Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[emailking]

Trump will probably end up close to 50%

That would be a first.

[emailking]

Once the general election really gets going, and Trump starts driving the Democratic nominee's numbers down to Hillary's levels, we are going to see a similar dynamic with the likelihood of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college.

It's not a likelihood. Even last cycle the chance of a popular/electoral split was never more than 10% according to 538.

[emailking]

Once the general election really gets going, and Trump starts driving the Democratic nominee's numbers down to Hillary's levels, we are going to see a similar dynamic with the likelihood of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college.

It's not a likelihood. Even last cycle the chance of a popular/electoral split was never more than 10% according to 538.

What are you expecting to happen? A Trump pv victory by winning the 3rd party vote and Democratic abstention? That’s how Bush and Obama won. The reason Obama struggled was because he lost a lot of crossover vote by being very ambitious because of the recession.

I'm expecting no split. If you tell me Trump wins then I am about 90% confident he wins the popular vote. I don't think he will win though.

[emailking]

Once the general election really gets going, and Trump starts driving the Democratic nominee's numbers down to Hillary's levels, we are going to see a similar dynamic with the likelihood of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college.

It's not a likelihood. Even last cycle the chance of a popular/electoral split was never more than 10% according to 538.

Trump is special.  Rules and precedents that apply to everyone else don't apply to him. Have we not learned this lesson yet since he came down that damned escalator?   

I don't know if you're being serious or not but there's no reason to think Trump is special in this regard. 1 data point does not make a trend.

[emailking]

I hope you guys aren't forgetting about the Trump thing when reporting these numbers.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1216005816710500352

[emailking]

I don't have any problems squaring that. It's like asking whether heart surgery will make you feel good. They see it as a bitter pill.

[emailking]

More details on the Trump thing.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1219332022826606592

[emailking]

So is Silver saying you can add 7% to approval rating as an estimate of what the vote share would be in an election?

I figured Trump was clumsily referring to a shy Trump effect or something.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1222615871073460226

This seems to be pulled out of a hat and says nothing more than add 2 points to his net approval to get his net election day vote.

[emailking]

Trump was pumping it up though, by telling supporters to vote in Iowa, by making a big deal of how he won 97% of the vote in Iowa, by telling supporters again to vote for him in New Hampshire, and finally holding a rally in the state the night before. Past incumbents did nothing like that. They just ignored the primaries entirely after getting on the ballot.

[emailking]

If you look at RCP Trump is slowly becoming more popular. He is now at 46% and it looks like it will slowly go up from there.

He could also go down from here! There are literally two possibilities -- naming one of them doesn't mean it will happen.

You aren't taking into account Newton's First Law of Motion. If Trump has risen to 46%, his momentum will carry him upward to 47%, 48%, and possibly to 49%.

Uggh. I hate when people actually try to apply Newton's Laws outside of physics. Especially Newton's 3rd Law of Motion, which is often described as "For every action there's an equal and opposite reaction." A clever restatement that lends itself to forces and processes outside of physics. A better statement would be that for every force there is an equal and opposite force. And it's not even true! It only works for electrostatics, magnetostatics, and weak gravity.

[emailking]

Yeah I recommended his post.

[emailking]

McCain lost because of Bush. The economic crisis is what made it a rout.

[emailking]

'92 I was barely politically aware, it's the first election where I understood what was happening. 3 candidates didn't seem strange to me at the time, especially when it happened again in '96. 2000 was definitely the most interesting election, at least after election day. I didn't even go to bed that night. We didn't know for a month what was going to happen!

[emailking]

The North will still vote for Biden as they are entitlement states

But Chris Matthews was biased against Biden so that could change things.

[emailking]

That map (with NE-02 for Biden and ME-02 for Trump) is exactly the prediction I entered yesterday.

Which do you think is easier for Biden, NE-02 or ME-02?

[emailking]

Are these polls before or after Trump told his supporters to eat bleach?

[emailking]

Fox News is paying tons of attention to it. Elsewhere, not so much.

[emailking]

Yeah he's not going to get relected.

[emailking]

he has made sexual contact with Reade due to his performance on the Anita Hill confirmation hearings

Normally your posts have a very thin strand connecting all the disparate points, but that makes zero sense.

[emailking]

I don't think anyone actually expects Trump to lose Indiana, though 2008 shows us that crazy things can happen when the floor falls out beneath the economy. That said, if Indiana is close if likely means Trump is done in the broader Midwest.

Indiana '08 shows me that basically anything can happen.

Utah '16 is another example, even though the effective result didn't actually change from what would have been expected.

[emailking]

Trump pumping some strong swing states numbers. That’s all that matters!

If he loses Texas it doesn't.

[emailking]

Hahahahaha he won’t lose Texas! Especially when it comes to law and order. Come on, now. You know this.

Oh my bad.

[emailking]

IBD/TIPP, May 31-June 3, 1233 adults including 964 RV (change from late April)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 51 (+7)

Virus response: Approve 38 (-3), Disapprove 46 (+7)


RV:

Approve 42 (-6)
Disapprove 52 (+6)

Biden 45 (+2), Trump 42 (-1)


This pollster has been pretty good for Trump up to now.

He lost 13 points in a month. dang.

[emailking]

Texas: PPP, June 3-4, 682 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 50

Biden 48, Trump 48

Another poll showing a tossup in TX. If he loses, that's ball game.