Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

[Brittain33]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

You're citing one outlier as "recent high approvals." That outlier brought his average up to a low 43% for Trump on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

That said, 43% is certainly a "higher approval" compared to the 40% he had in the depths of COVID + George Floyd protests.

[Person Man]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

You're citing one outlier as "recent high approvals." That outlier brought his average up to a low 43% for Trump on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

That said, 43% is certainly a "higher approval" compared to the 40% he had in the depths of COVID + George Floyd protests.

It was 42.6% beforehand.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

Lol, you keep giving us approval numbers and Trump has to win MN, MI, WI or PA, he won't have Benghazi Hillary and he won't have Gary Johnson on the ballot. Trump is gonna lose the election,



MN 50-40 Biden
CO 51-47 Biden
MI 51-44 Biden
PA 51-44 Biden
NM 55-45 Biden
AZ 51-46  Biden
WI Plus 5  Biden

Trump isn't gonna crack the 279 Blue wall, give it up

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

Please learn what an outlier is.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

Please learn what an outlier is.

48% Fox News
47% The Hill
48% Rasmussen
45% CNBC
46% Harris

Lol clown

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

Lol, you keep giving us approval numbers and Trump has to win MN, MI, WI or PA, he won't have Benghazi Hillary and he won't have Gary Johnson on the ballot. Trump is gonna lose the election,



MN 50-40 Biden
CO 51-47 Biden
MI 51-44 Biden
PA 51-44 Biden
NM 55-45 Biden
AZ 51-46  Biden
WI Plus 5  Biden

Trump isn't gonna crack the 279 Blue wall, give it up

He wins Florida, and PA as I think he will, there goes the election.

[pbrower2a]

At this point, approval and disapproval measures matter far less than do the current match-ups. Trump has had plenty of time in which to improve his image as a leader and has failed. What suggests that he will magically do better in the last one-and-a-half months (roughly fifty days) to win?

The disapproval measures have suggested his current estimates of results in match-ups. Unless disapproval numbers have as their focus events that have become less pressing (which explains why Iowa went from looking like an electoral disaster for during the trade war that hurt farmers a couple years ago to having a Trump edge), disapproval indicates that people have given up on him.  Trump may have his base intact, but that will not be enough. Goldwater and McGovern energized their bases, too.

I see fewer statewide approval and disapproval numbers now -- or perhaps I am not looking as hard now.       

[emailking]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

Please learn what an outlier is.

48% Fox News
47% The Hill
48% Rasmussen
45% CNBC
46% Harris

Lol clown

Does it matter? You said Trump can only get 46% or 47%.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

Please learn what an outlier is.

48% Fox News
47% The Hill
48% Rasmussen
45% CNBC
46% Harris

Lol clown

Does it matter? You said Trump can only get 46% or 47%.

Both could be enough to eek out a EC win, but just 1% more in either direction really shifts things. 45% and below, he will get blown out. 48% or above, and it’s an easy win.

So it’s close. Again, neither candidate is winning in a landslide. It will play out like 2016, I put the race at 50-50. Biden has the edge in current polls, Trump has the edge in underlying political mechanisms.

[emailking]

Guess you're not big on the 538 model then...which seems to be charitable to Trump to be honest but I believe in the methodology so I go with it.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Guess you're not big on the 538 model then...which seems to be charitable to Trump to be honest but I believe in the methodology so I go with it.

What a bunch of hacks.

You tell them they got 2016 wrong and they throw a hissy fit because “that’s not how models work”, they scream. Yet they celebrate when they get it ‘right.’ You can’t have it both ways.

Additionally, they don’t even bother hiding their strong liberal bias - and because the bias isn’t removed, it not only shows up in their written analysis, but also in how they construct their models and statistics.

The guy is so arrogant, he attempts to ‘correct’ and ‘adjust’ polls. Give me a break.

So no, I don’t trust 538 who had H Clinton at 88% chance to win the 2016 election, in mid October 2016 - less than one month from the election. What a joke.

[emailking]

Gotcha.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gotcha.

He doesn't account for the fact 2018 wasn't a Covid 19 environment and unemployment was at 4 percent and the Rs still got blown out by Dems by plus 8 on the Generic ballot. Dems are now leading on a Generic ballot by 8 with 7 percent unemployment, irreguardless if it was 7 percent under Obama. Obama didn't pass a massive tax cut to the wealthy, he raised taxes on people making 500K  a year, that's why Latino and AA voters rewarded him with another term, income inequality

[Del Tachi]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

You're citing one outlier as "recent high approvals." That outlier brought his average up to a low 43% for Trump on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

That said, 43% is certainly a "higher approval" compared to the 40% he had in the depths of COVID + George Floyd protests.

In fact, 43.1% approval (the 538 avg today) is the highest at any point in Trump's presidency (Trump also hit 43.1% on 538 on Sept. 24, 2019)

Record first-term approval less than two months from election day should be the cover story.  Yet, headlining the 538 page today is some speculative click-bait about what would happen if Trump refuses to leave office (how many times have we all read this article before?) 

[Person Man]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

You're citing one outlier as "recent high approvals." That outlier brought his average up to a low 43% for Trump on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

That said, 43% is certainly a "higher approval" compared to the 40% he had in the depths of COVID + George Floyd protests.

In fact, 43.1% approval (the 538 avg today) is the highest at any point in Trump's presidency (Trump also hit 43.1% on 538 on Sept. 24, 2019)

Record first-term approval less than two months from election day should be the cover story.  Yet, headlining the 538 page today is some speculative click-bait about what would happen if Trump refuses to leave office (how many times have we all read this article before?) 

SEP. 9-13
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research   
C+
1,500   LV   0.81   
51%
48%
46%
49%
•   
SEP. 9-11
YouGov   
B
1,577   A   0.34   
41%
51%
42%
53%
•   
SEP. 8-10
Morning Consult   
B/C
1,989   RV   0.06   
41%
56%
40%
57%
•   
SEP. 7-10
Fox News   
A-
1,311   RV   2.08   
48%
51%
46%
51%
•   
SEP. 4-10
Opinium      2,000   A   0.85   
39%
46%
41%
49%

[Brittain33]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

You're citing one outlier as "recent high approvals." That outlier brought his average up to a low 43% for Trump on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

That said, 43% is certainly a "higher approval" compared to the 40% he had in the depths of COVID + George Floyd protests.

In fact, 43.1% approval (the 538 avg today) is the highest at any point in Trump's presidency (Trump also hit 43.1% on 538 on Sept. 24, 2019)

Record first-term approval less than two months from election day should be the cover story.  Yet, headlining the 538 page today is some speculative click-bait about what would happen if Trump refuses to leave office (how many times have we all read this article before?) 

Hmm? 538 showed he was over 45% in March when some people gave him credit for fighting COVID.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

You're citing one outlier as "recent high approvals." That outlier brought his average up to a low 43% for Trump on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

That said, 43% is certainly a "higher approval" compared to the 40% he had in the depths of COVID + George Floyd protests.

In fact, 43.1% approval (the 538 avg today) is the highest at any point in Trump's presidency (Trump also hit 43.1% on 538 on Sept. 24, 2019)

Record first-term approval less than two months from election day should be the cover story.  Yet, headlining the 538 page today is some speculative click-bait about what would happen if Trump refuses to leave office (how many times have we all read this article before?) 

Hmm? 538 showed he was over 45% in March when some people gave him credit for fighting COVID.

I was about to say: I'm sure I'm misreading you, Del Tachi, but Trump has definitely been higher than 43.1% on the 538 aggregate. 

[Del Tachi]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

You're citing one outlier as "recent high approvals." That outlier brought his average up to a low 43% for Trump on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

That said, 43% is certainly a "higher approval" compared to the 40% he had in the depths of COVID + George Floyd protests.

In fact, 43.1% approval (the 538 avg today) is the highest at any point in Trump's presidency (Trump also hit 43.1% on 538 on Sept. 24, 2019)

Record first-term approval less than two months from election day should be the cover story.  Yet, headlining the 538 page today is some speculative click-bait about what would happen if Trump refuses to leave office (how many times have we all read this article before?)  

Hmm? 538 showed he was over 45% in March when some people gave him credit for fighting COVID.

I was thinking mainly in the context of pre-2020 polls, since this year has been so whacky.

Still, it's obvious that (not just for the past few months, but really for the entirety of Trump's presidency) his approvals have been somewhere between flat or a gradual upward trend.

His approvals now are higher than they were at any point in 2017-19, maybe because COVID/BLM doesn't give any room to Mueller/Russia/Ukraine type scandals?

[Brittain33]

Looking at the number, he was often at 41-42% for long periods of time, so 43% is a bit higher, but not by much. It could be anything you mentioned or simply people choosing sides as an election approaches. I think the biggest increase we’re seeing is just him coming out of this summer’s BLM/COVID hole around 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Guess you're not big on the 538 model then...which seems to be charitable to Trump to be honest but I believe in the methodology so I go with it.

What a bunch of hacks.

You tell them they got 2016 wrong and they throw a hissy fit because “that’s not how models work”, they scream. Yet they celebrate when they get it ‘right.’ You can’t have it both ways.

Additionally, they don’t even bother hiding their strong liberal bias - and because the bias isn’t removed, it not only shows up in their written analysis, but also in how they construct their models and statistics.

The guy is so arrogant, he attempts to ‘correct’ and ‘adjust’ polls. Give me a break.

So no, I don’t trust 538 who had H Clinton at 88% chance to win the 2016 election, in mid October 2016 - less than one month from the election. What a joke.

What they basically said after the election: Donald Trump was a long-shot, and long-shots occasionally win. 11-1 chances win about one time in twelve. Some people like betting on such long-shots, and race-track operators offer such bets. Heck, some people bet on 200-1 long-shots.  That is what an 88% chance means.

Polls are snapshots, and they may not reflect reality for long. Events can happen. Maybe this year some prominent pol gets exposed in a picture with him and Jeffrey Epstein... and an underage girl. I'm not saying that such will happen. His chances of getting re-elected suddenly slip from 88% to 8%. Earlier polling would not show that. (Illustration chosen for its blatant qualities and not for likelihood, by the way).

Last time I got a sinking feeling when Donald Trump successfully brought Paula Jones into the debate... a sinking feeling that says, "prepare for the worst four years of your life". I had lost both parents and my life savings (that is how nursing homes operate). I was broke and in grief at the time of the 2016 election. I am no happier. The Trump Presidency is grief in itself.

Make America Great Again? The prospect of spending the rest of my life doing a job that pays minimum wage, has harsh management, and depends that one smile all the time is almost enough to make me want to... 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Today's Trafalgar polls show a tightening of the race, but Trump still not winning. It reaffirms the 291-247 blue wall, that Trump has haulted spending in OH, IA and NV, they aren't in play any longer. FL isn't a must win for Biden. Trump won 305 EC votes; Biden winning AZ, WI, MN, MI and ePA gives him the same amount of EC votes as Trump won in 2016,


But, polls are tightening, OH and IA, Trump isn't concerned about any longer, he will win them

All the approval rating maps showing Trump underwater in all those Red wall states like AK, MT, OH and IA can be taken down.

Trump and Biden are spending ads in AZ, MN, MI, WI and PA, not anymore states

NC and GA can split their votes for Prez and Senate, those aren't must win states for Biden to win at the Prez level

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Today's Trafalgar polls show a tightening of the race, but Trump still not winning. It reaffirms the 291-247 blue wall, that Trump has haulted spending in OH, IA and NV, they aren't in play any longer. FL isn't a must win for Biden. Trump won 305 EC votes; Biden winning AZ, WI, MN, MI and ePA gives him the same amount of EC votes as Trump won in 2016,


But, polls are tightening, OH and IA, Trump isn't concerned about any longer, he will win them

All the approval rating maps showing Trump underwater in all those Red wall states like AK, MT, OH and IA can be taken down.

Trump and Biden are spending ads in AZ, MN, MI, WI and PA, not anymore states

NC and GA can split their votes for Prez and Senate, those aren't must win states for Biden to win at the Prez level

Right. Which affirms that FL and PA are the two most important states in this election. Trump needs to carry both to win. (And he sure as hell needs FL).

[woodley park]

There's always the chance of a shocker result blowing up Trump's electoral map. Texas flipping blue, for example, will render Pennsylvania and Florida entirely irrelevant (not to mention Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio). Clinton states + Texas = 270. Don't laugh off Texas flipping -- it is no more impossible than a bigoted grifter and sexual assaulter winning in the 'nice' Upper Midwest.

[Ferguson97]

There's always the chance of a shocker result blowing up Trump's electoral map. Texas flipping blue, for example, will render Pennsylvania and Florida entirely irrelevant (not to mention Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio). Clinton states + Texas = 270. Don't laugh off Texas flipping -- it is no more impossible than a bigoted grifter winning in the 'nice' Upper Midwest.

It would be hilarious if Biden won Texas and lost Pennsylvania