2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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They upgraded the servers. It might be OK.

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Will exit polling account for all the early votes?

I believe so. They've been exit polling during the early vote this year instead of calling people to ask how they early voted.

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https://twitter.com/JonThompsonDC/status/1323748940471275520

That's not good news for Trump. It would be if >50% thought the economy was the most important.

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I see we are overreacting to exit polls after we all discussed about not overreacting to exit polls

There's no way to stop it honestly. Its just gonna happen.

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Yeah, CNN seriously over sampled election day voters. 61% of those sampled voted on election day.

As long as it's weighted, it's fine.

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Yeah, CNN seriously over sampled election day voters. 61% of those sampled voted on election day.

As long as it's weighted, it's fine.

In addition to them not saying anything about weighting, how would they even know at this point how to weight it? They don't know the election day turnout yet.

They can estimate the election day turnout because they know how many people they let walk past without interviewing. You'd have the same issue even if there was no mail voting or EV. I wouldn't assume it's not weighted just because it doesn't say it's weighted.

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As someone who almost never posts (but who has been lurking for 4 years),the most shocking development so far is that atlas hasn't crashed yet. Seems like that was the one thing long time posters could agree on here.

They upgraded the servers. I guess who knows what happens in a few hours but it's running swimmingly so far. 👍

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Alright, I'm going to go eat my traditional election night pizza. Yall enjoy overanalyzing things here.

Update: The pizza was quite good.

Mine's coming at 8:30.

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Hey gang, what's your thoughts on the classic film Kiki's Delivery Service?

When Marnie Was There, Tales from Earthsea, Only Yesterday, The Wind Rises, & Spirited Away are better.

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The fact they didn't call IN and KY shows Trump is in serious trouble.

The polls haven't closed everywhere right? They stopped calling after partials after 2000.

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Too Early to Call means they have a lack of data and want to see some data before calling. Too Close to Call means it's close.

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I was right about Biden winning the primary after Iowa, and I'm being proven right again.

If you've got some analysis we're happy to read it but just repeating over and over how Biden's going to lose everything and how you were right about it is really annoying.

You've been wrong about things too before, like how bad Covid would get.

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I don't think I ever saw VA called on their map on the website. Was it?

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Wow, if Trump wins I hope the polling industry loses its credibility!

I have Trumpers in my family.  I know what makes them click.   (mostly, hostility toward minorities)

They DO NOT answer phone calls from strangers over the phone.

Jeebus Christ, people, how many times do I have to repeat myself? 

Most people don't on both sides of the aisle.

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MSNBC changed AZ from Too Early to Call to Too Early to Call with Biden leading, which means they think he's going to win it.

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MSNBC projects Dems retain control of the House.

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Am I the only one who still thinks Biden wins lol

I think he'll win, probably under 300 EV though.

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Can Biden win Arizona without winning Wisconsin?

Sure but he's probably winning both.

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wtf is this election

Seems like every time though honestly.

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W H E E Z E

https://twitter.com/pcal051/status/1323832944792883200

It's kind of irrelevant how they swung. If he wins it's due to who voted for this time (white people).

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How is the popular vote looking? What do these results mean for the popular vote?

Trump's up 2.7 million but the West Coast likely will put Biden ahead.

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Nebraska-02, is currently plus Biden 8.4.

And, Biden is still leading in NE-01 also ...
https://electionresults.nebraska.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=PC&map=CTY

Do we have any idea how much of the vote this is? Winning NE-01 would be a huge upset so I'm skeptical.

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NBC called this election 2004 meets 1976.

Feels very fitting honestly.

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This is a terrible result for anyone who thought Democrats should ignore the Upper Midwest in favor of the SE and the Sunbelt. Y'all just need to listen to us going forward, and let us choose the nominee. Otherwise, you're going to end up with much worse results than 2016/2020. I remember when people were actually arguing with me that Hillary was a better nominee than Obama in 2008! LOL.

They didn't ignore it though.

What if they concentrated 100% on the midwest and narrowly lost both it and FL/GA/NC/AZ? Hindsight is 20/20.

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That 538 tool assumes that polling was correct and that Trump isn't likely to win Wisconsin/Michigan. It obviously wasn't and Trump obviously has more than a 10% of winning one of them.

It does not assume polling is correct—otherwise I wouldn't have been able to set Florida red for instance, where Biden was up in polling.

I think the way to look at it is that it still uses the polling but doesn't assume it's correct. The point of the model is to estimate the chances the polls are incorrect.