Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[woodley park]

Civiqs Trump Tracker (4/23)
Overall: 43/54 (-11)

Arizona: 43/55 (-12)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 46/52 (-6)
Georgia: 45/51 (-6)
Iowa: 48/50 (-2)
Michigan: 44/53 (-9)
Minnesota: 44/53 (-9)
Montana: 48/50 (-2)
Nevada: 38/59 (-21)
New Hampshire: 39/56 (-17)
New Mexico: 45/52 (-7)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Ohio: 49/48 (+1)
Pennsylvania: 44/53 (-9)
South Carolina: 51/46 (+5)
Texas: 50/47 (+3)
Virginia: 40/58 (-18)
Wisconsin: 46/52 (-6)


Interesting #s - especially Montana and SC.

Looks like Ohio and Wisconsin are lagging behind the rest of the Rust Belt states in souring on Trump. Not too surprising I guess.

[woodley park]

Senate: Ernst 43, Greenfield 42

This is the most competitive I've seen this senate election. I thought Ernst was winning easily...

Why this forum seems to think IA Senate is Safe R is beyond my understanding.

[woodley park]

Call me crazy, but I fully expect further erosion in Trump's poll numbers because of his Obamagate push. Its just in incredibly poor taste to throw that out there in the midst of the pandemic. I don't see how hyping up Obamagate as the death toll start starts pushing 100,000 is going to help Trump with the seniors he'll need to win in less than 6 months.

[woodley park]

Call me crazy, but I fully expect further erosion in Trump's poll numbers because of his Obamagate push. Its just in incredibly poor taste to throw that out there in the midst of the pandemic. I don't see how hyping up Obamagate as the death toll start starts pushing 100,000 is going to help Trump with the seniors he'll need to win in less than 6 months.

We'll see. Somehow it is the dumbest fabricated conspiracy he's attempted to will into existence yet as a way of denigrating his opponents. At least going after Hunter Biden and the Tara Reade allegation had some basis in reality. "Obamagate" is simply as idiotic as it is incomprehensible and vague.

Americans have shown that they are willing to tolerate all sorts of idiocy when things are humming along. But they by and large barely showed tolerance for this type of behavior when things were going well (given his consistently unpopularity), so I can’t imagine it’s going to hold up well in this new context.

Also, olawakandi, pick a theory and stick to it please!

[woodley park]

At what point we do start talking about a paradigm shift, in which Trump has passed the point of no return with alienated senior citizen voters?

Senior citizens are probably amongst the most likely to support continued shutdowns, because they're the most at risk if COVID persists. We've seen that Trump's polling with seniors has taken a beating once he began prominent calls for a hasty re-opening. All of a sudden he's on precarious ground in places like Florida, Arizona, and Georgia, where there are a lot of snowbirds. Without seniors, Trump can't win re-election. Period. His paunchy, pasty, neckbeard, low IQ fanatic base isn't enough to save him if the elderly switch to Biden.

I'm now looking at all of Trump's actions through the lens of a senior citizen voter, rather than through some random Midwestern 'swing voter'. Doing so makes me suspect that his refusal to wear a mask, his comments on refusing to shut down for a second wave, and his attacks on Democrats for wanting to stay closed are actually going to further erode his own support, rather than shore up his base against the Democrats, because it is going to continue alienating senior citizens. I see idiot pundits like Chris Cillizza and Jeff Harris going blue in the face talking about the "trap" that pro-shutdown people have placed themselves in, because it allows Trump to claim the "pro-jobs" mantle. But I think there's a real shift happening, and Trump is shooting himself in the foot.

[woodley park]

I wonder how much longer is it going to take for Trump's approval rating to crash back below 40%.

[woodley park]

And now the administration will not be releasing economic projections, in order to stem further erosion in his support on the economy. How much longer until the integrity of the monthly jobs report is also compromised? Who here really expects Trump is OK with a monthly report showing Great Depression-era unemployment regularly peppering his re-election campaign? Even if such reports continue to get issued, I'd bet a fafillion dollars that Trump is trying to corrupt the report behind the scenes.

[woodley park]

I don't think anyone actually expects Trump to lose Indiana, though 2008 shows us that crazy things can happen when the floor falls out beneath the economy. That said, if Indiana is close if likely means Trump is done in the broader Midwest.

[woodley park]

ABC News/Washington Post-

Approve: 45% (-3)
Disapprove: 53% (+7)

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/abc-news-coronavirus-poll

This forum would make you believe Trump's approval rating would be 21%.

It honestly should be. He's an objectively terrible president, but the Republican Party is 100% behind him.

Exactly. That Trump’s approval ratings hasn’t crashed below 40% yet shows how broken American democracy is.

[woodley park]

https://twitter.com/demfromct/status/1267431441442488322?s=21

Remember when Ronald Reagan's approval fell to 41% during his election year because of his colossal mismanagement and empathetical failures? Yeah, me neither.

ABC News/Washington Post-

Approve: 45% (-3)
Disapprove: 53% (+7)

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/abc-news-coronavirus-poll

This forum would make you believe Trump's approval rating would be 21%.

It honestly should be. He's an objectively terrible president, but the Republican Party is 100% behind him.

99.999%, thank you.  

You're one in a hundred thousand, PQG.

Off topic:
I'm now interested in where she actually stands on things after she got excited about CA-25. She could just be a frustrated neoconservativish type or just someone who just isn't a Democrat and who hopes she gets less taxes in the future.

Thats what DMs are for.

[woodley park]

Morning Consult, May 31-June 1, 1990 adults

Approve 39
Disapprove 56

Strongly approve 22
Strongly disapprove 43

Biden 46, Trump 37

It's only one poll, but this is the first sub-40 approval for Trump I've seen in quite a while.

Morning Consult doesn't appear to be doing state-by-state approvals anymore, which is a shame.

[woodley park]

It is like Trump bragging about just hitting 50% approval in a total BS Rasmussen poll. It just underscores his weakness.

[woodley park]

From Firehouse Subs...

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1268706149077061632

Oh boy. That's mega yikes territory for him.

Is Firehouse a GOP pollster?

[woodley park]

Iowa: PPP, June 3-4, 963 voters

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Trump 48, Biden 47

Greenfield 45, Ernst 43

I think this forum is way, way too bullish both on Ernst's chances in the Senate, and Trump's chances in the state. Since 2000, Iowa has voted D three times and Republican twice, yet some how it became Titanium R after 2016.

[woodley park]

Not an approval poll, but a very Pro-Trump poll from Remington Polls.


https://remingtonresearchgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/National_Public_Opinion_06-04-2020.pdf

It’s a blatant push poll, but OK.

There have been reports that Trump’s campaign will intentionally cook up a pro-Trump pill to calm the President down, as he has been incensed by mainstream pollsters showing Biden with a growing lead. Could this have been one of those?

[woodley park]

That is an ugly poll for Trump, no matter how you try and spin it. Even the lead amongst men is basically a wash at this point.

[woodley park]

Civiqs tracker, 6/5

Trump job approval: 40/57 (-17)

Alaska: 47/50 (-3)
Arizona: 40/57 (-17)
Colorado: 36/61 (-25)
Florida: 45/52 (-7)
Georgia: 44/53 (-9)
Iowa: 45/52 (-7)
Kansas: 49/48 (+1)
Michigan: 41/56 (-15)
Minnesota: 37/60 (-23)
Nevada: 37/60 (-23)
New Hampshire: 37/59 (-22)
New Mexico: 44/53 (-9)
North Carolina: 43/54 (-11)
Ohio: 45/53 (-8)
Pennsylvania: 42/54 (-12)
Texas: 47/50 (-3)
Virginia: 39/58 (-19)
Wisconsin: 43/54 (-11)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Forget Texas and Georgia, watchout dark horse Alaska

Realistically, what are the odds that Trump is absolutely tanking in Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada, but has a 44% approval rating in New Mexico?

[woodley park]

Who said they were waiting for Gallup...?

Gallup, May 28-June 4, 1034 adults (prior poll May 1-13)

Approve 39 (-10)
Disapprove 57 (+9)

It is going to be a beautiful day.

[woodley park]

This is the first time Biden has hit 50 in YouGov, correct?

[woodley park]

AP/NORC, June 11-15, 1310 adults (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 49 (+5)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll (typically one of his worst) since last August.

50 percent strong disapproval is great news for Trump. Show's he is generating intense feeling and motivating voters. Law & order jobs bump!

[woodley park]

We are now neck deep in the nightmare scenario, where the haste to reopen causes a surge in new cases, a self-inflicted “second” wave (with quotation marks used because the first one never really ended, it had just transitioned to manageable decline). This second wave not only means a surge in suffering and death, it also makes that V-shaped recovery less and less realistic.

Trump was the lead cheerleader for the rapid re-opening, and extremely, publicly hostile to masks and mask wearers. It is totally fair to lay the blame for this surge at his feet.

Pundits and posters on this board said that if COVID surged after a push to re-open, then Trump was likely finished. Four months out, I’m wondering if his new polling low is here to stay. Thoughts? And don’t insult my intelligence with that “4 months is a lifetime in politics” nonsense.

[woodley park]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/313454/trump-job-approval-rating-steady-lower-level.aspx

Gallup

Approve: 38 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Lowest since January 2019.

Remember reading about how Ronald Reagan hit 38% in the polls four months before his landslide re-election? Yeah, me neither.

[woodley park]

I don't understand why anyone expects the race to tighten. This is so far beyond the Dow Jones and unemployment rate at this point. Literally every other major country in the world is over the hump, but not the United States. We're lost in a dark tunnel with no light in sight.

Trump has failed catastrophically. I'm hearing word now that the Trump administration wants to just tell America that we need to just deal with the fact that COVID is here, and get used to 50,000 new cases and a rising death toll. If that is the new line, this presidency is over.

[woodley park]

I don't understand why anyone expects the race to tighten. This is so far beyond the Dow Jones and unemployment rate at this point. Literally every other major country in the world is over the hump, but not the United States. We're lost in a dark tunnel with no light in sight.

Trump has failed catastrophically. I'm hearing word now that the Trump administration wants to just tell America that we need to just deal with the fact that COVID is here, and get used to 50,000 new cases and a rising death toll.

NOT saying I don't believe it (because...Trump), but do you have a preliminary source on that, WP?

Sure thing. I'm referring to this report in Washington Post, which cites anonymous senior administration officials as sources:

"Trump’s advisers, by contrast, are seeking ways to reframe his response to the coronavirus — even as the president himself largely seeks to avoid the topic because he views it as a political loser. They are sending health officials to swing states, putting doctors on TV in regional markets where the virus is surging, crafting messages on an economic recovery and writing talking points for allies to deliver to potential voters.

The goal is to convince Americans that they can live with the virus — that schools should reopen, professional sports should return, a vaccine is likely to arrive by the end of the year and the economy will continue to improve.

White House officials also hope Americans will grow numb to the escalating death toll and learn to accept tens of thousands of new cases a day, according to three people familiar with the White House’s thinking, who requested anonymity to reveal internal deliberations. Americans will “live with the virus being a threat,” in the words of one of those people, a senior administration official."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-and-biden-campaigns-shift-focus-to-coronavirus-as-pandemic-surges/2020/07/06/53a4ec50-bd62-11ea-80b9-40ece9a701dc_story.html

It is just so infuriatingly cynical!

[woodley park]

Now Trump is threatening to cut off funding to schools that do not re-open, saying that schools in Western Europe are re-opening, so we should be doing the same. Except, you know, Western Europe got past the virus while we are still lost in the sauce. It defies logic, sanity, and even parody. It is a shame we have to wait until January to get these clowns out of office.