Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[woodley park]

Don't look now, but the 538 average now has Trump approval higher than it was exactly one year ago (43.3% vs 41.3%)

I mean... it’s still terrible.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Don't look now, but the 538 average now has Trump approval higher than it was exactly one year ago (43.3% vs 41.3%)

I mean... it’s still terrible.

I feel like this is a great time remind everyone that after the 2016 Republican National Convention, Trump actually took a brief, narrow lead in the national horserace polling. The fact that he hasn't been able to duplicate that this year is very ominous size for his chances.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Don't look now, but the 538 average now has Trump approval higher than it was exactly one year ago (43.3% vs 41.3%)

I mean... it’s still terrible.

I feel like this is a great time remind everyone that after the 2016 Republican National Convention, Trump actually took a brief, narrow lead in the national horserace polling. The fact that he hasn't been able to duplicate that this year is very ominous size for his chances.

Why people compare those type of numbers between elections? It doesn’t make any sense, as you’ve stripped both from their contexts. And their contexts don’t even compare.

Each election stands on its own as far as polling etc goes. You’re making way too many suppositions.

[woodley park]

Don't look now, but the 538 average now has Trump approval higher than it was exactly one year ago (43.3% vs 41.3%)

I mean... it’s still terrible.

I feel like this is a great time remind everyone that after the 2016 Republican National Convention, Trump actually took a brief, narrow lead in the national horserace polling. The fact that he hasn't been able to duplicate that this year is very ominous size for his chances.

Why people compare those type of numbers between elections? It doesn’t make any sense, as you’ve stripped both from their contexts. And their contexts don’t even compare.

Each election stands on its own as far as polling etc goes. You’re making way too many suppositions.

I think it is more than a fair statement to say that it is ominous for Trump that he has never led Biden in this election and that even during 2016, when he was also unpopular, he still managed to pull ahead at times.

[emailking]

Yeah I think it's pretty reasonable to compare 2 elections that have a candidate in common. No one is saying this necessarily means Trump will lose.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, Aug. 29-Sep. 1, 1033 RV (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Biden 49 (+1), Trump 41 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 30-Sep. 1, 1500 adults including 1209 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongy disapprove 42 (+3)


RV:

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongy disapprove 47 (+4)

Biden 51 (+1), Trump 40 (-1)

GCB: D 51 (+4), R 38 (-1)

[Person Man]

IBD/TIPP, Aug. 29-Sep. 1, 1033 RV (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Biden 49 (+1), Trump 41 (nc)

Looks like the "Ehhhh... he ain't that bad" period might be coming to an end. But in the major aggregates, he's still in that 42-44 zone.  

With me thinking anything above 45-46% being "he's really grown on me. I kinda like him" and anything below 38-39% being "we're ready for a Democrat no matter what Fox says".

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

You know polls are wrong with the 10 point spread of 39% to 49%. Although the 39 is most certainly an outlier.

Don’t know how much the polls are off, but the huge spread two months before the election indicates that they are.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Aug. 28-Sep. 1, 1335 adults including 1089 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)

Biden 43 (-1), Trump 38 (+1)


RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

Biden 47 (nc), Trump 40 (nc)

[pbrower2a]

39, 41, and 42 approval... the difference is slight. Any one of these is execrable. Trump needed to be at 42% approval ten months ago (that is, a year before the election) to have so much as a 25% chance of winning. I would guess that he needs at least 45% approval to have a chance if everything goes right for him, and the only thing that will go right for him will be that Democrats can run up the vote totals in a few medium-to-giant states (especially California, Illinois, and New York) and get a decisive plurality of the popular vote nationwide and break less-than-even in the Electoral College.

Disapproval at 54 or 55 means that Trump will need to convince people now against him to change their minds. That will be a tougher sell than getting me, who knows the rules of probability, to play craps in a casino. (Craps is an honest game unless someone introduces "Chicago dice" as "Big Julie" did in Guys and Dolls, but the house has an edge and slowly but inevitably cleans out the gamblers of they play long enough).

Polling is remarkably stable, and the bounces between Parties following their conventions seem to have been adequate for Biden but not for Trump.

     

[pbrower2a]

I am ready to redo my seat-of-the-pants estimates of Biden and Trump chances based on match-ups alone.  I would need to do some interpolations, and at this I take the dangers of interpolation (much less dangerous than interpolation. Obviously 50-50 is 50% for both.

State data is from here:


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-donald-trump-opinion-poll-08-16-2020/

August 10.


three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|

lead  likelihood

0   50    10  87
1   55    11  88
2   59    12  89
3   64    13  90
4   69    14  91
5   72    15  92
6   76    16  93
7   80    17  94
8   83    18  95
9   85    19  96

The interpolation is nearly linear, and that may be inadequate for small leads. This model suggests that even a 3-point edge for Biden at this point (late August) is far from trivial.

Here is a map of the probabilities of a Biden win based upon the edge that one or the other has. Numbers are not electoral votes this time: Data is from August 10, so convention bumps do not appear:

 

Biden likelihood 0 to 9 (saturation 8 )
Biden likelihood 10 to 19 (saturation 6)
Biden likelihood 20 to 29 (saturation 4)
Biden likelihood 30 to 39 (saturation 4)
Biden likelihood 41 to 49 (saturation 2)
white  -- tie, exactly even

Biden likelihood 51 to 59 (saturation 2)
Biden likelihood 60 to 69 (saturation 4)
Biden likelihood 70 to 79 (saturation 5)
Biden likelihood 80 to 89 (saturation 6)
Biden likelihood 90 or higher (saturation 8 )

It is already two weeks obsolete, because the numbers are based on Senators winning elections based upon their leads at three months (I have done linear interpolation). This is also the last polling data that both

(1) comes from all 50 states,
(2) from the same time, and
(3) from the same source.  

Senatorial and gubernatorial elections for statewide contests for electoral votes by Presidential campaigns. This may be far from a perfect model. Biden has an 80% chance of winning Wisconsin, which this map shows as the most likely tipping-point state. He also has a 69% chance of winning North Carolina and Florida (each), a 64% chance of winning Arizona, a 50% chance of winning Ohio, and a 41% chance of winning Texas .  These six states are dissimilar enough that they could as well be considered independent events. Trump has about seven chances in 1000 to win all six states in question. (I am not considering Iowa, as Biden is not winning Iowa while losing Wisconsin).

At this point, Biden is trying to consolidate the states that he needs or might need. Trump is trying to keep his hope alive in states in which he has as little as a 20% chance of winning.

Another way of putting it: Trump has about as much chance of winning Wisconsin as he does of losing Kansas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another way of putting it: Trump has about as much chance of winning Wisconsin as Biden does of losing Kansas.

This does not compute.  You are saying that Trump's chances in Wisconsin and Kansas are the same.

[pbrower2a]

Another way of putting it: Trump has about as much chance of winning Wisconsin as Biden hedoes of losing Kansas.

This does not compute.  You are saying that Trump's chances in Wisconsin and Kansas are the same.

Correction noted and made.

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen REALLY cooking the books for Trump this week

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1301877595546554370

[Sir Mohamed]

Rasmussen REALLY cooking the books for Trump this week

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1301877595546554370

Trump Tweet incoming: * THANK YOU, Rassmussen, WORKING HARD! *

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver has an interesting Twitter conversation going that makes the point that *IF* there is a component of shy Trump voters (something many people believe, but for which there is no solid evidence) then including R-leaning polls like Rasmussen and Trafalgar in polling averages would mitigate any bias caused by that effect.

[emailking]

Unless they're more Trump friendly because they're capturing the shy trump effect, then that's just a coincidence. They should be included but all polls should be weighted according to their track record.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to see polls showing Trump tied or taking the lead, but I have stopped donating to Ds, since they endorsed Markey over JK 3 and Pelosi have not passed the Stimulus Bill. All bets are off, if no stimulus package is passed.

[GP270watch]

We need to see polls showing Trump tied or taking the lead, but I have stopped donating to Ds, since they endorsed Markey over JK 3 and Pelosi have not passed the Stimulus Bill. All bets are off, if no stimulus package is passed.

 The Democrats passed a stimulus bill months ago and people know this.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

It’s almost like elections tighten as they near. Told you so (yet again).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s almost like elections tighten as they near. Told you so (yet again).

If Trump has it so tight, he hasn't lead in a single poll and has lost every 278 state poll out there when it comes to MN, MI, PA and WI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need to see polls showing Trump tied or taking the lead, but I have stopped donating to Ds, since they endorsed Markey over JK 3 and Pelosi have not passed the Stimulus Bill. All bets are off, if no stimulus package is passed.

 The Democrats passed a stimulus bill months ago and people know this.

Even when Biden gets in, there isn't gonna be any 2nd year unemployment. McConnell is gonna let the stimulus package die, with no one getting anything.

[emailking]

It's tightened by like 0.2 points since before the conventions.

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs - thru 9/2

National: 41/56 (-15)

Alaska: 43/55 (-12)
Arizona: 43/53 (-10)
Colorado: 38/59 (-22)
Florida: 45/53 (-8)
Georgia: 44/53 (-9)
Iowa: 46/52 (-6)
Kansas: 52/45 (+7)
Maine: 37/60 (-23)
Michigan: 41/56 (-15)
Minnesota: 39/58 (-19)
Montana: 47/50 (-3)
Nevada: 36/60 (-24)
New Hampshire: 37/58 (-21)
New Mexico: 43/54 (-11)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Pennsylvania: 42/55 (-13)
South Carolina: 50/48 (+2)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 38/59 (-21)
Wisconsin: 43/54 (-11)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true