Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

I just got my hands on Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise (why so many predictions but some don't)It relates probability well, and as I have suggested, being up 5% in a binary election a year before means little, being up 5% a month before the election is huge. It is from 2012, and it relates much other than elections (like sports, poker, and even chess). What it says of electoral leads as a campaign approaches its conclusion is telling.

On page 63, Figure 2-4 shows the probability of a Senate candidate winning (1998 to 2008) with a certain lead (1, 5, 10, and 20 points) at one year, six months, three months, one month, one week, and one day. Because statewide races for President are much like statewide races for the Senate -- with the qualification that Presidential nominees do not usually make appearances where they see themselves losing -- unless they really are losing nationwide.

Time to election  |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|

(I am going to put this back in my "electoral theory" section because it will remain relevant.

So what conclusions can I draw? You might be surprised that a five-point lead one month before Election Day is no less significant than a twenty-point lead one year before the election. Thus one hears things like Democrats saying "We have a chance of winning West Virginia if everything goes right" and Republicans say that they have a chance of winning Massachusetts... yadda, yadda, yadda. Or is it "Yabba, dabba, doo!" Likewise, being one point ahead on the day before the election is worth almost as much as being five points ahead six months before the election or even ten points ahead  a year before the election.

OK, we all thought in November 2019 that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee unless the Grim Reaper took him away from us, but how many  of us could have predicted that Joe Biden would be the Presidential nominee? Many liberals were looking for grounds on which to impeach the President, but nobody predicted what those grounds would be, and what the consequences would be upon the 2020 election even if Trump got away with some impeachable behavior. Above all, who would have predicted  that this fellow



would be the big event in American politics in 2020.

OK. Politicians cannot change direction on a dime. A leader who loses does acts of unpredictable incompetence or gets tripped up in a scandal. Senators may not be as likely to get the blame for military debacles and blunders of foreign policy -- but the President does. Positive events such as military victories and improvements in economic statistics are less swift to change perceptions than are bad events.,

Polling can be surprisingly stable. But a 5% lead that doesn't mean much in November 2019 (59%, which is insignificant in difference between winning and losing, as there is plenty of time to catch up and plenty of time for events to unfold) is decisive (95% chance of winning) on Election Day in 2020. Electoral results are not so random as they might seem. 

I will backtrack and put this on the first page somehow, loading it onto another post, as it will probably be relevant in the Presidential election of 2024.

[emailking]

I just got my hands on Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise (why so many predictions but some don't)

That's a great book. Has a lot of non-political stuff too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Seniors Citizens are the largest group out there that vote R, they are  not on unemployment,  they are on SSA, they voted for Trump last time and Pelosi is holding up 1200 for Seniors in order to get 200 more for unemployment benefits.  Seniors think that workers get overpaid anyways. Biden was getting the benefit of the doubt due to seniors dying due to Covid 19, but Nursing homes are testing now.

That's why I thought McConnell, Cornyn and Daines were all vulnerable due to old age, but old age can work in their favor too, that's why they will cruise to reelection

[pbrower2a]

I just got my hands on Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise (why so many predictions but some don't)

That's a great book. Has a lot of non-political stuff too.

I had never seen it before. I am ready to redo my seat-of-the-pants estimates of Biden and Trump chances based on match-ups alone.  I would need to do some interpolations, and at this I take the dangers of intrapolation (much less dangerous than interpolation. Obviously 50-50 is 50% for both.



three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|

lead  likelihood

0   50    10  87
1   55    11  88 
2   59    12  89
3   64    13  90
4   69    14  91
5   72    15  92
6   76    16  93
7   80    17  94
8   83    18  95
9   85    19  96

The intrapolation is nearly linear, and that may be inadequate for small leads. This model suggests that ecen a 3-point edge for Biden at this point (late August) is far from trivial.     

[BobbieMac]

Trafalgar was right, although their MN poll has 3 pt House effect, it's a 269 to 279 EC map. Today's NC Cardinal poll shows that the internet polls are the ones showing Bias.  The Heritage that hasTrump tied in WI is right too. Sabato Crystal Ball says he is keeping his ratings at 268, until a mnth before the election,  due to flux polls.

Trump can still win on contesting irregularities in VBM

LA isnt even close, it shows 54 to 38 lead for Trump

NORTH CAROLINA
Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 46%
.#NCsen:
Cunningham (D) 47% (+8)
Tillis (R-inc) 39%@MorningConsult, LV, 8/14-23

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, I dont believe Cunningham is gonna win by 8 pts, he is more likely to win by 2 pts

Sabato still has this race as tossup

[BigSerg]

Trafalgar was right, although their MN poll has 3 pt House effect, it's a 269 to 279 EC map. Today's NC Cardinal poll shows that the internet polls are the ones showing Bias.  The Heritage that hasTrump tied in WI is right too. Sabato Crystal Ball says he is keeping his ratings at 268, until a mnth before the election,  due to flux polls.

Trump can still win on contesting irregularities in VBM

LA isnt even close, it shows 54 to 38 lead for Trump

NORTH CAROLINA
Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 46%
.#NCsen:
Cunningham (D) 47% (+8)
Tillis (R-inc) 39%@MorningConsult, LV, 8/14-23

Hahahaha no

[pbrower2a]

I am ready to redo my seat-of-the-pants estimates of Biden and Trump chances based on match-ups alone.  I would need to do some interpolations, and at this I take the dangers of interpolation (much less dangerous than interpolation. Obviously 50-50 is 50% for both.

State data is from here:


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-donald-trump-opinion-poll-08-16-2020/

August 10.


three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|

lead  likelihood

0   50    10  87
1   55    11  88
2   59    12  89
3   64    13  90
4   69    14  91
5   72    15  92
6   76    16  93
7   80    17  94
8   83    18  95
9   85    19  96

The interpolation is nearly linear, and that may be inadequate for small leads. This model suggests that even a 3-point edge for Biden at this point (late August) is far from trivial.

Here is a map of the probabilities of a Biden win based upon the edge that one or the other has. Numbers are not electoral votes this time: Data is from August 10, so convention bumps do not appear:

 

Biden likelihood 0 to 9 (saturation 8 )
Biden likelihood 10 to 19 (saturation 6)
Biden likelihood 20 to 29 (saturation 4)
Biden likelihood 30 to 39 (saturation 4)
Biden likelihood 41 to 49 (saturation 2)
white  -- tie, exactly even

Biden likelihood 51 to 59 (saturation 2)
Biden likelihood 60 to 69 (saturation 4)
Biden likelihood 70 to 79 (saturation 5)
Biden likelihood 80 to 89 (saturation 6)
Biden likelihood 90 or higher (saturation 8 )

It is already two weeks obsolete, because the numbers are based on Senators winning elections based upon their leads at three months (I have done linear interpolation). This is also the last polling data that both

(1) comes from all 50 states,
(2) from the same time, and
(3) from the same source.   

Senatorial and gubernatorial elections for statewide contests for electoral votes by Presidential campaigns. This may be far from a perfect model. Biden has an 80% chance of winning Wisconsin, which this map shows as the most likely tipping-point state. He also has a 69% chance of winning North Carolina and Florida (each), a 64% chance of winning Arizona, a 50% chance of winning Ohio, and a 41% chance of winning Texas .  These six states are dissimilar enough that they could as well be considered independent events. Trump has about seven chances in 1000 to win all six states in question. (I am not considering Iowa, as Biden is not winning Iowa while losing Wisconsin).

At this point, Biden is trying to consolidate the states that he needs or might need. Trump is trying to keep his hope alive in states in which he has as little as a 20% chance of winning.

Another way of putting it: Trump has about as much chance of winning Wisconsin as Biden does of losing Kansas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 23-25, 1500 adults including 1256 RV

Adults:

Approve 45 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)


RV:

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Biden 50 (nc), Trump 41 (+1)

GCB: D 47 (-2), R 39 (+1)

[solidcoalition]

Wow between that and the new Zogby poll showing Trump up to 52% this month hasn’t gone the way I hoped. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow between that and the new Zogby poll showing Trump up to 52% this month hasn’t gone the way I hoped.  

The election is setting us up for a 269 to 259 and 10 votes in WI is gonna be the decider

That's why Larry Sabato hasnt moved his ratings, and NV, NM and CO never gets polled while AZ, TX, FL and NC constantly gets polled, but at the end will go their partisan ways just like  2000, 2004 and 2016. Ds havent won a close election,  it's that time to do it, in 2020

Polls are for watching for interest, only, the EC map is an open puzzle and whomever gets 270 wins, not 300, 400 or 500

[Devout Centrist]

Wow between that and the new Zogby poll showing Trump up to 52% this month hasn’t gone the way I hoped. 

Oh for f[inks]'s sake

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What happened to QU polling that showed Biden plus 10 in FL and Harrison and McConnell tied , I guess they stop polling when Trump approvals got better, beyond 39 percent. Just like they wont poll MT Senate since Daines has pulled ahead by 6pts. Polls are for ratings too, if it's a close election,  its boring than Biden winning a blowout,  look at TX,  eventhough Hegar is behind 6 to 9

Dont look for a landslide,  Trunp isnt at 39 percent approvals any longer

This election has got crazy, when Harris got picked polls showed Biden back up by 10, now polls show Trump at 52 approvals. Dont forget pre Covid Trump was at 52 after impeachment and Covid caused his approvals to go to 39 percent

Trunp strategy, not my strategy is to win 260 states and win MN with a bland Tina Smith

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow between that and the new Zogby poll showing Trump up to 52% this month hasn’t gone the way I hoped. 

You're relatively new here. Zogby is a low quality pollster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Aug. 19-25, 4428 adults including 3829 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

Biden 44 (-1), Trump 37 (+1)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Biden 47 (-1), Trump 40 (nc)

[Brittain33]

I guess we're seeing the start of a Trump bump?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I guess we're seeing the start of a Trump bump?

If there were any time for him to get one it probably would be during the RNC, but we'll see if, or how long it lasts, and if further polls back it up.

[Brittain33]

I guess we're seeing the start of a Trump bump?

If there were any time for him to get one it probably would be during the RNC, but we'll see if, or how long it lasts, and if further polls back it up.

There are surely some conservative Republicans who love owning the libs but were undecided because of the dreadful state of the country and how Trump behaves on Twitter, but can be won back with this stuff.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I guess we're seeing the start of a Trump bump?

As in going from 40% approval to 43%? Maybe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are gonna see a Trump bump, TX, MT Senate and SC races arent in play anylonger.

AZ and FL are close enough +1 in AZ and +3 in FL for Biden, for Trump to win. Kelly isnt a lock to win Senate race. As Seniors are troubled by Pelosi as she is holding up their 1200 stimulus.

No more 39 percent approvals where Trump will lose TX, lol Hegar. That will be the story when Trump wins TX

I always said these maps are too rosy

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy/Navigator Research, Aug. 21-24, 1319 RV (2-week change)

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Lots of interesting questions in this poll, such as:

Which do you agree with more:
- As president, Donald Trump wants what is best for himself
- As president, Donald Trump wants what is best for the country

A majority (61/39) agrees with "best for himself", including 90% of Democrats, 65% of Independents, and even 25% of Republicans.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

RCP Trump approval hits 44%, first time since late May

[woodley park]

RCP Trump approval hits 44%, first time since late May

Not a meaningful metric, considering the biased approach they take towards determining which polls they throw into their aggregator, and which ones they don't.

[solidcoalition]

A definite upward trend

[Gass3268]

RCP Trump approval hits 44%, first time since late May

Not a meaningful metric, considering the biased approach they take towards determining which polls they throw into their aggregator, and which ones they don't.

Yeah RCP is biased trash. Trump has probably gained on net about 4 points since his worst point at the end of June.