2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 617238 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: November 03, 2020, 03:01:06 PM »
Quote from: new_patomic on November 03, 2020, 02:57:32 PM
Quote from: Dr. RI, Trustbuster on November 03, 2020, 02:54:26 PM

Hmm.

So improved 20K, or about 24K if you take out the update from Miami-Dade which I think was Biden +4K?

What was the final R advantage in Florida in 2016?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2020, 03:04:01 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 03, 2020, 03:02:45 PM



I think there's a long history of R's vote disproportionately in the morning and D's voting disproportionately in the evening?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 06:22:09 PM »
Quote from: Splash on November 03, 2020, 06:19:41 PM
Are these absentee ballots, E-Day ballots, or a mix? NYT doesn't say...

IDK if it's EV or ED in-person, but it can't be mail-ins with that much of the counties reporting because Indiana is a strict excuse-only mail ballot state. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2020, 01:42:07 AM »
Georgia is probably going to happen for Biden, but Wisconsin is looking rough.  
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2020, 03:04:46 AM »

Las Vegas lags the rurals in reporting, and it's an all mail election so no obvious EV/ED split to benefit Trump in late returns.  Biden should still win it.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2020, 03:36:43 AM »
Noticeable Biden improvement in Wisconsin just now.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2020, 03:54:38 AM »
I like Biden's odds in MI, WI, and GA (though full Republican control of the state government gives me pause if it's really close), but I'm thinking PA is a lost cause at this point.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2020, 03:57:17 AM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 04, 2020, 03:55:06 AM
Trump is only down 20k votes in Nevada, a nail biter we didn't expect

The rurals are reporting much faster than Clark. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2020, 03:59:22 AM »
Quote from: Storr on November 04, 2020, 03:58:53 AM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 04, 2020, 03:57:17 AM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 04, 2020, 03:55:06 AM
Trump is only down 20k votes in Nevada, a nail biter we didn't expect

The rurals are reporting much faster than Clark. 
Seems so, Clark is at 75% reporting, while rural counties are 80s and up.

However Biden is losing ground in Washoe over time, which could be concerning for him.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2020, 04:15:57 AM »
Quote from: President Pericles on November 04, 2020, 04:14:11 AM
Any idea what the national popular vote ends up as?

IDK but Biden's CA margin is actually declining over time, so it may not be particularly impressive.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2020, 04:37:16 AM »
Quote from: Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil on November 04, 2020, 04:35:57 AM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 04, 2020, 04:33:14 AM
Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin according to DDHQ.
Is this taking into account the Kenosha absentees being counted?

I don't think so.  Kenosha and Brown (Green Bay) look the same at DDHQ.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2020, 04:39:06 AM »
Now Biden has a meaningful lead in WI.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2020, 04:40:18 AM »
1976-esque
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2020, 04:41:33 AM »
Quote from: The Pieman on November 04, 2020, 04:40:14 AM
What are the chances of a Trump win now?

Well, Trump is now the one who has to sweep.  But it's still a serious possibility until we've heard from Michigan or Georgia and confirmed that Arizona holds.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2020, 02:14:02 PM »
Quote from: xavier110 on November 04, 2020, 02:12:27 PM
Quote from: 7sergi9 on November 04, 2020, 02:07:55 PM


If Nate's napkin math is correct, then Biden barely wins, probably. Doesn't make me comfortable, though

Going down to the wire like Georgia, but moving in the opposite direction.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2020, 02:21:36 PM »
How much is left in Georgia now?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2020, 02:25:19 PM »
Quote from: Xing on November 04, 2020, 02:23:48 PM
Most of what's out in NV is Clark mail, it's not flipping. Is AZ over, though? I thought it had already been called.

AZ is ED absentee dropoffs, which are supposed to be R+19 by registration.  This will be very close.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2020, 02:28:15 PM »
Quote from: Buh her emails! on November 04, 2020, 02:27:21 PM
Should we be worried about NV? What’s going on there?

Outstanding vote is Clark mail ballots so Biden should be fine.  Biden should be worried about AZ, at least as much as Trump should be worried about GA.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2020, 02:40:48 PM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 04, 2020, 02:38:21 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 04, 2020, 02:37:20 PM
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 04, 2020, 02:36:11 PM
Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump
Even Nevada, Georgia and Arizona?

Percent Trump will win:

Georgia: 99%
Arizona: 90%
Nevada: 75%

These are all way too high.  Trump is narrowly favored in AZ and Biden is narrowly favored in NV.  GA depends entirely on how much of the vote is still out.  Anyone have a good update on that?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2020, 02:46:28 PM »
Trump's lead just fell to 79K in Georgia.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2020, 02:48:51 PM »

If there really is more than 10% left in DeKalb, Clayton, Bibb, Chatham, Dougherty, and Muscogee, Biden should take the lead.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2020, 02:51:02 PM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on November 04, 2020, 02:49:01 PM


Mailed in or dropped off in person on ED?

Thinking Trump makes the comeback in AZ now.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2020, 02:52:40 PM »
Whatever happens, really hoping the late arriving postmarked by election day ballots aren't decisive in PA.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2020, 02:57:13 PM »
Quote from: HisGrace on November 04, 2020, 02:55:00 PM
What is the confidence level in Michigan? It is remaining a very tight race. Are the remaining votes not likely to be particularly pro-Trump?

Nearly all of the remaining ballots are mail votes from urban counties.  It's more of a sure thing than AZ/NV/WI.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2020, 02:59:44 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 04, 2020, 02:58:07 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 04, 2020, 02:57:13 PM
Quote from: HisGrace on November 04, 2020, 02:55:00 PM
What is the confidence level in Michigan? It is remaining a very tight race. Are the remaining votes not likely to be particularly pro-Trump?

Nearly all of the remaining ballots are mail votes from urban counties.  It's more of a sure thing than AZ/NV/WI.

Should have clarified that.  MI is likely a couple % Biden margin vs. within 1% in WI.

WI is pretty much completely sure as everything is counted.
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