2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Rand]

420 pages. Nice.

[politics_king]

Well, I'm heavily disappointed in Trump's near-certain loss but I'm already looking ahead to 2022 and 2024.

I suspect we'll probably flip the House in 2022 and pick up a senate seat or two. This will lay the groundwork for our eventual nominee to be in a great position to defeat Biden or Harris in 2024.

Expect a big fight from the Democrats. None of what you said is a shoe-in. Especially depending how Biden handles the pandemic and the aftermath.

[Inmate Trump]

Between NV, AZ, GA, and PA it seems like they all keep saying they'll release more votes "by noon tomorrow!!1" only for the vote dumps to consist of like 10 new votes and then them teasing us again by saying "check back tomorrow at 11 EST for more!"

[Splash]

Trump's lead down to 114,341 votes in PA after Armstrong County's AVs came in. For reference, Trump is winning Armstrong overall 78-21.

[Bootes Void]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Florida?

Yup Trump quadrupled his total votes in victory and tripe in %

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Arkansas is explained by Clinton's roots. Utah is explained by McMullin. And Hawaii loves incumbents for some reason.

Come to think about it, Florida is also incumbent-friendly. Last time they voted against an incumbent was 1980.

[Holmes]

Hawaii loves incumbents meme lives on.

[Bojack Horseman]

420 pages. Nice.

I’ve been going through a lot of 420 this week.

[Hassan 2022]

Between NV, AZ, GA, and PA it seems like they all keep saying they'll release more votes "by noon tomorrow!!1" only for the vote dumps to consist of like 10 new votes and then them teasing us again by saying "check back tomorrow at 11 EST for more!"

It's annoying as f**k.

[Non Swing Voter]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Florida?

New York oddly looks like it might swing to Trump, unless the outstanding stuff is mostly Dems.

[skbl17]

We're talking about January runoffs in Georgia (Perdue is now at 49.98%, so a double Senate runoff is virtually certain), but it's not out of the question there could be a December dress rehearsal:

Public Service Commission chair Bubba McDonald (R) is sitting at 50.15%. If he falls below 50%, there will be a runoff in early December. We'll see where that race stands after certification of the results.

Speaking of certification, some Georgia counties are now reaching the finish line: Glascock, Turner, and Bacon counties have certified their results, so the November election is over (barring a recount) in those three counties. 156 counties to go.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Florida?

New York oddly looks like it might swing to Trump, unless the outstanding stuff is mostly Dems.

It is.

[Hassan 2022]

MA has now passed 2 million votes for Biden, and Trump is still under 1 million. LMAO.

[forsythvoter]

I believe so since it wasn't on 538's list of oustanding counties

Folks, I just realized GA SOS has posted the vote breakdown by ballot type by county. This does not include the uncounted 50K or so ballots.

That means we can estimate the remaining vote with more precision. Chatham existing mail-in votes are 75% Biden, Forsyth is 52% Biden, Fulton is 80% Biden, Clayton is 86%, Gwinnett is 67%. Bryan outside of metro Atlanta is 57% Biden.

Don't know if I'm missing any big counties, but it's averaging all out to between 70-75% Biden. He needs 65% of the uncounted ballots to win.

Is DeKalb fully in?

[lfromnj]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Florida?

New York oddly looks like it might swing to Trump, unless the outstanding stuff is mostly Dems.

I don't know NYC burbs are not pretty, Biden did moderately increase his net vote margin in Westchester by like 15k but its fully in and it swung to Trump. Could possibly swing towards Trump although Im not sure.

[Horus]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Florida?

New York oddly looks like it might swing to Trump, unless the outstanding stuff is mostly Dems.

I have a feeling the Jewish vote, certainly the observant Jewish vote swung Trump.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

it's okay guys

[politics_king]

420 pages everyone! Spark one up if you do that sort of thing.

[Roll Roons]

Well, I'm heavily disappointed in Trump's near-certain loss but I'm already looking ahead to 2022 and 2024.

I suspect we'll probably flip the House in 2022 and pick up a senate seat or two. This will lay the groundwork for our eventual nominee to be in a great position to defeat Biden or Harris in 2024.

Not likely.  You'd need to start cutting deep into the suburban districts that are trending away from the GOP to win back the house.  And the senate map looks awful for Republicans.

It's far from impossible that the suburbs bounce back with Trump out of office.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It looks like Ralston is really close to calling it for Biden in Nevada.

[brucejoel99]

It looks like Ralston is really close to calling it for Biden in Nevada.

If only a network could finally do the same.

[forsythvoter]

That was an alarmingly large amount of blue lol

it's okay guys

[rhg2052]

it's okay guys

༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ BLEORGIA TAKE MY ENERGY ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Going by NYT, Trump's 15.8% places 2020 as the worst performance for a Republican presidential candidate in DeKalb since 1936, when Alf Landon got 13.3%.

[Crucial Waukesha]

I hope that a lot of Pennsylvania counties are wrapping up their counting soon and will dump a bunch of votes.  This really slow trickle today has been brutal