2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[pppolitics]

After the dust settles, we all need to have a conversation about why more attention wasn't put on GA this election (by the Rs especially). I think Rs really had an attitude that this state was un-flippable because of history and severely underestimate the suburban backlash that was pretty evident to anyone who lived within 50 miles of Atlanta. People can read my prior posts, but the warning signs in the suburbs were there.

Also, states like GA don't have enough WWC voters to win the state (given their R support is already maxed out) but have a ton of college-educated white voters in the suburbs whose support was already pretty lukewarm towards the R party. It looks like a number of folks in this group flipped this year and may have turned GA blue with them. And I am one of them, btw.

...probably because the polls showed Georgia to be a reached state on the right FL and NC.

[wbrocks67]

Will be getting Biden's victory speech tonight?

If PA actually counts, then hopefully.

I mean, the noon thing should've been taken lightly. Boockvar has saying since last night though that we should be done nearly counting by the end of today.

[wbrocks67]

So Biden needs just 60% in Pennsylvania now?

And he's been winning them by nearly 80%. It's quite possible PA is not close.

[GALeftist]

After the dust settles, we all need to have a conversation about why more attention wasn't put on GA this election (by the Rs especially). I think Rs really had an attitude that this state was un-flippable because of history and severely underestimate the suburban backlash that was pretty evident to anyone who lived within 50 miles of Atlanta. People can read my prior posts, but the warning signs in the suburbs were there.

Also, states like GA don't have enough WWC voters to win the state (given their R support is already maxed out) but have a ton of college-educated white voters in the suburbs whose support was already pretty lukewarm towards the R party. It looks like a number of folks in this group flipped this year and may have turned GA blue with them. And I am one of them, btw.

Ditto this. I remember I said something about the GOP hemorrhaging suburban votes a while back which turned out to be more true than even I expected at the time. Even if Trump narrowly wins Georgia, which looks increasingly unlikely, this should be setting off alarms with the Georgia and national Republican parties, and my hope is that the Democrats will realize this state is now infinitely more winnable than Ohio, Iowa, or Florida.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

I know people will doom Warnock & Ossoff because of Dems' poor history in runoffs but THE DEMS MADE 2 RUNOFFS IN GEORGIA AND BIDEN CAN STILL WIN THE STATE - celebrate a little.

[rhg2052]

This is agonizing.

[wbrocks67]

Biden is actually up to +10.5 in New Mexico now. Would think that bodes well for AZ.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Biden is actually up to +10.5 in New Mexico now. Would think that bodes well for AZ.

Yes, and the RGV looks a lot less bad than it did at the start of this.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324407942192472064

Oof, this hurts

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Biden is actually up to +10.5 in New Mexico now. Would think that bodes well for AZ.

Tbh I'm surprised considering what happened with Tejanos.

[MillennialModerate]

I know people will doom Warnock & Ossoff because of Dems' poor history in runoffs but THE DEMS MADE 2 RUNOFFS IN GEORGIA AND BIDEN CAN STILL WIN THE STATE - celebrate a little.

Well with all the crap I’ve gotten about my take

Take it to the bank, cash the checks it’s gaining intrest:

Dems won’t win Georgia.

We should be beyond moral victories

[ultraviolet]

Real life question - how is possible to have 30% of the vote in the Philly area crawling for what is now going on 48-72 hours? The rest of the country has counted, the rest of the states. Other urban areas with hundreds of thousands of votes wrapped up in a day. Detroit yesterday. Florida counted millions of votes in hours, .etc .etc.

How can you possible fck this up that hard? It isn't acceptable.

It’s the sloths

[ajc0918]

So it appears Trump beat the polls because he was able to turn out more white, non-college voters. Do we think this is sustainable and will these voters turn out for a Senate run off on Jan 5th?

[Illiniwek]

Trump's lead in GA down to 11k.

[mark_twain]

Real life question - how is possible to have 30% of the vote in the Philly area crawling for what is now going on 48-72 hours? The rest of the country has counted, the rest of the states. Other urban areas with hundreds of thousands of votes wrapped up in a day. Detroit yesterday. Florida counted millions of votes in hours, .etc .etc.

How can you possible fck this up that hard? It isn't acceptable.

As the Republicans have been saying recently, America is a constitutional republic, not a democracy.

Each state is given a reasonable degree of freedom to carry out its own affairs. Counting the popular vote for elections is one of them.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Biden is actually up to +10.5 in New Mexico now. Would think that bodes well for AZ.

Tbh I'm surprised considering what happened with Tejanos.

As I've written above - the RGV seems to have improved as more returns have come in. The trends are definitely still there but much less marked. It isn't close at all in Cuellar's race.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump's lead in GA down to 11k.

Biden +7,000 since this morning

[Person Man]

Trump's lead in GA down to 11k.

Biden +7,000 since this morning

How many left?

[President Johnson]

Is it possible Joe Biden takes Pennsylvania by a larger margin percentage-wise than Michigan? That would truly make him Scranton Joe.

[lfromnj]

Biden is actually up to +10.5 in New Mexico now. Would think that bodes well for AZ.

Tbh I'm surprised considering what happened with Tejanos.

Albequerque+Santa Fe+Los Alamos were solid  for D's while also Native Americans came decent for Biden. Was kinda hard to tell with the very high GJ in 2016 share.

[Ancestral Republican]

Perdue at 49.98% Ossoff has done it their will be 2 Georgia runoffs!

Is there just going to be an Ossoff runoff in the first year of every new presidency from here on out? Should we just go ahead and pencil one in for 2025 as well?

At least we'll get the old "he's spending his Ossoff" joke from Ben Shapiro again.

For real. These are easily going to be the most expensive senate races in American history.

Unfortunately. We have seen with McGrift, Gideon, Harrison that these are wasted millions. The more money you spend, the less effective it is, there are very few voters left whose polarized political vote can be changed by seeing ads. I mean, most people don't even have cable anymore.

[Tender Branson]

Anything new ?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Biden is actually up to +10.5 in New Mexico now. Would think that bodes well for AZ.

Tbh I'm surprised considering what happened with Tejanos.

As I've written above - the RGV seems to have improved as more returns have come in. The trends are definitely still there but much less marked. It isn't close at all in Cuellar's race.

Yeah. Vicente Gonzalez's is weird though. Could be because his district is less urban RGV and more rural RGV. There could be a serious divergence between McAllen/Laredo/Harlingen/Brownsville and the adjacent rural counties.

[Non Swing Voter]

Kind of feels like Biden is the clear favorite in Georgia now but the final margin will be tiny (a couple thousand).

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324407942192472064

Oof, this hurts

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324408845624631297?s=20