2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah, re: CA25, if the poll has Biden essentially doing the same as Clinton in that district, I'd say it's definitely R-leaning

Smith is also a horrific candidate while Garcia is on track to be the John katko of the decade

I don’t think we’ve seen much evidence of either of those things.  Both seem like above average - albeit hardly exceptional - candidates.  The dynamics of the special created a fluke result that doesn’t mean much regardless of who wins in November.

[Brittain33]

Katko holds a Lean D district because voters are engaged and know him and his name.
Garcia holds a Lean R turning Toss-Up district because of low engagement in a special election, and might hold it.

[Skye]

Monmouth polled IA's CDs:



https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_IA_080620/

[Roll Roons]

Monmouth polled IA's CDs:



https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_IA_080620/

I am very surprised about the first and second districts. I figured IA-01 would be very close and IA-02 would be a more comfortable Dem lead. Though I expected Feenstra to lead big.

[lfromnj]

The gop closed in at the end for IA 1st for the past 3 cycles.
I think the environment  saves Fink this year but it probably will be close.

[Pollster]

Monmouth polled IA's CDs:



https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_IA_080620/

Looking at their webpage, the IA-03 poll is the only one with a large enough sample size to make confident assessments from.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Monmouth polled IA's CDs:



https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_IA_080620/

I am very surprised about the first and second districts. I figured IA-01 would be very close and IA-02 would be a more comfortable Dem lead. Though I expected Feenstra to lead big.

Small sample sizes. Even a Republican internal a week ago could only find a tie between Meeks and Hart.

[wbrocks67]

I do believe, though, that Finkenauer is a stronger incumbent than people are assuming

[lfromnj]

Katko holds a Lean D district because voters are engaged and know him and his name.
Garcia holds a Lean R turning Toss-Up district because of low engagement in a special election, and might hold it.

Uh you could maybe say Lean R turning tossup for something like CA 48. CA 25 voted for obama in 08 and was like Romney +1.5. Its clearly Lean D by now.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A Young Kim internal in the CA-39 rematch has her trailing Cisneros.

Cisneros (D-inc): 47%
Kim (R): 45%

https://t.co/H7tJHlB1F9

[Gracile]

A Young Kim internal in the CA-39 rematch has her trailing Cisneros.

Cisneros (D-inc): 47%
Kim (R): 45%

https://t.co/H7tJHlB1F9

Good numbers for Kim - she's outperforming her winning margin in 2018 when she was elected the first Korean-American congresswoman.

[wbrocks67]

Hm, seems Cisneros is doing better than the CW

[Roll Roons]

Wasserman changed a few House ratings:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1291718992378449925

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wasserman changed a few House ratings:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1291718992378449925

Huh! I thought Upton was safe after all the stuff that came out about his opponent.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wasserman changed a few House ratings:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1291718992378449925

Huh! I thought Upton was safe after all the stuff that came out about his opponent.

He probably is

[politicallefty]

I think this really says it all in terms of the House:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1291820992151662599

According to the Cook ratings, Democrats already have 3 Republican seats in the bag. I'm thinking a relatively good night takes Dems to close to or around 250.

[Gracile]

Inside Elections with a ton of rating changes:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1291804033368432641

[politicallefty]

To add to the above post, this is the rundown they offer:

Democrats have a 233-201 majority, with one Libertarian (Amash). Republicans need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority. Democrats are most likely to maintain control with most likely outcome range: No net change to Democrats +12 seats.

[Pericles]

Garcia internal has him leading by 48-41, Biden+5. Given the rules around released internals, it clearly looks like a tossup race for CA-25.

Also a bad poll for the D v D CA53 race:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1291231978679926784?s=20

Clinton won CA-25 by 7 points after it voted for Romney. I'm sceptical of Biden only being up by 5 there, given how well he's doing nationally. Though it does suggest Garcia has a shot, if he is outrunning Trump by so much.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Inside Elections with a ton of rating changes:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1291804033368432641

LOL @ FL-26 at tilt D. Even with Gillum crashing with Cubans he still won this district. If Biden is winning FL, he likely carries this by double digits. Game over

[VAR]

Garcia internal has him leading by 48-41, Biden+5. Given the rules around released internals, it clearly looks like a tossup race for CA-25.

Also a bad poll for the D v D CA53 race:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1291231978679926784?s=20

No, the Garcia internal didn’t include presidential numbers. It’s the Smith internal that has Biden +5 and shows her trailing by “an unspecified low-single digit margin”.

The Smith campaign said its own recent internal polling showed a closer race, with Garcia up by an unspecified low single-digit margin, though the campaign claimed Smith outpaced Garcia by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent, on an "informed' ballot after message testing... The Democratic survey also showed Trump is still deeply unpopular in the district, with an approval rating that's underwater by 14 points. Biden is beating Trump by 5 points, 48 percent to 43 percent, in Smith's survey, which was conducted by Breakthrough Campaigns.

Embarrassing.

[wbrocks67]

If Trump is underwater nearly 15% in that district, I find it hard to imagine Biden is only winning by 5.

[Storr]

Inside Elections with a ton of rating changes:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1291804033368432641

LOL @ FL-26 at tilt D. Even with Gillum crashing with Cubans he still won this district. If Biden is winning FL, he likely carries this by double digits. Game over

I'm 100% on board with NC-8 being competitive.

[lfromnj]

Inside Elections with a ton of rating changes:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1291804033368432641

LOL @ FL-26 at tilt D. Even with Gillum crashing with Cubans he still won this district. If Biden is winning FL, he likely carries this by double digits. Game over

I'm 100% on board with NC-8 being competitive.

All Im going to say its easily one of the top 5 seats Democrats should contest .

[DaWN]

LOL @ FL-26 at tilt D. Even with Gillum crashing with Cubans he still won this district. If Biden is winning FL, he likely carries this by double digits. Game over

I think it's a similar phenomenon to why PA-08 was rated as 'Lean D Could be a surprise flip' in 2018 when it very blatantly was not - in the middle of a wave election environment, the pundits are singling out a race or two that they want to use to show that they're not hacks.