Trump approval ratings thread 1.6
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Author Topic: Trump approval ratings thread 1.6  (Read 166292 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #2850 on: November 30, 2020, 05:06:02 PM »

Here's Gallup:



Quote
These findings are from a postelection survey conducted Nov. 5-19, a period during which Trump's legal team was challenging the results in a number of states. The increase in Biden's favorability between Gallup's final preelection and first postelection readings is driven by independents and Republicans, whose positive ratings of Biden grew from 48% to 55% and 6% to 12%, respectively. Democrats' nearly unanimous positive ratings remained constant.

Trump's slightly lower postelection favorable rating is owed more to Republicans than independents or Democrats. Republicans' rating of the president fell six points to 89%, while it was essentially unchanged among independents and static among Democrats.

Pre- and Postelection Favorable Readings of Presidential Candidates, 2000-2020
% of Americans with a favorable opinion

Final preelection reading   Postelection reading (Nov/Dec)   Change
%
%
pct. pts.
2020   
Joe Biden           49   55   +6
Donald Trump   45   42   -3
2016   
Donald Trump   34   42   +8
Hillary Clinton   43   43     0
2012   
Barack Obama   55   58   +3
Mitt Romney   46   50   +4
2008   
Barack Obama   62   68   +6
John McCain   50   64   +14
2004   
George W. Bush   51   60   +9
John Kerry      52   NA   NA
2000*   
George W. Bush   55   59   +4
Al Gore           56   57   +1

...my comment:

Donald Trump had a big hole to dig himself out of in 2016, and he may have had far less chance than the average President of building credibility for the next election. He had great difficulty developing rapport with people who voted against him in 2016, and even if he went from getting 45.93% of the popular vote to 47.07% of the popular vote in 2020, he ended up with less than enough in 2020.

It is far easier to govern if one begins with a well-filled reservoir of credibility and hope among the people. Lowered expectations may be easier to achieve, but those are inadequate in the long run. Lowered expectations (the Trump Presidency in 2016) become irrelevant when viable alternatives emerge. Consider the clunker vehicle that you tolerate as you hold a crappy, low-paying job while you attend a vocational-technical course at the community college. You go from being an oil-change 'specialist' to a well-paid technician. Do you go to the tote-the-note lot for another car when that clunker becomes unsafe and unreliable or do you go for a better car, one much newer (or even new)? You know the story.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2851 on: December 01, 2020, 07:29:41 AM »

Truly amazing how we have a president openly trying to pull a coup and still has a 43% approval rating.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2852 on: December 01, 2020, 03:42:13 PM »

Trump offers many exactly what they want.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2853 on: December 01, 2020, 08:24:25 PM »

Truly amazing how we have a president openly trying to pull a coup and still has a 43% approval rating.

Just accept that close to half of this country is corrupted and incapable of logical, rational thinking. We should be happy that it's only 43%.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2854 on: December 03, 2020, 08:23:29 AM »

Ipsos Core Political Data, Nov. 30-Dec. 1, 1113 adults including 958 RV (2-week change)

Adults:

Approve 38 (+1)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+5)


RV:

Approve 37 (-1)
Disapprove 62 (+3)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 51 (+7)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2855 on: December 09, 2020, 12:17:37 PM »

The Economist/YouGov tracker, Dec. 6-8, 1500 adults

NOTE: the prior poll (2 weeks ago) was RV rather than adults, so the deltas probably aren't meaningful.

Trump:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-4)


Biden:

Approve 52 (-3)
Disapprove 32 (-5)

Strongly approve 34 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 20 (-6)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2856 on: December 10, 2020, 06:33:55 PM »

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Dec. 2-8, 4419 adults including 3812 RV

Note: before anyone freaks out about the deltas, last week's sample was more Democratic/less Republican than this week's (53D/38R/10I last week, 51D/39R/11I this week among RVs; party breakdown among adults not shown).


Biden:

Adults:

Approve 56 (-2)
Disapprove 35 (nc)

Strongly approve 31 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 23 (-1)

RV:

Approve 57 (-5)
Disapprove 36 (+2)

Strongly approve 34 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 25 (+1)


Trump:

Adults:

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 55 (-4)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-5)

RV:

Approve 42 (+5)
Disapprove 56 (-6)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-6)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2857 on: December 12, 2020, 02:48:43 PM »

Trump is gonna go down in History with Taft and Hoover anyways, as the 3 rd Prez to lose the House and lose reelection anyways. Biden has a good head start on Trump, 2024 Bob Casey is gonna secure the most important battleground state PA
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2858 on: December 21, 2020, 06:34:01 AM »

Trump is gonna go down in History with Taft and Hoover anyways, as the 3 rd Prez to lose the House and lose reelection anyways. Biden has a good head start on Trump, 2024 Bob Casey is gonna secure the most important battleground state PA

He has his supporters, and his approval and disapproval numbers are very close to the electoral results (if you assume that approval gets votes and disapproval gives votes to the opponent:

 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [IF
APPROVE / DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly (approve/disapprove), or only somewhat?]
** President Trump Job Ratings Summary Among Registered Voters **
Approve Disapprove (Don’t know)
Latest (6-9 Dec 20) 47% 52 2
High (4-7 Apr 20) 49% 49 2
Low (22-24 Oct 17) 38% 57 5
Average (2017-Present) 45% 53 3
-------------Approve------------- ----------Disapprove---------- (Don’t know)
TOTAL Strongly Somewhat TOTAL Somewhat Strongly
6-9 Dec 20 47% 30 17 52 8 44 2

(for legibility -- pb)
total approval 47% 30 strongly, 17 somewhat
total disapproval 52% 8 somewhat, 44 strongly

...this is fairly close to the electoral result of 47-51!




17. How do you think history will remember Trump’s presidency? Will he be remembered as:

1. One of the country’s greatest presidents 22%
2. An above average president 16%
3. An average president 10%
4. A below average president 8%
5. One of the country’s worst presidents 42%
6. (Don’t know) 2%


For reference (11-13 Dec 16)

What are your expectations for Donald Trump’s presidency? Do you think he will be:

One of greatest 11%
Above average 25%
Average 16%
Below average 12%
One of worst 31%
(Don’t know) 2%


6-9 Dec 20 22% 16 10 8 42 2
For reference: What are your expectations for Donald Trump’s presidency? Do you think he will be:


11-13 Dec 16 11% 25 16 12 31 4
For reference: What are your expectations for Barack Obama's presidency? Do you think he will be:
One of greatest 19%
A great president 43%
Average 23%
Below average 5%
One of worst 6%
(Don’t know) 4%

after one term in office:

14-16 Dec 13 6% 16 33 16 28 1
One of greatest 6%
A good president 16%
Average 33%
Below average 16%
One of worst 28%
(Don’t know) 1%

Obama:

(one of the greatest/good/average/below average/one of the worst/don't know)
9-11 Dec 12 12% 29 19 14 23 1
14-15 Dec 10 5% 24 33 19 15 3
8-9 Dec 09 13% 30 24 12 16 5
9-10 Dec 08 19% 43 23 5 6 4

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/12/Fox_December-6-9-2020_National_Topline_December-11-Release.pdf

Without question... he is certifiably awful. He did things that he would not get away with without the personality cult. That personality cult came close to getting him re-elected.

Of Presidential nominees who lost both the popular vote and the electoral college in true binary elections:

Trump 20 46.82%
Romney 12  47.15%
McCain 08 45.60%
Kerry 04  48.26%
Dukakis 88  45.65%
Mondale 84 40.56%
Carter 80  41.01%
Ford 76 48.01%

A crude model explains how Trump lost in 2020 after winning in 2016: In 2016, voters over 51 were about 5% more R than D and voters under 35 were about 20% more D than R. The voters over 51 in 2016 were 55 or older in 2016 if they were still voting. The habit of voting continues until one can no longer vote due to death or debility, and about 1.6% of the electorate dies each year (debility is about the same, and people among the debile in one year are usually dead four years later). The younger voters replacing those who die off in the electorate also age from 14 (under 18 are non-voters, obviously) to 35 go from 18 to 39, and over four years that is about a 1.6% shift -- (.25 x 4
x 1.6 = 1.6), which was more than enough to swing Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and (most likely in 2016) Florida. Biden won Arizona and Georgia instead, so with NE-02, that is a wash in the prediction. 

Trump seems to have not solidified any vote and seems to have won nobody over. The electorate changed in its political culture, and what would have been a bare win became a bare loss.

Trump has his supporters, people who believe that he was cheated in the election through massive vote fraud because the results were not as they were on midnight on Election Night. (Votes aren't supposed to be coming in late from places like Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia against him, or so he thought, so they must be forged or fabricated). Go back to 2008 and you will find that it took two days for the votes to come in for a decision on North Carolina and over a week for Missouri. This was without so unusually heavy volume of voting this time, and with a gigantic number of votes by absentee ballot.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2859 on: January 17, 2021, 03:12:28 PM »

...after the coup attempt. Don't fool yourself: that is exactly what it was.

This pollster (Quinnipiac) has been less sympathetic in its numbers to Trump than just about any. Still, this is the first to follow the treasonable insurrection of January 6:

Quote
Following last week's mob attack on the U.S. Capitol during a joint session of Congress to formally certify Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election, nearly three-quarters (74 percent) of voters say democracy in the United States is under threat, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today. Just 21 percent of voters say that democracy in the United States is alive and well.

"When it comes to whether American democracy is under threat, both Republicans and Democrats see a raging five-alarm fire, but clearly disagree on who started it," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.



The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll



1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

Approve 33 (26 strong, 7 somewhat), Disapprove 60  (strong 54, somewhat 4 -- rounding error), don't know/no answer (hereafter DK/NA) 7%

(this is down from 41 approve, 55 disapprove on December 10, 2020)

2. Do you believe there was widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, or not?

Yes. so believe -- 37%; no 58%; DK/NA 5%... no real change from December

3. As president, do you think that Joe Biden will be able to unite the country after he takes office, or do you expect partisan divisions to remain the same as they are today?

Yes (can unify) 31%; no (expect divisions) 56%; DK/NA 14%

 
4. Which comes closer to your point of view: democracy in the United States is alive and well or democracy in the United States is under threat?


alive and well 21% under threat 74% DK/NA 5%


5. Do you think that extremism is a big problem in the United States, or don't you think so?

yes (big problem 81%) no 12% DK/NA7%

6. Do you think that - the Republican members of Congress who tried to stop the formal certification of Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election were undermining democracy or protecting democracy?

undermining 58% protecting 34% don't know/no answer 8%

7. Do you think that - President Trump is undermining democracy or protecting democracy?

60% undermining 34% protecting 6% DK/NA


8. Do you think that - the individuals who stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6th were undermining democracy or protecting democracy?

undermining 90% protecting 10% DK/NA 10%


9. Do you think that President Trump should resign as president, or don't you think so?

yes/resign 53% no 43% DK/NA 4%

10. Do you think that President Trump should be removed from office, or don't you think so?

yes/remove 52%  no 45% DK/NA 3%


11. Do you think that President Trump is mentally stable, or not?

yes/stable 45% no 38%. DK/NA 7%


12. Do you consider what happened at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th a coup attempt, or not?

yes/coup 47 no 43 DK/NA 10


13. Do you want to see the individuals who stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6th held accountable for their actions, or not?

91% yes/hold responsible 6% no 3% DK/NA

(I'm not ordinarily showing partisan or other demographic breakdowns, as those are in the source... but the split is 89-8-3 among Republicans, 99-1-0 among Democrats, and 89-9-2 among Independents... it does not look good and it probably never will look good from hereon.

14. Do you hold President Trump responsible for the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, or not?

56% yes/responsible 42% no DK/NA 3%

15. Do you think that law enforcement officials did everything they could to prevent the initial storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, or don't you think so?

19% yes/they did  71% no 10% DK/NA

16. How concerned are you about the safety of elected officials in the United States: very concerned, somewhat concerned, not so concerned, or not concerned at all?

35% very concerned
35% somewhat concerned
13% not so concerned
16% not concerned at all

2% DK/NA

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3686
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Mike88
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« Reply #2860 on: January 19, 2021, 10:12:05 AM »

Rasmussen is so drunk right now. Jesus!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2861 on: January 19, 2021, 10:23:17 AM »

Rasmussen is so drunk right now. Jesus!

Yeah, they're nuts.  (For those wondering: they have Trump's approval up to 51/48 today.)
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #2862 on: January 19, 2021, 10:23:56 AM »

Rasmussen is so drunk right now. Jesus!

I hope to God they don't switch over to tracking Biden's approval numbers.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2863 on: February 08, 2021, 12:33:40 AM »
« Edited: February 08, 2021, 01:23:56 AM by pbrower2a »

Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston

https://uh.edu/hobby/tx2021/attitudes.pdf

TEXAS

This may be water over the dam or under the bridge, but at this point if Trump were up for election (he isn't, of course) he would lose. It's favorability, but with these numbers the difference between approval and favorability cannot mean that much when one has politicians in contrast. This of course follows the insane events at the US Capitol about a month ago. Texas is increasingly becoming a microcosm of America in most aspects of life, although it is still decidedly more Republican than the US as a whole.

Trump did win the state decisively, although less decisively than any Republican nominee since Dole in 1996.

....................VF  SF N SU VUDK
Joe Biden       26 15 11 5 37 6
Kamala Harris 25 14   8 6 37 10
Donald Trump 29 10   5 5 46 5
VF very favorable
SF somewhat favorable
N  (neutral) neither favorable nor unfavorable
SU slightly unfavorable
VU very unfavorable
DK don't know/no response

Biden is at 41-43, but Trump is at 39-51 in favorability. To be sure, that is not approval, but I can see no way of seeing Biden more positively than Trump among Texas voters for now.  
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