Trump approval ratings thread 1.6 (user search)
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  Trump approval ratings thread 1.6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Trump approval ratings thread 1.6  (Read 166316 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: November 11, 2019, 08:37:53 AM »

Crayons out for Morning Consult.




90% shades -- 20% or more either way
70% shades 10-19%
50% shades-- 5-9%
20% shades -- under 5%
...white would be for ties (but there are none).

Is any comment necessary here?

Is this based simply on approval numbers, with a state going against Trump if he has a higher disapproval rating than approval rating?

What if we moved the goal posts a bit, in Trump's favor, and only turned states against him if either of the following were true:

a.) His approval rating was at 42% or below
b.) His disapproval rating was 60% or higher

Would he still get re-elected?

If (b) is true, (a) must be true as well.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2019, 01:28:23 PM »

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 1-5, 1500 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Impeach Trump?

Yes 52 (nc)
No 41 (-2)

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has abused his power at any point as president?

Yes 62
No 33

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime at any point as president?

Yes 54
No 38

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2019, 10:58:18 AM »

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Nov. 10-12, 1500 adults including 1206 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)

Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 41 (nc)

Impeach? Yes 45 (-1), No 39 (nc)

Remove? Yes 45 (-1), No 39 (-1)


RV:

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 30 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 41 (nc)

Impeach? Yes 49 (nc), No 43 (nc)

Remove? Yes 49 (-1), No 43 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 49 (+2), R 40 (-1)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2019, 11:09:12 AM »

Morning Consult/Politico, Nov. 8-10, 1993 RV (1-week change, some questions not asked last week)

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 28
Probably vote for Trump 9
Probably someone else 6
Definitely someone else 48

GCB: D 45, R 37

Impeachment inquiry: Support 50 (+1), Oppose 42 (-1)

Impeach Trump: Support 49 (+2), Oppose 41 (-2)

Remove Trump: Support 48 (+1), Oppose 42 (nc)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2019, 01:40:52 PM »


Note that this poll shows 61% college grads, which is ridiculously high.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2019, 07:10:27 PM »

Ipsos Core Political Tracker (weekly), Nov. 12-13, 1116 adults including 952 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+4)

Strongly approve 23 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 45 (nc), No 42 (-1)

RV:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 46 (+1), No 43 (-2)


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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2019, 09:23:24 AM »

Pennsylvania: Muhlenberg College, Nov. 4-9, 410 RV

Approve 40
Disapprove 56

Biden 52, Trump 43
Sanders 50, Trump 45
Warren 50, Trump 45

Trump deserves to be re-elected: 42/57

Approve of impeachment inquiry: 51/47

Impeach Trump: Yes 49, No 48

Muhlenberg is a very good pollster (rated A+ by 538).  Full results at https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/academics/polisci/PA_Pres_Nov_2019__Report_%20(1).pdf.



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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2019, 09:40:05 AM »

AP/NORC, Oct. 15-28, 1032 adults (1-month change)

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+1)

Strongly approve 20 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)



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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2019, 06:56:59 PM »

A couple of Fox News state polls:


North Carolina: Nov. 10-13, 1504 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 30
Strongly approve 42

Impeach and remove Trump? Yes 42, No 50


Nevada: Nov. 10-13, 1506 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 43

Impeach and remove Trump? Yes 43, No 50

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2019, 04:50:29 PM »

Is Rasmussen okay?

They've gone from Trump +1 to Trump -10 to Trump +1 in a single week.

Go back a few more days and it's even worse: -11 to +1 to -10 to +1 over the last 11 days.  I've been wondering the same thing.  They used to be extremely stable.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2019, 08:35:37 AM »

Marist, Nov. 11-15, 1224 adults including 988 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

Impeach Trump? Yes 47 (-2), No 46 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 49 (+1), No 44 (-4)

RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (nc)

Definitely vote for Trump 39 (nc)
Definitely vote against him 52 (nc)

GCB: D 46 (+3), R 41 (+1)

Impeach Trump? Yes 45 (-4), No 50 (+2)

Remove Trump? Yes 47 (nc), No 47 (-2)


Removal has more support than impeachment, which makes me think a lot of people don't understand the process.



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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2019, 12:09:53 PM »

Georgia: Climate Nexus, Nov. 4-10, 688 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 40

Biden 48, Trump 47
Warren 47, Trump 47
Trump 48, Sanders 46
Trump 49, Harris 44
Trump 49, Buttigieg 42

Biden 31
Sanders 14
Warren 14
Harris 4
Buttigieg 4
Yang 2
Booker 2
Williamson 2
Others 1 or less
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2019, 11:17:44 AM »

Kaiser Family Foundation, Nov. 7-12, 1205 adults (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly approve 48 (+2)

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2019, 11:19:23 AM »

Gallup, Nov. 1-14, 1015 adults (2-week change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-3)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2019, 11:31:41 AM »

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/u9tu99dui5/econTabReport.pdf
The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Nov. 17-19, 1500 adults including 1224 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+1)

Generic D 49 (nc), Trump 40 (-1)

Impeach? Yes 45 (nc), No 40 (+1)

Remove? Yes 47 (+2), No 39 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Generic D 49 (nc), Trump 40 (-1)

Impeach? Yes 48 (-1), No 42 (-1)

Remove? Yes 49 (nc), No 42 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (-3), R 39 (-1)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: November 20, 2019, 04:36:10 PM »

Ipsos Core Political Tracker (weekly), Nov. 18-19, 1116 adults including 960 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-3)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-2)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 46 (+1), No 41 (-1)


RV:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

Strongly approve 22 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 48 (+2), No 42 (-1)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2019, 12:36:43 PM »

ARG economic survey (monthly), Nov. 17-20, 1100 adults including 992 RV

Adults:

Approve 37 (nc)
Disapprove 60 (+1)

RV:

Approve 36
Disapprove 61
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2019, 03:53:54 PM »

Morning Consult/Politico, Nov. 15-17, 1994 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2019, 08:15:01 PM »

It's amusing that averaging the two extreme polls released today (Emerson's 48/47 and ARG's 36/61), the result is 42/54 -- which is very close to the 538 average.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #19 on: November 25, 2019, 11:04:06 AM »

Rasmussen continues their recent crazy swings, back to -11 (44/55) after being at +1 a week ago.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #20 on: November 26, 2019, 08:24:43 AM »

CNN/SSRS, Nov. 21-24, 1007 adults (1-month change)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove (-3)

Impeach and remove Trump?

Yes 50 (nc)
No 43 (nc)

Based on what you have heard or read about Donald Trump’s interactions with the President of Ukraine, do you believe that Trump improperly used the presidency to gain political advantage against a potential 2020 opponent, or do you think he did not use the presidency improperly?

Used improperly 53 (+4)
Did not use improperly 42 (-1)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #21 on: November 26, 2019, 08:48:45 AM »

Morning Consult/Politico, Nov. 22-24, 1988 RV (1-week change, some questions not asked last week)

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)

2020:

Definitely Trump 28
Probably Trump 9
Probably someone else 6
Definitely someone else 48
(Net: Trump 37, someone else 54)

GCB: D 45, R 36

Support impeachment inquiry? Yes 48 (nc), No 43 (-2)

Impeach Trump? Yes 50 (+2), No 41 (-3)

Remove Trump? Yes 50 (+3), No 42 (-2)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #22 on: November 27, 2019, 02:43:49 PM »

Quinnipiac, Nov. 21-25, 1355 RV (1-month change)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-4)

Strongly approve 32 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 50 (-3)

Appears to be reversion to the mean after an outlier.  Q polls since September:

9/25: 40/55 (strongly 29/48)
9/30: 41/53 (35/48)
10/8: 40/54 (29/47)
10/14: 41/54 (31/48)
10/23: 38/58 (28/53)
11/26: 40/54 (32/50)






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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #23 on: November 27, 2019, 02:51:07 PM »

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Nov. 24-26, 1500 adults including 1189 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)

Generic D 49 (nc), Trump 41 (+1)

Impeach? Yes 46 (+1), No 38 (-2)

Remove? Yes 45 (-2), No 40 (+1)


RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Generic D 49 (nc), Trump 41 (+1)

Impeach? Yes 49 (+1), No 42 (nc)

Remove? Yes 50 (+1), No 43 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (+1), R 41 (+2)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #24 on: November 27, 2019, 02:54:54 PM »

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Nov. 25-26, 1118 adults including 971 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 21 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

Impeach? Yes 47 (+1), No 40 (-1)


RV:

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Impeach? Yes 47 (-1), No 42 (nc)

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