Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is not any Trump bump, but the economy is improving, to where McConnell will successfully block the 2nd stimulus check. As we won't know what happens to 5th stimulus when new Congress reconvenes.

But, 4 stimulus monies did their job, they brought down the unemployment rate, where jobs are now holding job fairs, many job fairs are happening

[Sir Mohamed]

Civiqs - thru 9/2

National: 41/56 (-15)

Alaska: 43/55 (-12)
Arizona: 43/53 (-10)
Colorado: 38/59 (-22)
Florida: 45/53 (-8)
Georgia: 44/53 (-9)
Iowa: 46/52 (-6)
Kansas: 52/45 (+7)
Maine: 37/60 (-23)
Michigan: 41/56 (-15)
Minnesota: 39/58 (-19)
Montana: 47/50 (-3)
Nevada: 36/60 (-24)
New Hampshire: 37/58 (-21)
New Mexico: 43/54 (-11)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Pennsylvania: 42/55 (-13)
South Carolina: 50/48 (+2)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 38/59 (-21)
Wisconsin: 43/54 (-11)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Looks reasonable except for AK. If he's underwater by 12, which is similar to PA, WI and NM, you'd expect a much closer race. We've had some polls that showed Trump just barely ahead here, but I'm not convinced it will flip in the end.

[pbrower2a]

Civiqs - thru 9/2

National: 41/56 (-15)

Alaska: 43/55 (-12)
Arizona: 43/53 (-10)
Colorado: 38/59 (-22)
Florida: 45/53 (-8)
Georgia: 44/53 (-9)
Iowa: 46/52 (-6)
Kansas: 52/45 (+7)
Maine: 37/60 (-23)
Michigan: 41/56 (-15)
Minnesota: 39/58 (-19)
Montana: 47/50 (-3)
Nevada: 36/60 (-24)
New Hampshire: 37/58 (-21)
New Mexico: 43/54 (-11)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Pennsylvania: 42/55 (-13)
South Carolina: 50/48 (+2)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 38/59 (-21)
Wisconsin: 43/54 (-11)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Civiqs - thru 9/2

National: 41/56 (-15)

Alaska: 43/55 (-12)
Arizona: 43/53 (-10)
Colorado: 38/59 (-22)
Florida: 45/53 (-8)
Georgia: 44/53 (-9)
Iowa: 46/52 (-6)
Kansas: 52/45 (+7)
Maine: 37/60 (-23)
Michigan: 41/56 (-15)
Minnesota: 39/58 (-19)
Montana: 47/50 (-3)
Nevada: 36/60 (-24)
New Hampshire: 37/58 (-21)
New Mexico: 43/54 (-11)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Pennsylvania: 42/55 (-13)
South Carolina: 50/48 (+2)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 38/59 (-21)
Wisconsin: 43/54 (-11)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

If these numbers are true, barring a major scandal against Biden, Trump is finished. There's no way he can win re-election with those approvals.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It all depends on how much of a pad Biden gets in Early Voting and VBM to surpass the Senior citizen vote that will do in person voting on Nov 3rd.   I wouldn't underestimate Trump, this is the first VBM election we have had and it can go the entire month of Nov.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1302483498951901185

New Mexico was on the fringe of competitiveness in 2016.

Approval 39/56, so average this with the Civiqs number. Either way... if Trump had any idea that New Mexico would give him its five electoral votes in 2020... well, that chance looks to be as accessible as if it were in a black hole. 

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

It’s almost like elections tighten as they near. Told you so (yet again).

If Trump has it so tight, he hasn't lead in a single poll and has lost every 278 state poll out there when it comes to MN, MI, PA and WI

Trump is in a stronger position than you think. He can afford to lose some states. Biden is the one who needs to flip them.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It’s almost like elections tighten as they near. Told you so (yet again).

If Trump has it so tight, he hasn't lead in a single poll and has lost every 278 state poll out there when it comes to MN, MI, PA and WI

Trump is in a stronger position than you think. He can afford to lose some states. Biden is the one who needs to flip them.

He can, but it depends on the states   Michigan? Arizona? Absolutely.  But there are a few states (particularly Florida and Pennsylvania) that, if flipped, will make re-election an uphill battle.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s almost like elections tighten as they near. Told you so (yet again).

If Trump has it so tight, he hasn't lead in a single poll and has lost every 278 state poll out there when it comes to MN, MI, PA and WI

Biden has a RCP lead of 6-8 points, Trump has lead in none of them

Trump is in a stronger position than you think. He can afford to lose some states. Biden is the one who needs to flip them.

[emailking]

It’s almost like elections tighten as they near. Told you so (yet again).

If Trump has it so tight, he hasn't lead in a single poll and has lost every 278 state poll out there when it comes to MN, MI, PA and WI

Trump is in a stronger position than you think. He can afford to lose some states. Biden is the one who needs to flip them.

This has the premise that Biden is inheriting Hilary's map. He's not her and is also polling better than she.

[solidcoalition]

It’s almost like elections tighten as they near. Told you so (yet again).

If Trump has it so tight, he hasn't lead in a single poll and has lost every 278 state poll out there when it comes to MN, MI, PA and WI

Trump is in a stronger position than you think. He can afford to lose some states. Biden is the one who needs to flip them.

This has the premise that Biden is inheriting Hilary's map. He's not her and is also polling better than she.

I had the impression the Clinton campaign apparatus was far superior to Biden-Harris.

[pbrower2a]

CNN in two swing states.

Trump approval
NC: 46/51
WI: 43/55

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

How does Trump win with such horrible numbers on approval?

Delaware, DEE CEE, Illinois, Oregon, and Rhode Island are not shown, but at this point Trump has disapproval numbers (figuring that Delaware, DC, Illinois, Oregon, and Rhode Island) give Trump disapproval numbers of 55% or higher, then Biden has a very strong grasp on 272 electoral votes. This is more electoral failure by Trump than winning by Biden,  but that will not matter in November. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blue Avatars think we are still in a 4 percent unemployment rate, Obama economy, which he raised taxes on the rich, v a 10 unemployment rate under Bush W and Trump, that cut taxes for the wealthy. Trump loses

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Blue Avatars think we are still in a 4 percent unemployment rate, Obama economy, which he raised taxes on the rich, v a 10 unemployment rate under Bush W and Trump, that cut taxes for the wealthy. Trump loses

What are you yapping about?

Obama won in 2012 with unemployment at 7%. He won because the economy turned around at just the right time. And the trend mattered, from a high of 10% to 7%.

Trump is in an even better spot. Record low unemployment, a spike to 16% due to the pandemic and not Trump’s fault, for half the year. It has now fallen to 8%, and will be even lower than that by November. That’s a massive victory for the president.

2012 is an excellent analogue to 2020. Polling literally does not matter, many of the parameters are there for a Trump win. Which is what I’m forecasting. Good luck lol

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Blue Avatars think we are still in a 4 percent unemployment rate, Obama economy, which he raised taxes on the rich, v a 10 unemployment rate under Bush W and Trump, that cut taxes for the wealthy. Trump loses

Trump is in an even better spot. Record low unemployment, a spike to 16% due to the pandemic and not Trump’s fault, for half the year.

The pandemic, itself, is not Trump's fault.  But I think it's more complex than simply "we were doing well before COVID.  Besides the last six months, we've been doing great."

I think we here in our uber-political bubble sometimes overestimate how perceptive the average American is ("real Americans will know that it's not Trump's fault").  If Joe Schmo voter doesn't have a job because of the pandemic and is living paycheck-to-paycheck, it brings little comfort to him that unemployment is falling and that other people are going back to work. 

Now, there may not be enough Mr. Schmo's to make a major difference electorally.  But 2016 was a reminder how a relative few votes can swing things one way or the other. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blue Avatars think we are still in a 4 percent unemployment rate, Obama economy, which he raised taxes on the rich, v a 10 unemployment rate under Bush W and Trump, that cut taxes for the wealthy. Trump loses

What are you yapping about?

Obama won in 2012 with unemployment at 7%. He won because the economy turned around at just the right time. And the trend mattered, from a high of 10% to 7%.

Trump is in an even better spot. Record low unemployment, a spike to 16% due to the pandemic and not Trump’s fault, for half the year. It has now fallen to 8%, and will be even lower than that by November. That’s a massive victory for the president.x

2012 is an excellent analogue to 2020. Polling literally does not matter, many of the parameters are there for a Trump win. Which is what I’m forecasting. Good luck lol

We are talking about 2016 when unemployment was at 4 percent, no the tax cut exacebated income inequality, that was not helpful to unemployment, thats why Ds won the House in 2018, it created huge deficits after 2001 and 2017
We are at 10 percent unemployment

The Heroes Act that McConnell is obstructing gives the working poor 1200 in stimulus money, what did the tax cut give working people zilch, naday, thats why Trump has never lead in a single poll

[emailking]

It’s almost like elections tighten as they near. Told you so (yet again).

If Trump has it so tight, he hasn't lead in a single poll and has lost every 278 state poll out there when it comes to MN, MI, PA and WI

Trump is in a stronger position than you think. He can afford to lose some states. Biden is the one who needs to flip them.

This has the premise that Biden is inheriting Hilary's map. He's not her and is also polling better than she.

I had the impression the Clinton campaign apparatus was far superior to Biden-Harris.

The current polling evidence would suggest you were mistaken but we'll see I guess.

[woodley park]

The fact is that regardless of what the job figures say, life in this country has been completely upended with no end in sight. Kids aren’t going back to school in most places, sports seasons have been canceled or truncated, many social gathering spots, like restaurants, are not able to operate at normal capacity, and many folks will spend this holiday season entirely alone. This is completely abnormal, and the United States stands alone, compared to Western Europe and Northeast Asia, in terms of that. Not to mention, the number of people who have died from this pandemic continues to go up, even if at a slower clip. I’ve read that with cold weather and flu season incoming, we are likely to see new cases and deaths rise again come October.

America in 2016 was imperfect, but at the very least you could go out and get food safely, see your elderly parents without worrying that your very breath could kill them, you could have or go to weddings, unwind with a sports game, or send your child to school and not worry about their health and yours. You can’t do any of that now. And nobody knows when that is going to change.

That’s a long way of saying, we’re in a pretty bad place, and simply harping on the jobs report is missing the forest fire for the trees. Trump didn’t start the forest fire, but his conduct has basically come down to saying that it will eventually burn itself out, miraculously, and then refusing to encourage people to move out of the path of the fire, besmirching fireproof clothing and housing materials, holding a rally in the midst of a burning village, then suggesting that maybe if we all spit on it, it will extinguish. No, its outbreak was not his fault, but it seems like he has done everything in his power to make it worse.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let me repeat this again:

Blue Avatars think we are still in a 4 percent unemployment rate, Obama economy, which he raised taxes on the rich, v a 10 unemployment rate under Bush W and Trump, that cut taxes for the wealthy. Trump loses

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump pops 47% from The Hill poll.

Again, tightening, and Trump improving.

I’ve said it all along. Trump will get at least 46%, most likely 47%.

If he can get to 48% (no chance imo), Trump would win the EC fairly comfortably. But I’m going with 47% when all is said and done.

[emailking]

You really think the only possibilities for Trump are 46% and 47%?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

You really think the only possibilities for Trump are 46% and 47%?

Yes.

He hasn’t lost much, if any, support over the last 4 years. 2020 will be similar to 2016 with what the result looks like, but the underlying mechanisms are very similar to Obama’s re-election in 2012 - almost perfect match, actually (but ofc Trump isn’t winning the pop vote).

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

You really think the only possibilities for Trump are 46% and 47%?

Yes.

He hasn’t lost much, if any, support over the last 4 years. 2020 will be similar to 2016 with what the result looks like, but the underlying mechanisms are very similar to Obama’s re-election in 2012 - almost perfect match, actually (but ofc Trump isn’t winning the pop vote).

Why does Trump deserve a second term?

Don't feed the troll.

[emailking]

You really think the only possibilities for Trump are 46% and 47%?

Yes.

He hasn’t lost much, if any, support over the last 4 years. 2020 will be similar to 2016 with what the result looks like, but the underlying mechanisms are very similar to Obama’s re-election in 2012 - almost perfect match, actually (but ofc Trump isn’t winning the pop vote).

Then unless there's a significant 3rd party vote Trump is toast.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632

[BigSerg]

3 Poll


https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1303530168741396482?s=19

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1303529786086748160?s=19

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1303530466277044225?s=19