway Park comment. Especially in a district with a large military/veteran presence.

[Xing]

More their messaging than their policies, I'd say.

Messaging is a problem, that's true. But I'm skeptical that voters are in complete agreement with the Democratic Party's policies, as they are.

Not complete agreement, but I would say they’re definitely more in line with the Democratic platform than the Republican platform, the results of many initiatives and proposals back that up. The reason why Republicans win, despite often holding views that are extremely unpopular among Americans, is messaging.

[Frenchrepublican]

More their messaging than their policies, I'd say.

Messaging is a problem, that's true. But I'm skeptical that voters are in complete agreement with the Democratic Party's policies, as they are.

Not complete agreement, but I would say they’re definitely more in line with the Democratic platform than the Republican platform, the results of many initiatives and proposals back that up. The reason why Republicans win, despite often holding views that are extremely unpopular among Americans, is messaging.

You should not overread these results, yeah a majority of FL voters backed a minimum wage hike but a majority of IL voters rejected a progressive income tax.

Does that mean that the median voter in FL is to the left of the median voter in FL ? Obviously no

The US electorate is roughly 35% left wing ; 30% right wing and then you have around 35% of the voters who have a mix of liberal and conservative opinions.

[jimrtex]

I find it very very hard to believe that there are no ballots left in this district.

Yes, but they likely won't show up until a recount is needed. You always hold some in reserve.

Blablabla democracy bad blablabla I don’t understand vote counting blablabla
We get it

Remember the bag of ballots in the Gregoire-Rossi contest?

In a real democracy ballots would be cast in person with voters showing an ID, and counted in the precinct after the polls closed.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329836584095653893

He misspelled "$$$$$$$"

[jimrtex]

Because it's a clear gerrymander, from a COI perspective, Huntington fits far better with the rest of the OC Shore cities and not with Long Beach.

I would actually disagree on that. The Santa Ana River really divides OC into two strong COIs, and Huntington really has nothing in common with Newport/Laguna/Irvine. Huntington+Long Beach isn't particularly clean, but neither is Huntington+Newport. A truly fair map is probably Huntington+Fountain Valley+Westminster+Garden Grove.

It may come down to what population is needed. The commission may want to avoid splitting cities, and prefer grouping adjacent cities to get population equality, especially now that exact population equality is not needed.

San Diego has kept up with the growth to keep its districts, so they will just shuffle a bit to maintain population equality, keeping the cross-Pendelton district.

Orange County is short, so the districts have to grow north, because they can go west, and crossing the mountains is quite unlikely particularly if you are only grabbing a 100,000 voters or two.

Long Beach and Garden Grove are in one of the two LA-Orange districts, so I can see Garden Grove moved into an Orange district (which avoids putting Huntington Beach with Long Beach). If you need population balance you play around with the smaller cities northward.

Fun Fact: In the 2018 gubernatorial election, were the most Orange County votes cast in Anaheim, Santa Ana, Irvine, or some other city?

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1330257497907752961

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

IA03 and NJ03 voting Trump really surprise me.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1330257497907752961

Wow, Golden and Kim really blew Biden out of the water in their districts in that case. Well done.

[lfromnj]

IA03 and NJ03 voting Trump really surprise me.

Burlington is basically the bellwether county right now for NJ and Ocean is blood red.

[VAR]

lmao

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1330263171429511174

[Calthrina950]

lmao

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1330263171429511174

Florida and Texas truly have put California and New York to shame. It's embarrassing how incompetent and how slow the electoral systems in the latter two states are.

[KaiserDave]

Wow. Andy Kim. Woweee.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/JakeSternberger/status/1330282117876641796

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/JakeSternberger/status/1330282117876641796

The most meme part is that its the only district that wasn't really gerrymandered either lol.