2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 606936 times)
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
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Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« on: November 03, 2020, 05:13:38 PM »
Don't make me post this again:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/be-wary-of-exit-polls-this-year-well-and-all-years/
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
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*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2020, 05:15:13 PM »


It's over.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
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*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 05:49:22 PM »
Quote from: new_patomic on November 03, 2020, 05:47:47 PM




Not enough. Trump’s going down, Bugs Bunny can spare Florida.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 06:10:50 PM »
Quote from: Jeff Bezos Yesman on November 03, 2020, 06:08:49 PM
It's going to be interesting when Kentucky comes up..



Biden is definitely winning Franklin County at least in addition to Fayette and Jefferson.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 06:13:21 PM »

Nice.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2020, 06:15:19 PM »
I’m honestly just amazed this forum is stable and responsive.

Impressive!
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2020, 06:31:22 PM »
Biden appears to be up in WOODFORD COUNTY, KY at the moment. If that holds, Josh Hicks (running for KY-06) is in for a very good night, as is Biden himself obviously.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2020, 06:34:09 PM »

Didn’t I tell y’all that Fayette would be at least 60% for Biden?

Over and over again I said it.

And you laughed at me. You LAUGHED!
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2020, 06:35:34 PM »
Quote from: Horus on November 03, 2020, 06:33:43 PM
Uh oh, Robertson county KY is almost 100% and it's showing a Trump swing.

Statistically insignificant swing in a tiny rural county while all early indications are he’s getting blown out of the water in suburbs. Not even close to enough for him, quit bedwetting.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2020, 06:38:55 PM »
THOSE KENTON COUNTY NUMBERS, MY GOD!!!

AHHHHHHH I’M GONNA C-M!!!!!
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2020, 06:40:20 PM »
Trump is completely and utterly f—ked. I’ve seen enough, calling it right now. Those Kenton and Fayette numbers are more than enough.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2020, 06:43:43 PM »

Well, that was always extremely dumb.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2020, 06:45:57 PM »
Quote from: new_patomic on November 03, 2020, 06:44:03 PM
The problem will overanalyzing these Indiana numbers if they're mostly early/absentee votes, the remaining vote is probably gonna skew more Republican

But Biden is already outperforming HRC in raw vote in many places, and even if the remaining vote skews heavily R, it would still be a huge swing towards Dems from 2016.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2020, 06:51:06 PM »

The fact that this even has to be said, LOL

Biden could well win Kenton and Campbell counties outright, and Fayette+Jefferson by massive margins. They will NOT be able to call KY at poll close in 10 minutes most likely.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2020, 06:57:36 PM »
A few bold predictions:

1. Biden wins Kenton and Campbell counties. In addition to (easily) Franklin County.

2. Biden wins Fayette and Jefferson counties and ends up in at least the mid-60s in both.

3. Biden MAY win back Elliott County.

4. They will NOT be able to call Kentucky at poll close.

5. Trump wins Kentucky in the end by low-mid double digits, an abysmal margin compared to 2016.

6. People who unironically thought Biden being a white man wouldn’t matter in states like Kentucky, and that he’d do worse than Obama and Hillary, will have a ton of crow to eat.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2020, 07:01:29 PM »
THEY CALLED INDIANA BUT NOT KENTUCKY LOL
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2020, 07:11:59 PM »
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on November 03, 2020, 07:11:06 PM
Josh Hicks up big on Andy Barr in KY-6. He leads 58.3-40.4 with 31% of the vote in.

I TOLD YOU ALL!!!
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2020, 07:12:33 PM »
This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2020, 07:15:27 PM »
Quote from: Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️ on November 03, 2020, 07:13:19 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 03, 2020, 07:11:59 PM
Quote from: NewYorkExpress on November 03, 2020, 07:11:06 PM
Josh Hicks up big on Andy Barr in KY-6. He leads 58.3-40.4 with 31% of the vote in.

I TOLD YOU ALL!!!

That is largely because a huge chunk of what reported so far is the Lexington early vote. Hicks will lose ground when other votes come in.

I still think he can win the district, especially with Trump seemingly crashing and burning from 2016 here.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2020, 07:18:32 PM »
Miami-Dade is not too shocking, as Wasserman has been telling us that’s pretty much the only place Trump has made significant gains. Might not matter with swings elsewhere in the state though.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:07 PM »
WV too early to call???

My god, Biden is making HUGE gains with white voters, clearly.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2020, 07:31:35 PM »

Right here. Maybe we lose FL, we still win so don’t start gloating yet.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2020, 07:33:35 PM »
Quote from: GoTfan on November 03, 2020, 07:32:31 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on November 03, 2020, 07:31:35 PM

Right here. Maybe we lose FL, we still win so don’t start gloating yet.

Weren't you already gloating about Biden winning Florida by miles?

Indications were good until Miami-Dade.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2020, 07:40:04 PM »
Quote from: Clarko95 on November 03, 2020, 07:37:12 PM
This goddamned state terrorizes us every four years
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,302
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2020, 07:41:17 PM »

Yeah, might wanna wait until your “Biden wins WI and PA but loses MI” prediction comes true buddy.
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