Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

Just preparing for the witching hour on "1.5". So far I am putting in some utilities. Most obviously, here is a blank map for general use:

Without electoral votes and with no distinction for districts:

Please don't post here yet. "1.5" is still alive.


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The fundamental beginning of the 2020 Presidential campaign -- states and districts within 10% of being even in the 2016 Presidential election:


2016 result among states decided by 10% or less:

8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
1.5% to 2.99% -- saturation 3
under 1.5% -- saturation 2

States in gray look too far away to be affected by a shift in votes from 2016 to polling in 2018. Should any such state go into play, then differences between 2016 and 2020 ar profound in the extreme. This range of states is between 203 and 413 electoral votes for a Democrat (and 125 and 335 for Trump). Assuming that no state that Trump lost by 10% or more in 2016 will vote for him in 2020, President Trump has at most a chance for being re-elected much like Obama in 2012 -- but he can lose as badly as GHWB did in 1992.

Remember that if such a state as Oregon goes into play for Trump, then the Democrat is in supreme trouble and at risk of losing a landslide. On the other side, if a state such as Missouri goes into play, then Trump is at risk of a landslide loss. Because there is no distinction between winning with 270 and 335 (or 413, or even 538 electoral votes)... the significance of a landslide win or loss is coattails in Congress

This is still relevant 40 months after the 2016 election and 8 months before the 2020 election.  

..................................................

Furthermore, the electoral histories of the states are relevant over the last five Presidential elections. All but the 2008 election were close, and I am not going to show anything before 2000 because several states that used to be reliably D in their voting are quite the opposite now.

How states have voted from 2000 on:

all 5 for the Republican
4 R, 1 D
3 R, 2D  
3 D, 2 R
4 D, 1 R
all five for the Democrat

If there is to be any show of any swing to 2016, then it is from 2000 if it is to show any change in state's electoral habits. The 2016 election is more similar to that of 2000 than to any other and thus more comparable in that

(1) both involved open seats
(2) both followed a Democrat who had won decisive majorities in the electoral vote in the two prior elections
(3) both had the winner of the plurality of the popular vote losing the electoral vote
(4) neither election was a decisive mandate for change although the inner so interpreted the election as such
(5) both Dubya and Trump promised peace and prosperity with a basis in pro-business solutions above all else
(6) both Dubya and Trump had rather thin experience in electoral politics (Trump had been Governor of Texas, but that is a largely ceremonial task; Trump had no experience in electoral politics)
(7) both Dubya and Trump were derided in elite-to-mass media as ignorant buffoons.
( neither Dubya nor Trump had much margin for losing electoral support from their first Presidential election and winning the second time.

This is not to say that 2020 will be analogous to 2004.  An economic meltdown like that of 2008 could make 2008 or even 1932 more relevant. I can think of results analogous to 2008 for the 2020 election, but not 1932 (or 1980); such would unfold before us in unpredictable ways.  

..................................................

  
Flips based on 2000-2016 by margin:

(**favorite son as nominee in 2000. No asterisk for 2016 because both nominees were from New York
* state 'flipped" from 2000 to 2016)

swing 10% or more 80% saturation
swing 5-9.9% 60% saturation
swing 2-4.9% 40% saturation
swing under 2% 20% saturation

Utah -- a third-party nominee finished in second place above the Democrat in 2016, so I show this in green with no other significance.  

Ignore districts of Maine and Nebraska, as I have inadequate data on those.

color shows the direction of the swing of the margin -- red to the Democrat, blue to the Republican


You are welcome to draw whatever conclusions you wish. Except that tiny swings from 2000 to 2016 were enough to swing Wisconsin and Nebraska, swings that flipped the other states (CO, IA, MI, PA, VA) were much larger than necessary. It's obvious that except for Mississippi (which seems to vote close to an ethnic divide), the good old days for Democrats in the Mountain and Deep South (and this includes Missouri) from the New Deal to the 1990's are much in the past. Otherwise, Democrats seem to be doing better in the western US but decidedly worse (except for Illinois) in the Rust Belt.  You are also welcome to draw conclusions of applicability to 2020.  

I may not be accurate, and I would not pay much attention to small swings unless you want to make your changes.

----------------------------------------

Repeated verbatim from "1.5", as it has not really changed:

Assumptions that we can all reasonably make, lest everything be void:

1. That Donald Trump will be the nominee for President -- that he will not decide not to run, that he will not die in office, and that he will not removed for diminished capacity (as after entering an irreversible coma).

2. That we will not have a military coup. Sure, we have never had one. But Seven Days in May is becoming much more plausible with this President, if for very different reasons. Doddering old leader? Check. Highly unpopular leader? Check. "Too liberal"? The opposite. "Too squeamish about taking harsh measures"? Exactly the opposite.

I would not rule out that the military would turn on him rather than soil itself in aggressive war against Iran or Venezuela. Yes, the military has not intervened in the government at any time  in American history, and 240 years of civilian control of the military will come to an end only under exceptional circumstances.

So imagine that you are a four-star general and you must choose between overthrowing Donald Trump or becoming complicit in war crimes. You don't know what you would do? Even I can't speak for myself.

3. That the elections of 2020 will not be rigged. The 2018 Congressional, Senatorial, and Gubernatorial elections looked clean enough.

4. That the Democrat will not be exposed in having done something discreditable -- insider trading, having sex with minors, being involved in a business failure the result of malfeasance, having a dishonorable discharge from the military, or having a criminal record. That is clearly in the category of 'unforeseen events'  that have nothing to do with polling.

5. That we can derive any conclusions from polling. By November 2010 we could see Obama within easy reach of winning re-election even if his Party was severely defeated in the midterm election -- it would take a spirited campaign by him and competent strategy as a candidate to turn approval in the 45-47% range into either a bare majority or even a plurality. It is a reasonable assumption that a spirited campaign and good campaign strategy were good for turning something like 45% approval into 51% of the vote. Obama ran a competent enough campaign with which to win despite a disapproval rating in the mid 40s around September 1 (just after the Republican national convention, I guess).  44% + 7% = 51%, so it looks as if he did what he needed.  

I look at recent polling numbers for Donald Trump, and he will be lucky to get 46% of the popular vote. Sure, he won with 46% of the popular vote because Hillary Clinton ran up the vote totals in places like California and New York -- but just look at the polling for Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Those look really bad. The poll of Pennsylvania had Trump disapproval in the mid-fifties.

That disapproval of a nominee is in the 50s may not assure that that nominee will lose 54-46 to the opponent. Maybe it will be more like 49-46-5, which only looks sort of close.

6. That Democrats will not be facing a strong left-wing alternative that guts their support. This is the most likely thing to go wrong for the Democratic nominee for President. I cannot yet rule it out.

7. That there will be no event that changes American political culture by identifying the President with some rush of patriotism or a movement toward a right-wing 'religious revival' to the benefit of 'conservative' politics.  I see nothing of the sort. Today's young adults are seemingly abandoning religion.    

But I can't completely rule out such things as an invasion from outer space, an eruption of a supervolcano or meteor strike that does great damage to human populations, a zombie apocalypse, or the Coming of a Messiah, either.  Any of these makes the Presidential election an irrelevant concern. Were I to get a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer with a prognosis of three months to live, I would be finding better things to do with my life than posting here.

Voter participation:

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump is deeper underwater in IA than VA? Weird. The trade war?

It could be that Donald Trump has gotten the recognition that he is an arrogant, abrasive city-slicker.

It's the trade war. Rule number one of Iowa Presidential politics: you mess with their farms, they will punish you. Rule number two: see rule number one.

[pbrower2a]

Crayons out for Morning Consult.

90% shades -- 20% or more either way
70% shades 10-19%
50% shades-- 5-9%
20% shades -- under 5%
...white would be for ties (but there are none).

Is any comment necessary here?

[forgotten manatee]

Crayons out for Morning Consult.

90% shades -- 20% or more either way
70% shades 10-19%
50% shades-- 5-9%
20% shades -- under 5%
...white would be for ties (but there are none).

Is any comment necessary here?

Is this based simply on approval numbers, with a state going against Trump if he has a higher disapproval rating than approval rating?

What if we moved the goal posts a bit, in Trump's favor, and only turned states against him if either of the following were true:

a.) His approval rating was at 42% or below
b.) His disapproval rating was 60% or higher

Would he still get re-elected?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crayons out for Morning Consult.

90% shades -- 20% or more either way
70% shades 10-19%
50% shades-- 5-9%
20% shades -- under 5%
...white would be for ties (but there are none).

Is any comment necessary here?

Is this based simply on approval numbers, with a state going against Trump if he has a higher disapproval rating than approval rating?

What if we moved the goal posts a bit, in Trump's favor, and only turned states against him if either of the following were true:

a.) His approval rating was at 42% or below
b.) His disapproval rating was 60% or higher

Would he still get re-elected?

If (b) is true, (a) must be true as well.

[forgotten manatee]

Crayons out for Morning Consult.

90% shades -- 20% or more either way
70% shades 10-19%
50% shades-- 5-9%
20% shades -- under 5%
...white would be for ties (but there are none).

Is any comment necessary here?

Is this based simply on approval numbers, with a state going against Trump if he has a higher disapproval rating than approval rating?

What if we moved the goal posts a bit, in Trump's favor, and only turned states against him if either of the following were true:

a.) His approval rating was at 42% or below
b.) His disapproval rating was 60% or higher

Would he still get re-elected?

If (b) is true, (a) must be true as well.

Fair point. What if we just used point a? By my counts, Trump would win, 286-252, with Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine flipping back. Obviously Trump is weaker than MC polling indicates in Virginia, so if the latest election there is any indicator, he will lose it badly, making him skate by with just 273 EVs. It looks like it would come down to Pennsylvania, where he has also held up well in MC polling.

If Trump survives impeachment and gets re-elected with just 273 EVs, amidst an even worse rout in the popular vote, it is going to put severe strain on the credibility of our electoral system.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Crayons out for Morning Consult.

90% shades -- 20% or more either way
70% shades 10-19%
50% shades-- 5-9%
20% shades -- under 5%
...white would be for ties (but there are none).

Is any comment necessary here?

Is this based simply on approval numbers, with a state going against Trump if he has a higher disapproval rating than approval rating?

What if we moved the goal posts a bit, in Trump's favor, and only turned states against him if either of the following were true:

a.) His approval rating was at 42% or below
b.) His disapproval rating was 60% or higher

Would he still get re-elected?

If (b) is true, (a) must be true as well.

Fair point. What if we just used point a? By my counts, Trump would win, 286-252, with Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine flipping back. Obviously Trump is weaker than MC polling indicates in Virginia, so if the latest election there is any indicator, he will lose it badly, making him skate by with just 273 EVs. It looks like it would come down to Pennsylvania, where he has also held up well in MC polling.

If Trump survives impeachment and gets re-elected with just 273 EVs, amidst an even worse rout in the popular vote, it is going to put severe strain on the credibility of our electoral system.

I just don't see a path to Trump winning the popular vote. In fact, I think it's likely (75% chance) the Democrats get a popular majority. However... Trump's victory in 2016 was based on people who didn't like him voting for him, and if he gets an electoral win in 2020, it will be for the same reason. This time rather than "but her emails," it will be "but muh economy."

[pbrower2a]

Crayons out for Morning Consult.

90% shades -- 20% or more either way
70% shades 10-19%
50% shades-- 5-9%
20% shades -- under 5%
...white would be for ties (but there are none).

Is any comment necessary here?

Is this based simply on approval numbers, with a state going against Trump if he has a higher disapproval rating than approval rating?

What if we moved the goal posts a bit, in Trump's favor, and only turned states against him if either of the following were true:

a.) His approval rating was at 42% or below
b.) His disapproval rating was 60% or higher

Would he still get re-elected?

I do not understand the methodology of Morning Consult. I can say this:

Figuring that winning the Presidency is basically fifty statewide elections (analogous to gubernatorial or Senatorial elections), five Congressional elections (districts of Maine and Nebraska) and one city-wide election (Dee Cee), and that Nate Silver's classic analysis in The Myth of 50%...

an incumbent Governor or Senator has about a 50% chance of winning the statewide election if his early support (approval rating is the best proxy that I have for most states) is at 43.5%. Go above 43.5%, and to the extent that one is above 43.5%, the chance of re-election approaches 100% quite rapidly. Go below 43.5%, and the chance of re-election for an incumbent drops rapidly to near zero. The typical elected incumbent got elected with a competent and spirited campaign, and against the usual challenger, the average result of a competent and spirited campaign is to add about 6.5% to early support to get the vote share in the subsequent election. (This ignores third parties and such write-in luminaries as "Mickey Mouse", "Jesus Christ", "Santa Claus", and "Darth Vader").

This applies in close elections and wave elections. A blatant exception to this pattern was Senator George Allen (R-VA), who started with about 50% support  -- but faced an unusually-strong opponent and rapidly-deteriorating reality for his Party.... and he had some unfortunate incidents while campaigning. On the other side, there is little data for incumbents whose support is 35% or lower. Most see themselves with no chance of winning and choose not to run. 

Disapproval is another critter altogether, expressing the idea that people have simply given up on the pol. Those in the undecided category can go either way, and those who approve are set to vote for the pol.    Campaigning in practice works to convince the undecided that re-election is a good idea.

In my experience, the undecided vote usually tends to go ineffectively toward the eventual loser.  So suppose that in a state split perhaps 45-10-45 left-right-moderate. Using a hypothetical election (2012 with Obama approval at 40%)... his disapproval rating is 52%.
 
Note that Presidential approval is lower than the level of people on the ideological Left. But those who already disapprove  are enough to give his opponent 52% of the undecided vote before the undecided vote is split.

So 7% of the undecided to to Obama and 1% go to the challenger. Obama ends up losing in 2012 much as he won in 2008.

 (Reality was that Obama typically had  about 47% early support with the Republican getting about 40%. Obama ended up with 52% of the vote).

If I have a favorite proxy before statewide matchups appear, then it is 100-disapproval, a ceiling for the pol. Trump is not going to win any state in which his disapproval is at 52% or higher. Nationwide? Sure. I see 52% disapproval as the threhold of sure defeat. 
 a
     

[pbrower2a]

Georgia, Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Do you approve or disapprove of the impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump?

1. Approve – 54%

2. Disapprove – 44%

3. Don’t know; refused to answer – 2%

Based on what you know at this point, do you think that Donald Trump should or should not be impeached and removed from office?

1. Should be impeached and removed – 47%

2. Should not be impeached and removed – 47%

3. Don’t know; refused to answer – 6%

Note: The survey was conducted by telephone, with 70% of calls made to cellphones and 30% to traditional landlines. The data are weighted based on race, age and sex to accurately reflect the demographics of the state. Some totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-georgians-support-impeachment-inquiry-split-trump-ouster/grQAEPhAanEgDiSYfqsAaL/

There will be a poll out tomorrow on approval and disapproval of the President. It's been a while since I have seen a one-state poll about Georgia. Most approval ratings of the President in Georgia have looked hideous for the president.

[Person Man]

Georgia, Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Do you approve or disapprove of the impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump?

1. Approve – 54%

2. Disapprove – 44%

3. Don’t know; refused to answer – 2%

Based on what you know at this point, do you think that Donald Trump should or should not be impeached and removed from office?

1. Should be impeached and removed – 47%

2. Should not be impeached and removed – 47%

3. Don’t know; refused to answer – 6%

Note: The survey was conducted by telephone, with 70% of calls made to cellphones and 30% to traditional landlines. The data are weighted based on race, age and sex to accurately reflect the demographics of the state. Some totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-georgians-support-impeachment-inquiry-split-trump-ouster/grQAEPhAanEgDiSYfqsAaL/

There will be a poll out tomorrow on approval and disapproval of the President. It's been a while since I have seen a one-state poll about Georgia. Most approval ratings of the President in Georgia have looked hideous for the president.

I imagine it’s about 44%.

[pbrower2a]

As a rule I do not predict polling results except to expect more of the same. I am at least as much concerned with disapproval as with approval.

Now how important are leads with time? Close to Election Day, electoral leads of even 1% can give the leader nearly 2/3 of a chance of winning the state. Leads that may not look 'that bad' for the nominee behind in polling can go from troubling to ominous to politically lethal over a year even if the lead remains the same.

  I just got my hands on Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise (why so many predictions but some don't)It relates probability well, and as I have suggested, being up 5% in a binary election a year before means little, being up 5% a month before the election is huge. It is from 2012, and it relates much other than elections (like sports, poker, and even chess). What it says of electoral leads as a campaign approaches its conclusion is telling.

On page 63, Figure 2-4 shows the probability of a Senate candidate winning (1998 to 2008) with a certain lead (1, 5, 10, and 20 points) at one year, six months, three months, one month, one week, and one day. Because statewide races for President are much like statewide races for the Senate -- with the qualification that Presidential nominees do not usually make appearances where they see themselves losing -- unless they really are losing nationwide.

Time to election  |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|

(I am going to put this back in my "electoral theory" section because it will remain relevant.

So what conclusions can I draw? You might be surprised that a five-point lead one month before Election Day is no less significant than a twenty-point lead one year before the election. Thus one hears things like Democrats saying "We have a chance of winning West Virginia if everything goes right" and Republicans say that they have a chance of winning Massachusetts... yadda, yadda, yadda. Or is it "Yabba, dabba, doo!" Likewise, being one point ahead on the day before the election is worth almost as much as being five points ahead six months before the election or even ten points ahead  a year before the election.

Polling can be surprisingly stable. But a 5% lead that doesn't mean much in November 2019 (59%, which is insignificant in difference between winning and losing, as there is plenty of time to catch up and plenty of time for events to unfold) is decisive (95% chance of winning) on Election Day in 2020. Electoral results are not so random as they might seem. 

OK, we all thought in November 2019 that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee unless the Grim Reaper took him away from us, but how many  of us could have predicted that Joe Biden would be the Presidential nominee? Many liberals were looking for grounds on which to impeach the President, but nobody predicted what those grounds would be, and what the consequences would be upon the 2020 election even if Trump got away with some impeachable behavior. Above all, who would have predicted  that this fellow



would be the big event in American politics in 2020.

OK. Politicians cannot change direction on a dime. A leader who loses does acts of unpredictable incompetence or gets tripped up in a scandal. Senators may not be as likely to get the blame for military debacles and blunders of foreign policy -- but the President does. Positive events such as military victories and improvements in economic statistics are less swift to change perceptions than are bad events.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 1-5, 1500 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Impeach Trump?

Yes 52 (nc)
No 41 (-2)

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has abused his power at any point as president?

Yes 62
No 33

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime at any point as president?

Yes 54
No 38

[Dr. Arch]

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 1-5, 1500 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Impeach Trump?

Yes 52 (nc)
No 41 (-2)

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has abused his power at any point as president?

Yes 62
No 33

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime at any point as president?

Yes 54
No 38

I would like to have words with those people who think Trump has committed a crime as a president and don't want him impeached.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 1-5, 1500 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Impeach Trump?

Yes 52 (nc)
No 41 (-2)

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has abused his power at any point as president?

Yes 62
No 33

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime at any point as president?

Yes 54
No 38

I would like to have words with those people who think Trump has committed a crime as a president and don't want him impeached.

I'd bet it would go something like: "yeah, he committed crimes as a President, but it's too close to election season.  Let's vote him out at the ballot box." 

[Dr. Arch]

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 1-5, 1500 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Impeach Trump?

Yes 52 (nc)
No 41 (-2)

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has abused his power at any point as president?

Yes 62
No 33

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime at any point as president?

Yes 54
No 38

I would like to have words with those people who think Trump has committed a crime as a president and don't want him impeached.

I'd bet it would go something like: "yeah, he committed crimes as a President, but it's too close to election season.  Let's vote him out at the ballot box." 

That's so terrible, but it wouldn't surprise me at all.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 1-5, 1500 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Impeach Trump?

Yes 52 (nc)
No 41 (-2)

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has abused his power at any point as president?

Yes 62
No 33

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime at any point as president?

Yes 54
No 38

I would like to have words with those people who think Trump has committed a crime as a president and don't want him impeached.

I'd bet it would go something like: "yeah, he committed crimes as a President, but it's too close to election season.  Let's vote him out at the ballot box." 

That's so terrible, but it wouldn't surprise me at all.

It reminds me a lot of the excuse about how Trump is too incompetent to commit crimes. In particular, Lindsey Graham's defense of Trump's Ukraine policy being so "incoherent" that he couldn't have possible done something unethical.

So yeah, that's comforting: Trump is a criminal and is completely incompetent at being President, or at anything really, but should still be given the opportunity to be re-elected. What a farce.

[riceowl]

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 1-5, 1500 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Impeach Trump?

Yes 52 (nc)
No 41 (-2)

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has abused his power at any point as president?

Yes 62
No 33

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime at any point as president?

Yes 54
No 38

I would like to have words with those people who think Trump has committed a crime as a president and don't want him impeached.

"We weren't electing a priest!"

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 1-5, 1500 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Impeach Trump?

Yes 52 (nc)
No 41 (-2)

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has abused his power at any point as president?

Yes 62
No 33

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime at any point as president?

Yes 54
No 38

I would like to have words with those people who think Trump has committed a crime as a president and don't want him impeached.

"We weren't electing a priest!"

At some point the realization has to sink in that conservative causes are better represented under President Pence.

Also at some point Pence will come out of the closet as President-in-Waiting, which he has been since he agreed to be Trump's running mate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Nov. 10-12, 1500 adults including 1206 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)

Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 41 (nc)

Impeach? Yes 45 (-1), No 39 (nc)

Remove? Yes 45 (-1), No 39 (-1)


RV:

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 30 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 41 (nc)

Impeach? Yes 49 (nc), No 43 (nc)

Remove? Yes 49 (-1), No 43 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 49 (+2), R 40 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Nov. 8-10, 1993 RV (1-week change, some questions not asked last week)

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 28
Probably vote for Trump 9
Probably someone else 6
Definitely someone else 48

GCB: D 45, R 37

Impeachment inquiry: Support 50 (+1), Oppose 42 (-1)

Impeach Trump: Support 49 (+2), Oppose 41 (-2)

Remove Trump: Support 48 (+1), Oppose 42 (nc)

[pbrower2a]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Georgia.

45% approve, 54% disapprove.

https://ajc-isabetai.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/poll-nov-2019-crosstabs.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Georgia.

45% approve, 54% disapprove.

https://ajc-isabetai.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/poll-nov-2019-crosstabs.pdf

Note that this poll shows 61% college grads, which is ridiculously high.

[pbrower2a]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Georgia, as promised.

45% approve, 54% disapprove.

https://ajc-isabetai.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/poll-nov-2019-crosstabs.pdf
[/quote]

Trump re-election bid, 2020: dead in the water with a swarm of tiger sharks circling.

He's not winning Georgia with these approval ratings. No Democratic nominee for President has won Georgia since 1992.  

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Kyng]

That sample voted Clinton +1.6, so it's probably too D-friendly.

Still, it's not a *good* poll for Trump, by any means...

[Badger]

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 1-5, 1500 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Impeach Trump?

Yes 52 (nc)
No 41 (-2)

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has abused his power at any point as president?

Yes 62
No 33

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime at any point as president?

Yes 54
No 38

I would like to have words with those people who think Trump has committed a crime as a president and don't want him impeached.

I'd bet it would go something like: "yeah, he committed crimes as a President, but it's too close to election season.  Let's vote him out at the ballot box." 

That's so terrible, but it wouldn't surprise me at all.

Could it be Trump opponents who are worried about President Pence, especially if it gives that theocrat the chance to play National reconciliate ER for a few months and squeak out election win where Trump is probably doomed? That's honestly not far off from where I felt even a few months ago, but I believe that the country is so endangered that it is worth putting Prince at least temporarily in office, and even whatever election bump might give with"starting anew", etc.