2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 599283 times)
Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« on: November 02, 2020, 09:41:58 PM »

Prediction: this thread probably hits 300 pages and the site will crash multiple times.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2020, 09:03:16 AM »

Not Atlas freaking out over the first hour of ED voting....
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 09:35:50 AM »

Love to extrapolate results based on the first two hours of voting just like I love to extrapolate how a state will vote based on the first three precincts that report their numbers.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 09:50:26 AM »

Not Republicans thinking Amish people will save them.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 10:40:42 AM »



Not Dems closing the gap by 4K in about an hour with a full day still to go and some VBMs still incoming today.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2020, 12:05:59 PM »

Uh oh, apparently Gillespie has caught up to Northam and the race is really close!
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2020, 12:27:13 PM »

Per CNN, southeastern PA is looking really bad for Trump while the southwest is on par with 2016.

Well I’m sure Alleghany is looking like a disaster for Trump.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2020, 12:41:22 PM »




Teaaaa
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2020, 12:45:09 PM »


This doesn't seem good does it ?

Who knows? Just gotta wait until the votes are counted. If Maricopa Republicans vote like Orange County, CA Republicans, it should be fine.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2020, 01:53:23 PM »

I just think the biggest question mark in Florida is Miami-Dade. If Dems are performing well there in the ED vote, I would say Biden is favored. It’s very annoying that they don’t report turnout like most other counties.

Another big question mark is will Dems improve their turnout as the day goes by and voters become less old and more young and voters leave work to go to the polls?
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2020, 01:56:02 PM »

Another thing I’m thinking, not that it makes a difference in the end, but Republican voters for Biden have probably mostly all voted early or VBM already. I expect most of these Republicans voting now on ED are solid Trump voters.
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Holmes
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*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2020, 01:57:46 PM »



Shouldn’t have waited to GOTV on Election Day during a global pandemic.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2020, 02:06:27 PM »



That would be very good for Biden.

I agree. If Dems are winning the ED vote in Miami-Dade now and if voters do indeed get more Democratic as the day progresses, that’s great for Biden.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2020, 02:18:28 PM »

Miami Dade results coming in



Nice, love to see it.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2020, 02:40:28 PM »

Another big question mark in Florida now is the crossover votes. It’s being hyped up that Biden is getting a nice amount of crossover votes from senior Republican voters so we’ll have to wait and see on that. I also personally believe there will be less Democratic crossover votes for Trump this year because a lot of Dixiecrats have changed their registrations to Republican since 2016.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2020, 02:45:02 PM »

Another big question mark in Florida now is the crossover votes. It’s being hyped up that Biden is getting a nice amount of crossover votes from senior Republican voters so we’ll have to wait and see on that. I also personally believe there will be less Democratic crossover votes for Trump this year because a lot of Dixiecrats have changed their registrations to Republican since 2016.

I read somewhere, but I'm not sure of the validity. That 16% in Sumter county Republicans voted for Biden compared to 10% Dems for Trump.

I think those numbers were actually from St. Pete’s Pinellas poll they just released and tbh, 10% and 16% both seem a little high.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2020, 02:56:53 PM »

Tick tock. Not much time left for Trump to get to 400,000.

Or even 300k.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2020, 03:07:23 PM »

Tick tock. Not much time left for Trump to get to 400,000.

Or even 300k.

To clarify, Trump doesn't necessarily need +300k or +400k to win FL; he could win it with fewer. Failing to reach those targets makes the road much more difficult and likely makes him the underdog, however.

Oh I agree, this is just like when people were saying “Dems need to win the early vote and VBM in Florida by 600k to win!” which was... dumb lol.

But the trend seems to be that ED voting is becoming less R as the day progresses, and this is a bad trend for Republicans.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2020, 03:30:54 PM »

Quite confused why people think these Miami numbers are good for Biden.

E-day is still underperforming partisan registration in Miami and early voting (Early +VBM). The biggest warning signs in Florida remain south Florida for Democrats, but the GOP should be concerned about suburban Orlando and Jax.  IF you want to be optimistic for Bide, cite Seminole county, not Miami-Dade.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

This is a great link to track how turnout relative to 2016 looks by partisan registration. Run by a GOP hack, but the data is solid, just a little delayed.



We know Miami-Dade turnout isn’t as amazing for Dems compared to the rest of the state, but that’s already banked into the statewide numbers we’re seeing. The fact that Dems are outpacing Reps in ED voting in the county is good for Dems statewide.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2020, 04:04:46 PM »

On the topic of Georgia, for those interested:

Anecdotal

Spoke to a close friend who works in the Athens GOP.

Party is feeling fairly confident about their stance in the Special, but increasingly worried about the Perdue/Ossoff race, expecting an overperformance by Libertarian Shane Hazel. Noted that some prominent local Republicans themselves say they are a fan of him. They're generally worried about the Biden/Trump race on the state level, though Clarke went strong for Hillary in '16.

The special is going to a runoff regardless. What is there to feel optimistic about? Or is it that they expect the Republican they want to win will make the runoff?
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2020, 04:07:05 PM »

On the topic of Georgia, for those interested:

Anecdotal

Spoke to a close friend who works in the Athens GOP.

Party is feeling fairly confident about their stance in the Special, but increasingly worried about the Perdue/Ossoff race, expecting an overperformance by Libertarian Shane Hazel. Noted that some prominent local Republicans themselves say they are a fan of him. They're generally worried about the Biden/Trump race on the state level, though Clarke went strong for Hillary in '16.

The special is going to a runoff regardless. What is there to feel optimistic about? Or is it that they expect the Republican they want to win will make the runoff?

They expect the Republican they want to win will make the runoff - poorly worded, my bad.

Oh, ok. Collins?
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2020, 04:43:52 PM »

Pretty sure the first exit poll results released will be “voters’ top two issues are the economy and COVID!”
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2020, 04:46:38 PM »

Honestly, exit polls should be tossed out this year.

No they shouldn't. I want to see the Black male vote, the White male vote, I want to see the Latina vote.

I want to know if the Mexican-American women will vote Trump, because a lot of them are Trumper (Telemundo, Univision talk show hosts, etc.)

Mmm, Mexican women will not vote for Trump...
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2020, 05:16:39 PM »

Yeah, economy is always the #1 issue. No surprise. Racial equality being #2 over coronavirus though...
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2020, 05:21:46 PM »

48% says covid is handled well, wtf???

I cannot get over this number.

That number should be 0%

We handled coronavirus worse than nearly every nation on EARTH.

You do know that Americans are really annoying and think they’re the best at everything, even when it’s obviously not the case, right? So this number tracks.
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