2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324407942192472064
Oof, this hurts

"I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose would win many many new voters, OK?“

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Any idea on where joes national popular vote margin will end up (in points)

Probably something like 52-47.

Yikes polling ....

Safe to say if it was +10 like polling showed he would’ve carried Texas, FLA & NC

Should have trusted RV numbers, they (and Ipsos) have Biden +5 or so.

The likely voter screens were helping Dems for the first time I can remember and didn’t know how to process that. Lesson relearned.

[emailking]

So it appears Trump beat the polls because he was able to turn out more white, non-college voters. Do we think this is sustainable and will these voters turn out for a Senate run off on Jan 5th?

Who knows but I doubt it. Trump stoked crazy turnout on both sides. But Dems will be less energized to turnout as well.

[Thunder98]

So once again WI has voted to the right of MI and likely PA once all the votes have been counted.

[Silent Hunter]

Any idea on where joes national popular vote margin will end up (in points)

Probably something like 52-47.

Yikes polling ....

Safe to say if it was +10 like polling showed he would’ve carried Texas, FLA & NC

Should have trusted RV numbers, they (and Ipsos) have Biden +5 or so.

The likely voter screens were helping Dems for the first time I can remember and didn’t know how to process that. Lesson relearned.

Yes, that makes a lot of sense. The turnout modelling was wrong.

[wbrocks67]

Any idea on where joes national popular vote margin will end up (in points)

Probably something like 52-47.

Yikes polling ....

Safe to say if it was +10 like polling showed he would’ve carried Texas, FLA & NC

Should have trusted RV numbers, they (and Ipsos) have Biden +5 or so.

The likely voter screens were helping Dems for the first time I can remember and didn’t know how to process that. Lesson relearned.

It's funny too bc the PA polling was way lower than MI/WI, but it's quite possible the +4.8 or average or whatever won't be incredibly off from the final total in PA.

[OBD]

Wait, did that 12k from Fulton ever get counted???

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324407942192472064
Oof, this hurts

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324408845624631297?s=20

I think this explains allot of the polling error, Biden did do overwhelmingly better than Clinton, but it was cut down by masses of infrequent voters showing up for Trump.

[Skill and Chance]

Any idea on where joes national popular vote margin will end up (in points)

Probably something like 52-47.

Yikes polling ....

Safe to say if it was +10 like polling showed he would’ve carried Texas, FLA & NC

Should have trusted RV numbers, they (and Ipsos) have Biden +5 or so.

The likely voter screens were helping Dems for the first time I can remember and didn’t know how to process that. Lesson relearned.

It's funny too bc the PA polling was way lower than MI/WI, but it's quite possible the +4.8 or average or whatever won't be incredibly off from the final total in PA.

If PA ends up in line with the PV this time, Clinton really was a bad candidate.

[Tender Branson]

Kind of feels like Biden is the clear favorite in Georgia now but the final margin will be tiny (a couple thousand).

What are the chances that the overseas military ballots turn the small margin around again, so that Trump wins it ?

[Non Swing Voter]

Any idea on where joes national popular vote margin will end up (in points)

Probably something like 52-47.

Yikes polling ....

Safe to say if it was +10 like polling showed he would’ve carried Texas, FLA & NC

Should have trusted RV numbers, they (and Ipsos) have Biden +5 or so.

The likely voter screens were helping Dems for the first time I can remember and didn’t know how to process that. Lesson relearned.

It's funny too bc the PA polling was way lower than MI/WI, but it's quite possible the +4.8 or average or whatever won't be incredibly off from the final total in PA.

I think Biden will win quite comfortably but probably by a little over 1% not 5.  Maybe if you count the late arriving ballots that are in dispute it will get closer though.

[GAKas]

I'm not predicting whether Ossoff will/will not win the runoff, but I do like the story arc that would be complete if he wins a runoff after the initial election ended with the winner just barely under 50%. Exact opposite of his race in in 2017 lol

[ajc0918]

Trump's lead in GA down to 11k.

Where do you see this?

[Non Swing Voter]

Kind of feels like Biden is the clear favorite in Georgia now but the final margin will be tiny (a couple thousand).

What are the chances that the overseas military ballots turn the small margin around again, so that Trump wins it ?

Good point.  Not sure how many there would be though.  And there's evidence that Trump is underperforming with military voters compared to most Republicans.  

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Any idea on where joes national popular vote margin will end up (in points)

Probably something like 52-47.

Yikes polling ....

Safe to say if it was +10 like polling showed he would’ve carried Texas, FLA & NC

Should have trusted RV numbers, they (and Ipsos) have Biden +5 or so.

The likely voter screens were helping Dems for the first time I can remember and didn’t know how to process that. Lesson relearned.

Likely voter screens probably benefited Dems because people who voted early (disproportionately Dems) were automatically put in them.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324425447548047361?s=20

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324407942192472064

Oof, this hurts

It doesn't actually seem like Texas appreciably trended blue this year.  He lost the state by 6 but  it appears he won the national PV by 4-5, so still 10-11 points right of the nation.

[Holmes]

Kind of feels like Biden is the clear favorite in Georgia now but the final margin will be tiny (a couple thousand).

What are the chances that the overseas military ballots turn the small margin around again, so that Trump wins it ?

Just accept that you lost your bet.

[BlueSwan]

While I do want Biden to win the popular vote with as big as margin as possible, it is very discouraging going forward if he actually ends up winning the NPV by 5 points in SUCH a tight election where numerous states are super close. The NPV-EC discrepancy is getting unsustainably large. Are we really at a point where democrats have to get 5%-points more votes than republicans to win elections?

[Bootes Void]

Kind of feels like Biden is the clear favorite in Georgia now but the final margin will be tiny (a couple thousand).

What are the chances that the overseas military ballots turn the small margin around again, so that Trump wins it ?

Why are you insistent on Trump winning?

Btw Military ballots will hardly save save anyone down couple of thousands of votes

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324425447548047361?s=20

Good to know! Thanks!!!

[Alben Barkley]

So once again WI has voted to the right of MI and likely PA once all the votes have been counted.

I guess the conventional wisdom about that was right all along.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324425447548047361?s=20

"please have all facts and evidence"

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324425447548047361?s=20

"please have all facts and evidence"

Who needs facts when your last name is Trump?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So once again WI has voted to the right of MI and likely PA once all the votes have been counted.

I guess the conventional wisdom about that was right all along.

People seem to forget all the times conventional wisdom is right, remember the times it's wrong, and extrapolate that to mean "conventional wisdom is often wrong" - which is a bad statement to make if you are talking in terms of probabilities.