2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/disneywjoseph/status/1324209968602492929?s=20

*Arizona

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I really hope Trump is left out to dry by the GOP Establishment. It's definitely not a wise move politically to keep themselves associated with him. If McConnell and co. stick with him, they're ensuring Dem turnout in the GA runoffs will be through the roof. They're endangering PA, WI, NC Senate Seats in 2022. And they're giving Brown and Tester a good shot at re-election.

How does sticking with Trump endanger NC? That state was trending Democratic until he stepped in. I get that there's a risk his base won't turn out in 2022 while suburbanites might remain against a Trump-friendly GOP, but I think that's very likely to be eclipsed by a drop in Democratic base turnout in a midterm of what was always likely to be an unambitious presidency.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Has someone checked on Kimberly Klacik

Loosing 70-30

She actually tweeted a pretty gracious concession and congratulated Mfume.

I would not call this gracious lol

https://twitter.com/kimKBaltimore/status/1323845115958493185

It’s quite gracious by Republican standards

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Apparently I heard from reddit that Biden outperformed Ilhan Omar by 16 points in her district, can anyone confirm this?

Yes.

https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/results/Index?ErsElectionId=136&scenario=StateFedCongressional&DistrictId=560&show=Go

It's even worst than that, he outperformed her by 24 points lol

....no? 80-64=16

Going to bet that the underperformance was mainly in the suburban parts of MN-05 + Kenwood/Southwest Minneapolis, but I could be wrong.

Not really. For example Biden got 91% in my precinct and she got 81%, a 10 point underperformance. Less than district-wide but still notable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I really hope Trump is left out to dry by the GOP Establishment. It's definitely not a wise move politically to keep themselves associated with him. If McConnell and co. stick with him, they're ensuring Dem turnout in the GA runoffs will be through the roof. They're endangering PA, WI, NC Senate Seats in 2022. And they're giving Brown and Tester a good shot at re-election.

How does sticking with Trump endanger NC? That state was trending Democratic until he stepped in. I get that there's a risk his base won't turn out in 2022 while suburbanites might remain against a Trump-friendly GOP, but I think that's very likely to be eclipsed by a drop in Democratic base turnout in a midterm of what was always likely to be an unambitious presidency.

I don't think that's a given at all. The Dem coalition is higher-propensity in regards to voting than it was even 10 years ago.

[politics_king]

I really hope Trump is left out to dry by the GOP Establishment. It's definitely not a wise move politically to keep themselves associated with him. If McConnell and co. stick with him, they're ensuring Dem turnout in the GA runoffs will be through the roof. They're endangering PA, WI, NC Senate Seats in 2022. And they're giving Brown and Tester a good shot at re-election.

I'm sure Brown is safe, Tester depending on the person running against him could have a good challenge and PA/WI/NC and possibly KY because Rand Paul will Rand Paul will be competitive.

[Torie]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Florida?

New York oddly looks like it might swing to Trump, unless the outstanding stuff is mostly Dems.

It is. Here in NY, they don't even start counting the mail-in/absentee votes until tomorrow. We won't know the full results until a week or too. However, it's heavily from Democratic voters.

In my county, the Dem party sent out absentee ballot request forms to every registered Democrat. So I voted by absentee ballot about 3 weeks ago (it was weird for me to vote straight Dem for the first time in my life, but whatever). They made it seem that the forms came from the board of elections, which caused a contretemps. In any event, the absentee ballot vote is about 80% from registered Dems, about twice the Dem percentage of registered voters in my county. The percentage of the vote in the county that is absentee is about 13% or so.

So unlike in prior years, where you did not have a right to vote absentee without claiming you were bed ridden or going to be out of town, and the absentee vote largely replicated the election day vote), and now do, the absentee vote in NY will be very heavily Dem.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The irony is that he would have had it all if he'd just stayed as the host of the Apprentice. He screwed himself by running for president.

He really didn't. Being a Reality TV star was a decent living, but it wasn't enough to get him out of his deep debt hole. Running for President was a way to find new suckers (and boy did he ever), and to try to fend off his creditors (and once he got elected, do favors for his owners, too).

[Roronoa D. Law]

Biden up 13 points in Jefferson County AL, home to Birmingham. Largest Democrat margin since FDR landslide in 1944.

[Tekken_Guy]

I really hope Trump is left out to dry by the GOP Establishment. It's definitely not a wise move politically to keep themselves associated with him. If McConnell and co. stick with him, they're ensuring Dem turnout in the GA runoffs will be through the roof. They're endangering PA, WI, NC Senate Seats in 2022. And they're giving Brown and Tester a good shot at re-election.

I'm sure Brown is safe, Tester depending on the person running against him could have a good challenge and PA/WI/NC and possibly KY because Rand Paul will Rand Paul will be competitive.

Brown is far from safe. And there's no one in MT that Tester is guaranteed to beat.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

We might as well give it a rest for today guys. None of these states want to report anything and they are all acting like snails when it comes to counting these remaining votes.

Also, the Biden campaign says that they don't expect a winner to be declared today. This is all just extremely annoying and frustrating.

[Alben Barkley]

Not sure if it’s been noted yet or not, but Deer Lodge and Silver Bow, MT will continue their Democratic streak.

[politics_king]

Has someone checked on Kimberly Klacik

Loosing 70-30

She actually tweeted a pretty gracious concession and congratulated Mfume.

I would not call this gracious lol

https://twitter.com/kimKBaltimore/status/1323845115958493185

It’s quite gracious by Republican standards

She has to have political aspirations, doing this goes a long way if she runs for State Assembly/Senate, Congress again, Mayor or even Governor.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Also per NYT: Trump's 16.7% margin of defeat is the worst for a Republican in Chatham County since 1948, when Dewey lost to Truman by 20.5%.

SAVANNAH JOE

[Person Man]

Georgia's Fulton County has finished processing ballots, but more than 50,000 still to be counted in state

As of 12:45 p.m. ET, there are approximately 50,401 ballots still outstanding across Georgia, according to a statement by Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

Almost all of these outstanding ballots are absentee ballots, Georgia Deputy Press Secretary Jordan Fuchs tells CNN.

Fulton County — the largest county in the state and home to Atlanta —has finished processing ballots, the county commissioner said in a news conference.

Are these going to be as Dem friendly going forward?

[Panda Express]

As expected, Madison County, Alabama had a healthy swing towards Biden. This is Huntsville, a more educated, techy city. Went from Trump+17 last election to Trump+8 this election.

[ProudModerate2]

We might as well give it a rest for today guys. None of these states want to report anything and they are all act ling snails when it comes to counting these remaining votes.

Also, the Biden campaign says that they don't expect a winner to be declared today. This is all just extremely annoying and frustrating.

The wait is killing me.

[wbrocks67]

More than I thought still. Biden really could pull out a pretty big win in PA.

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324420356187172870

[Bojack Horseman]

Trump is like the death row inmate being served his last meal right now. Filing tons of baseless appeals to try and delay the inevitable. Since we aren’t getting a call tomorrow I guess he got a 24 hour stay of execution.

[jd7171]

Trumps lead in PA down to 1.7....drop from from Armstrong and Mercer counties.

[MillennialModerate]

Any idea on where joes national popular vote margin will end up (in points)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Beaufort County SC is showing a major improvement for Biden relative to Hillary in 2016.

[forsythvoter]

After the dust settles, we all need to have a conversation about why more attention wasn't put on GA this election (by the Rs especially). I think Rs really had an attitude that this state was un-flippable because of history and severely underestimate the suburban backlash that was pretty evident to anyone who lived within 50 miles of Atlanta. People can read my prior posts, but the warning signs in the suburbs were there.

Also, states like GA don't have enough WWC voters to win the state (given their R support is already maxed out) but have a ton of college-educated white voters in the suburbs whose support was already pretty lukewarm towards the R party. It looks like a number of folks in this group flipped this year and may have turned GA blue with them. And I am one of them, btw.

[Ancestral Republican]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1324324886257508353
A reminder to Republicans that Black people aren't stupid.  I've been consistent in arguing that Black voters are one of the most pragmatic groups in the country.  They tend to be more conservative on social issues, but see wedge issues for what they are, and continue to vote for their economic interests.

This guy's a black guy? His real name's Clarence. And Clarence's parents have a real nice business.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Any idea on where joes national popular vote margin will end up (in points)

Probably something like 52-47.