2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nick Freitas is a pretty weak candidate though, so I can understand the rating change if that is who the Republicans are settling on, but I also think it's silly to have VA-2 as a tossup right now.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1207481858751180802

The media is REALLY forcing this "impeachment is a death sentence for Dems~~~~" narrative REALLY hard and it's really incredulous and annoying.

Well, it depends of the districts you’re looking at. In PA-8, NY-22, NY-19, NY-11, SC-1, OK-5, MN-7, ME-2, VA-7, MI-8 impeachment is likely to be a big anchor around the neck of your party’s candidates.

Err...not really. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

McLaughlin GCB poll shows Democrats up by 3:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245205231308345344?s=20

I stopped reading at “McLaughlin”

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1255264363654656000?s=20

Interesting that AL/GA/TX/ are not on the list.

Because the dscc is run by morons that's why! They should spend a cent on IA and go all in on GA, GA-S and TX. What, do they want to have a useless 51-52 seat majority that cant pass any legislation?

Honestly, we have a better chance of flipping IA than GA-S or TX this Senate cycle.  I also wonder if there has been some internal polling showing that Reynolds' disastrous handling of COVID-19 has done some real damage the Republican brand in Iowa.  

Plus, Ernst has always been a paper tiger coasting on state trends.  She only got elected in the first place because of a combination of Bernard Belushi's incompetence and the fact that 2014 was a major Republican wave year.  She's the sort of incumbent who could easily get swept out in a wave if she's caught asleep at the wheel and despite the IA-3 thing, Greenfield has been doing respectably for a wave insurance candidate.  Even if the election had been held in 2016 (a fairly Republican year in its own right, but nothing like 2010 or 2014), I think there'd be like a 45% chance Ernst would lose assuming Democrats ran a stronger candidate than Benjamin Button.

That all being said, I'd rather see the money spent in Montana, North Carolina, and especially Maine.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1255264363654656000?s=20

Interesting that AL/GA/TX/ are not on the list.

Because the dscc is run by morons that's why! They should spend a cent on IA and go all in on GA, GA-S and TX. What, do they want to have a useless 51-52 seat majority that cant pass any legislation?

Honestly, we have a better chance of flipping IA than GA-S or TX this Senate cycle.  I also wonder if there has been some internal polling showing that Reynolds' disastrous handling of COVID-19 has done some real damage the Republican brand in Iowa.  

Plus, Ernst has always been a paper tiger coasting on state trends.  She only got elected in the first place because of a combination of Bernard Belushi's incompetence and the fact that 2014 was a major Republican wave year.  She's the sort of incumbent who could easily get swept out in a wave if she's caught asleep at the wheel and despite the IA-3 thing, Greenfield has been doing respectably for a wave insurance candidate.  Even if the election had been held in 2016 (a fairly Republican year in its own right, but nothing like 2010 or 2014), I think there'd be like a 45% chance Ernst would lose assuming Democrats ran a stronger candidate than Benjamin Button.

That all being said, I'd rather see the money spent in Montana, North Carolina, and especially Maine.

I don’t know where people get off thinking Iowa is still more likely to flip than Georgia after all the evidence we have to the contrary

Our leading candidate in the GA special is a random some dude pastor from Savannah who ran over his wife’s foot with his car during an argument.  The race will also likely end up in a December run-off.  Iowa is a long-shot, but not impossible.  Warnock may well come far closer than Greenfield - or not - but he has a much harder ceiling than she does.

I don’t have a problem with Democrats spending a bit in IA as wave insurance, but it shouldn’t be instead of GA/GA-S, especially given the way GA has been trending.

I agree about spending against Perdue, but spending on the GA special is just flushing money down the drain.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Riggleman seems like the dude who probably does win the few Republicans in the UVA college(btw the most conservative area in college towns are actually the campus's themselves, because they include people from all around the state and that includes conservatives who had to choose a college anyway.) but the problem for him is that Coronavirus has shutdown campus and all those living there so he won't get any delegates there, Ik liberty university is really conservative, but he probably wins college students there too but corona virus shut that down too.

It's not just the students at Liberty University, apparently Jerry Falwell Jr. also endorsed Riggleman even though Good used to work at Liberty University. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

There’s a good chance Trump loses TX-21, TX-10 and TX-31. These seats were all within five points in 2018 even after being written off by the DCCC

Dccc gonna dccc. These bozos are spending hoardes of money on ME-2 instead even though everyone knows Golden has no chance

Err...Golden has a much better chance of winning than we do of picking up TX-10 or even coming within double-digits in TX-31.  In fact, Golden is more likely than not going to win reelection.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

There’s a good chance Trump loses TX-21, TX-10 and TX-31. These seats were all within five points in 2018 even after being written off by the DCCC

Dccc gonna dccc. These bozos are spending hoardes of money on ME-2 instead even though everyone knows Golden has no chance

Err...Golden has a much better chance of winning than we do of picking up TX-10 or even coming within double-digits in TX-31. In fact, Golden is more likely than not going to win reelection.

Jdb, I'm pretty sure an intelligent person like you cannot seriously believe TX-10 and TX-31 are not competitive. Siegel slightly underarm Beto, but that was with little attention to the race and the DCCC not spending that much money on it. And TX-31 John Carter didnt even outrun Cruz! If money is spent on the race it will be competitive.
And no, Golden is not likely to win re election. It's possible but he's definitely the underdog at this point. The voters in the district are not progressives like the bernie cult insisted they were. You really think that Golden is going to win when they put a picture of him next to Kamala Harris in one of their dumb ads and claim "Jared Golden endorsed Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, who want to overturn hyde amendment and allow your taxpayer dollars to be used to fund infanticide." And it doesnt matter how moderate he is, if he endorses Biden/Harris, he'll be toast.

I'd say ME-2 is Tilt-D although Golden really lucked out that the best the Republicans could do was Eric Brakey.  TX-10 is definitely competitive, but I have it at Lean-R.  TX-31 should be competitive and would've been with Hegar, but as it stands, we don't have a half decent nominee so it is Safe R.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

TX-31 and to an arguably lesser degree TX-2 are Safe R b/c we couldn’t recruit a credible candidate.  If Mike Collier ran in TX-2 and Hager ran in TX-31 then that would be a different conversation, but they didn’t and no one else stepped up to the plate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

TX-31 and to an arguably lesser degree TX-2 are Safe R b/c we couldn’t recruit a credible candidate.  If Mike Collier ran in TX-2 and Hager ran in TX-31 then that would be a different conversation, but they didn’t and no one else stepped up to the plate.

I think you are overstating how much candidate quality makes a difference. As long as the Democrats have someone halfway competent then they should at least run close to Biden. Obviously these districts are not really prime targets in the way TX-24 and TX-22 are (and to TX-10 and TX-21 to an extent), but the direction they're headed in is clear. Putting them at Safe R might be going a bit far.

The thing is that we don't have halfway competent candidates in TX-2 or especially not in TX-31.  Now Sbane made a good point re: TX-2, but even so, it's a long shot at best.  Also, I'd argue TX-21 flips before TX-22 although both are great targets and could definitely flip in November.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1265262975096684545

Anyone but Plame!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Was just a thought. She is facing primary battles and refused to pay party dues, severing required relations with the Democratic Party.

Her opponent is a corporatist DINO from CNBC

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Reoccurring problem for Freitas and...maybe Bigfoot man avoids his primary? It will come down to the court's and election board to decide on whether to forgive their sins or not, since the paperwork has now been hand delivered a few days late.

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1271551373591687170?s=20

If Freitas misses the primary ballot again for the same reason, that would be amazing

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

I'd look into Texas. Either the handful of US House races that are quickly shifting from Solid/Likely R status or the Beto/Republican State House races that may decide control of the chamber

This, competitive Texas State House races are your best bet.  Flipping it would be huge for redistricting and almost certainly scare TX Republicans into either overreaching with a complete dummymander or passing a light-red mild gerrymander.  Either way, it’d be a big win for us.

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

Unironically Kris Kobach. Him winning the primary would boost Democrats to tossup in that seat

This is a terrible idea, if you’re gonna donate in this race then wait until after the Republican primary.  If Kobach wins and Bollier has a shot 1-2 weeks after Labor Day AND is wanting for money, then donating to her campaign might make sense.  Donating to Kobach is crazy though, with all due respect.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Iowa should still be Lean R.

I thought there were at least two polls with Ernst trailing Greenfield.

Polling in Iowa systematically underestimates the GOP. Remember when Reynolds was trailing Hubbell?

Nah, it’s Tilt D at this point

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yeah, re: CA25, if the poll has Biden essentially doing the same as Clinton in that district, I'd say it's definitely R-leaning

Smith is also a horrific candidate while Garcia is on track to be the John katko of the decade

I don’t think we’ve seen much evidence of either of those things.  Both seem like above average - albeit hardly exceptional - candidates.  The dynamics of the special created a fluke result that doesn’t mean much regardless of who wins in November.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wasserman changed a few House ratings:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1291718992378449925

Huh! I thought Upton was safe after all the stuff that came out about his opponent.

He probably is

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

MO-02 (PPP)

Schupp 45%
Wagner 42%

Favorabilities:
Schupp 27/18
Wagner 38/36

http://files.www.thehousemajoritypac.com/research/MO-02_poll.pdf

Generic ballot: R 46/45 (Biden leads 48/46)

I wouldn't be surprised. This race is a tossup and Biden could likely carry this district too.

Wagner is going to do better than a Generic R. She overperformed Hawley by 7 point IIRC.

Wagner is gonna lose

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wow... though unsurprising given the numerous internal polls we've seen

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1296111291296292864

Big if true

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Amy Kennedy may be one of the best house recruits this cycle. Which is kinda funny since didn't the DCCC not even endorse her as the original candidate?

Also, CO-03 is super interesting. Boebert has like no money at all.

The DCCC recruited Amy Kennedy; George Norcross was pushing a much weaker candidate who lost the primary in a small upset.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1312000202555957251

How much of Peter Meijer's was through self-funding? 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

LOL!!!! MN-01 is not flipping even in a double digit popular vote win. On the flipside, TX 10 and PA 01 should be Tossup. The turnout in Harris county is through the roof and that is not a good sign for McCaul. PA-01 could stay R but Wallace was an exceptionally bad candidate

The current PA-1 candidate is somehow even weaker than Scott Wallace, but 2020 is probably gonna be an even bigger wave than 2018.  If I had to guess, I’d say MN-1 flips and Fitzpatrick narrowly hangs on, but I’m not very confident about either prediction.  Also, if McCaul loses, it’ll be b/c of Travis County, not Harris County.  I’d say that TX-10 is right on the border between Tilt R and Lean R.  It could definitely flip though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

Yeah, that's a joke. OH-01 before seats like TX-22 is bad enough, but MN-01!? I think TX-22 would go Democratic by double digits before MN-01 flips.

TX-22 actually voted to the right of MN-01.

Tbf I was surprised too

I’d argue Feehan would’ve won if not for the third party guy’s (Pot Party IIRC) freakishly good performance.  Feehan lost so I can’t quite accept accolades, but I think my belief that MN-1 was far from a lost cause has been vindicated. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

Turns out MN-01 would have flipped before every TX Republican seat except TX-24 lol.

I now accept my accolades