Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

California: UC Berkeley, July 21-27, 6756 LV

Approve 29
Disapprove 71

The article says strong disapproval is 63, but doesn't mention the strong approval number.

Biden 67, Trump 28

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nothing more to see, Trump will be soundly defeated, but McGrath will be a big loser to go down against Mith McConnell in a blue wave

This morning polls that Trump is Palin 2.0 and he will lose in McCain fashion in 2008, Palin endorsed Trump and Boehner, and both backfired. It doesnt pay off to not be a politician, Trump never learned the art of compromise, he was a businessman turned politician

[pbrower2a]

California: UC Berkeley, July 21-27, 6756 LV

Approve 29
Disapprove 71

The article says strong disapproval is 63, but doesn't mention the strong approval number.

Biden 67, Trump 28

Trump will never quite match the "strong disapproval" that the KKK has among African-Americans and Jews, but it is horrible.


Biden is 9% ahead of Hillary Clinton in California, Hillary Clinton having achieved a record level of support for a Democratic nominee in California since the FDR landslides. (This does contradict the body of the analysis).  Hillary Clinton actually did better in California in 2016 than LBJ did in 1964 or Obama in 2008, if not by much.

Cited material comes from UC-Berkeley's Institute of Government Studies, so it is likely excusable for citation:

About two-thirds of the state’s voters see the health threat from the coronavirus getting worse. They back Biden 84% to 11%. By contrast, about 1 in 8 say the health threat is getting less serious; they back Trump 87% to 10%. About 1 in 5 voters say the threat from the virus is about the same as it’s been; they’re closely divided.

......

Opinions of Trump, by contrast, have gotten worse since the winter. A Berkeley IGS poll in January showed 33% of the state’s voters approved of the way he is handling his job as president. In the most recent poll, that’s dropped to 29%, with 71% disapproving, including 63% who say they “strongly” disapprove.

.......

In California, the decline shows up in the more conservative regions of the state. In the Inland Empire, approval of Trump dropped 8 points, from 43% in January to 35% in the current poll. In the Central Valley, it dropped 7 points, from 44% in January to 37% now.

The only constituency not nominally partisan in which Trump wins in California is "evangelical Christians":

Evangelical Christians, who are among Trump’s most steadfast backers nationwide, form one of the few major demographic groups in the state that gives majority support to the president. California voters who say they are evangelicals back Trump 56% to 39%, the poll found.

... which may be enough to avert a landslide against Trump nationwide on the scale of FDR against Hoover in 1932 or Reagan against Carter in 1980...

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-08-04/trumps-base-erodes-new-poll-california

In essence...

Biden 67, Trump 28

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hodas & Associates for Restoration PAC (R)

Michigan, July 13-16, 600 LV

Approve 41
Disapprove 57

Strongly approve 33
Strongly disapprove 54

Biden 53, Trump 41


Pennsylvania, July 17-22, 600 LV

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 40
Strongly disapprove 49

Biden 51, Trump 45


Wisconsin, July 22-27, 600 LV

Approve 40
Disapprove 57

Strongly approve 32
Strongly disapprove 54

Biden 52, Trump 38

[pbrower2a]

Hodas & Associates for Restoration PAC (R)

Michigan, July 13-16, 600 LV

Approve 41
Disapprove 57

Strongly approve 33
Strongly disapprove 54

Biden 53, Trump 41


Pennsylvania, July 17-22, 600 LV

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 40
Strongly disapprove 49

Biden 51, Trump 45


Wisconsin, July 22-27, 600 LV

Approve 40
Disapprove 57

Strongly approve 32
Strongly disapprove 54

Biden 52, Trump 38

California: UC Berkeley, July 21-27, 6756 LV

Approve 29
Disapprove 71

The article says strong disapproval is 63, but doesn't mention the strong approval number.

Biden 67, Trump 28

Seat-of-the-pants handicapping for the Presidency:

AZ Biden 70 Trump 30
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 60 Trump 40
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Alaska, Missouri, and Montana:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30

California? How many 9's after the decimal point?

Michigan and Arizona would be in the categories that they were in if one averages the last two or three polls. The spectacular disapproval of Trump in Florida last week may have been an outlier...  but 52% disapproval from registered voters? Still hideous, and hurricane season could be perfect for spreading COVID-19 with all the people in shelters or scared to go into them, having to choose between a hurricane and a potentially-lethal respiratory disease.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/04/senate-presidential-polling-alabama-kentucky-sc-texas/

Texas
Biden        47
Trump       46

South Carolina
Trump        49
Biden         44

Kentucky
Trump       59
Biden        35

Alabama
Trump       58
Biden        36

Strictly speaking these are not approval polls; they are matchups. The focus in this poll is basically the Senate, and Doug Jones is going down, but Lindsey Graham is vulnerable. If I were to guess on approvals, the Trump showing would likely put him in the 40-54 category in South Carolina anb revive the navy color for Kentucky and Alabama. 

I am going to add one state that was not 10% or less one way or the other


AZ Biden 70 Trump 30
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 60 Trump 40
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

Among states decided by more than 10% one way or the other that have some interest:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30
SC Trump 85 Biden 15

[GeorgiaModerate]

50-48 Rassy Hahahaha

First by-the-numbers poll showing positive approval for Trump since early May (if we exclude a tied poll during that sane time period), though Rassy and the Hill continue to be the only two non-tracking pollsters regularly showing a single-digit margin between Trump's approval/disapproval.  

I think it’s either:

A) a slight improvement in Trump’s numbers, as YouGov/Economist has showed us
B) Rassy trying to make it seem like Trump is rebounding, probably to please the President given no one believes their polls

Both are likely imo.

Another possibility is that Rasmussen got a weird daily sample that will throw off their average until it rolls out.  This has happened to them several times, in both directions.

This appears to have been the case; they're back to 48/50 today (still too high, but closer to their normal baseline).  Since the beginning of last week:

46/52
45/54
45/54
48/51
50/48
---weekend---
51/47
49/49
48/50

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 2-4, 1500 adults including 1229 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 21 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)


RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 25 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 40 (nc)

GCB: D 50 (+2), R 38 (-2)

[Person Man]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 2-4, 1500 adults including 1229 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 21 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)


RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 25 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 40 (nc)

GCB: D 50 (+2), R 38 (-2)

That’s a big GCB gap.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Today IA poll has Ernst leading by 3, tracks with Trump's tracking polls 48/42 Partisan trends are ruling things. That's why Marshall was nominated and Daines is up by 6 over Bullock

278 EC map will be reaffirmed once again


TX was a pipedream

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Aug. 3-4, 1115 adults including 964 RV


Adults:

Approve 39 (+1)
Disapprove 57 (nc)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 37 (+1)

(New) with undecided/3rd party pushed: Biden 54, Trump 45


RV:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-1)

Biden 48 (+1), Trump 38 (nc)

Pushed: Biden 56, Trump 44

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its definitely getting closer Rassy v RV 48 to 45 v Ipsps +12 RV. But, Daines and Ernst lead in red states

[GeorgiaModerate]

50-48 Rassy Hahahaha

First by-the-numbers poll showing positive approval for Trump since early May (if we exclude a tied poll during that sane time period), though Rassy and the Hill continue to be the only two non-tracking pollsters regularly showing a single-digit margin between Trump's approval/disapproval.  

I think it’s either:

A) a slight improvement in Trump’s numbers, as YouGov/Economist has showed us
B) Rassy trying to make it seem like Trump is rebounding, probably to please the President given no one believes their polls

Both are likely imo.

Another possibility is that Rasmussen got a weird daily sample that will throw off their average until it rolls out.  This has happened to them several times, in both directions.

This appears to have been the case; they're back to 48/50 today (still too high, but closer to their normal baseline).  Since the beginning of last week:

46/52
45/54
45/54
48/51
50/48
---weekend---
51/47
49/49
48/50

...and they're back to 46/52 today.  It must have been a weird sample that has now rolled out.

[Ronnie]

...and they're back to 46/52 today.  It must have been a weird sample that has now rolled out.

Nah it’s just temporarily ticking down so that they can unveil their next “Trump comeback!” narrative in two weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew Research, July 27-Aug. 2, 11001 adults (change from mid-June)

Approve 38 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (nc)

[CellarDoor]

Pew Research, July 27-Aug. 2, 11001 adults (change from mid-June)

Approve 38 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (nc)

I wish Pew would conduct more polls.  I've always held them in high regard.

[pbrower2a]

Which narrative do you wish to believe? People who believed a certain narrative thought that Donald Trump was charmed enough to win despite so many people loathing him. People blinded by their contempt for Trump (in my case that contempt has proved itself an understatement in my current view of him), Trump was going to lose because nobody but an utter fool could support someone that awful. Hillary Clinton's "Basket of Deplorable(s)" was much larger than many of us thought.

Quinnipiac:

Two states (KY, SC) that rarely get polled, and one that doesn't get polled often enough (ME) for a built-in complexity:

12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     KY     ME     SC
 
Approve              49%    37%    49%
Disapprove           47     60     47
DK/NA                 4      3      4



Relating to the Senate:

 
10-11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - (KY) Rand Paul, Mitch McConnell / (ME) Angus King, Susan Collins / (SC) Tim Scott, Lindsey Graham - is handling [his/her] job as United States Senator?
                     KY..............     ME............       SC...........
                     Paul   McConnell     King   Collins       Scott  Graham
 
Approve              43%    46%           60%    43%           55%    43%
Disapprove           38     48            25     52            22     47
DK/NA                19      6            14      6            22     10

McConnell, Collins, and Graham are the ones up for re-election, and they are clearly behind the Senators not up for re-election this time, and all three are underwater in approval.

 

 https://poll.qu.edu/2020-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=3670

This is hideous for Trump. It's likely an exaggeration. To be sure, only 200 in the sample... but if such a sample size is too small for Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, such a sample size is adequate for Iowa:


Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
NEW @davidbinder / @focusonrural (D) Poll (7/30-31):

IOWA:
Biden 49% (+6)
Trump 43%
.
MICHIGAN:
Biden 51% (+10)
Trump 41%
.
WISCONSIN:
Biden 53% (+11)
Trump 42%
.
MINNESOTA:
Biden 54% (+18)
Trump 36%
12:22 PM · Aug 6, 2020

Utah, Hinckley Institute (associated, I assume, with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. a/k/a the Mormons:

Trump approval 55 (strong 36, somewhat 19)
Trump disapproval 43 approve (strong 36, somewhat 7)

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/8/6/21357209/donald-trump-holding-onto-lead-over-joe-biden-in-utah-deseret-news-hinckley-institute-poll

...I get to re-introduce the deep blue for a state in which Trump has a 55% or higher approval. But even here, strong disapproval is just slightly (if insignificant statistically) higher than strong approval. This is about the shakiest 55% support that I can imagine, as Trump is so polarizing that "slight approval" is usually very small. Trump will win Utah, but with an unusually low level of support in this usually strong-R state.

I can say this: there will be plenty of Utah voters who will vote for Trump yet not be disappointed when he loses.

Seat-of-the-pants handicapping for the Presidency:

AZ Biden 70 Trump 30
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 55 Trump 45
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 60 Trump 40
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Kentucky and South Carolina:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
KY Trump 65 Biden 35
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30
SC Trump 60 Biden 40
UT Trump 95 other alternatives 5

California? How many 9's after the decimal point?

This is the first time in a long time in which I give Biden a stronger chance in Iowa than Trump. It is not an approval poll, but I can't imagine Trump having a positive approval rating with this Iowa split.

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Which narrative do you wish to believe? People who believed a certain narrative thought that Donald Trump was charmed enough to win despite so many people loathing him. People blinded by their contempt for Trump (in my case that contempt has proved itself an understatement in my current view of him), Trump was going to lose because nobody but an utter fool could support someone that awful. Hillary Clinton's "Basket of Deplorable(s)" was much larger than many of us thought.

Quinnipiac:

Two states (KY, SC) that rarely get polled, and one that doesn't get polled often enough (ME) for a built-in complexity:

12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     KY     ME     SC
 
Approve              49%    37%    49%
Disapprove           47     60     47
DK/NA                 4      3      4



Relating to the Senate:

 
10-11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - (KY) Rand Paul, Mitch McConnell / (ME) Angus King, Susan Collins / (SC) Tim Scott, Lindsey Graham - is handling [his/her] job as United States Senator?
                     KY..............     ME............       SC...........
                     Paul   McConnell     King   Collins       Scott  Graham
 
Approve              43%    46%           60%    43%           55%    43%
Disapprove           38     48            25     52            22     47
DK/NA                19      6            14      6            22     10

McConnell, Collins, and Graham are the ones up for re-election, and they are clearly behind the Senators not up for re-election this time, and all three are underwater in approval.

 

 https://poll.qu.edu/2020-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=3670

This is hideous for Trump. It's likely an exaggeration. To be sure, only 200 in the sample... but if such a sample size is too small for Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, such a sample size is adequate for Iowa:


Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
NEW @davidbinder / @focusonrural (D) Poll (7/30-31):

IOWA:
Biden 49% (+6)
Trump 43%
.
MICHIGAN:
Biden 51% (+10)
Trump 41%
.
WISCONSIN:
Biden 53% (+11)
Trump 42%
.
MINNESOTA:
Biden 54% (+18)
Trump 36%
12:22 PM · Aug 6, 2020

Utah, Hinckley Institute (associated, I assume, with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. a/k/a the Mormons:

Trump approval 55 (strong 36, somewhat 19)
Trump disapproval 43 approve (strong 36, somewhat 7)

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/8/6/21357209/donald-trump-holding-onto-lead-over-joe-biden-in-utah-deseret-news-hinckley-institute-poll

...I get to re-introduce the deep blue for a state in which Trump has a 55% or higher approval. But even here, strong disapproval is just slightly (if insignificant statistically) higher than strong approval. This is about the shakiest 55% support that I can imagine, as Trump is so polarizing that "slight approval" is usually very small. Trump will win Utah, but with an unusually low level of support in this usually strong-R state.

I can say this: there will be plenty of Utah voters who will vote for Trump yet not be disappointed when he loses.

Seat-of-the-pants handicapping for the Presidency:

AZ Biden 70 Trump 30
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 55 Trump 45
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 60 Trump 40
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Kentucky and South Carolina:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
KY Trump 65 Biden 35
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30
SC Trump 60 Biden 40
UT Trump 95 other alternatives 5

California? How many 9's after the decimal point?

This is the first time in a long time in which I give Biden a stronger chance in Iowa than Trump. It is not an approval poll, but I can't imagine Trump having a positive approval rating with this Iowa split.

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

Trump is tracking 48/42 in Rassy polls, we have 3 debates and a Veep selection.  Pelosi wants 600 unemployment benefits and the Rs have blocked it

QU is still using RV, not LV

Biden isnt winning AK or AR either Sullivan is ahead by 13

[pbrower2a]

Which narrative do you wish to believe? People who believed a certain narrative thought that Donald Trump was charmed enough to win despite so many people loathing him. People blinded by their contempt for Trump (in my case that contempt has proved itself an understatement in my current view of him), Trump was going to lose because nobody but an utter fool could support someone that awful. Hillary Clinton's "Basket of Deplorable(s)" was much larger than many of us thought.

Trump is tracking 48/42 in Rassy polls, we have 3 debates and a Veep selection.  Pelosi wants 600 unemployment benefits and the Rs have blocked it

QU is still using RV, not LV

Biden isnt winning AK or AR either Sullivan is ahead by 13

Sullivan is facing a weak challenger. He could do far better than Donald Trump. This is an approval poll for the President, and it is possible for an incumbent Senator doing far better than his Party's nominee in the general election (see Pryor in Arkansas and Collins in Maine in 2008).   

...Yes, I consider the approval numbers in Arkansas as a freak.  I have seen some surprisingly-weak approval numbers for the President in states bordering Texas (Texas does have a short border with Arkansas), Louisiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Tennessee -- and near-neighboring Kansas and Kentucky. (OK, Illinois is a near-neighbor, but that does not count).

As I recall the poll in Arkansas was by Hendrix University, a very right-wing school that usually gives very favorable results for Republicans. It is on the margin at 48-50, and it could as easily be 48-50, which would be medium-blue on the map. Know that and you will not be so troubled.

Biden is not going to win Arkansas. Know well: this is an approval map and not a match-up map. 

[pbrower2a]

Hawaii:



Yes, I would expect Joe Biden to get over 60% of the vote in Hawaii.


Kansas, PPP for Emily's List:

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable 47%
Unfavorable 45%
Not sure 8%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Donald Trump’s job performance?
Approve 48%
Disapprove 45%
Not sure 7%

(at this point favorability and approval mean about the same for a President within three months of his re-election bid)

Q4 If the election for President were held today,
and the candidates were Democrat Joe Biden
and Republican Donald Trump, who would you
vote for?
Joe Biden 43%
Donald Trump 50%
Not sure 7%

2% more than approval if one ignores the "not sure". Figuring that undecided voters trend ineffectively toward the eventual loser, if I were to make any guess about Kansas in the Presidential election if I had only this poll, I would expect Trump to win 53-47.

The Senate race looks surprisingly close:

 Q7 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Democrat Barbara Bollier and Republican
Roger Marshall. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Barbara Bollier 42%
Roger Marshall 43%
Not sure 15%

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/KansasMemoResultsAug20.pdf

All bets are off with these numbers.


Freakishly weak for any Republican nominee for President in Kansas, which last went D in 1964.

The Senatorial vote looks to be decided by a razor-thin margin, which may be good news for Republicans who could have lost this seat more readily had Kobach won the primary. Putting Kansas in any category other than "Strong Republican" for either the Presidency or for the Senate bodes ill for the GOP.

I once quipped that Texas votes as if it were Kansas grafted onto Florida... that may be closer to the truth than I could have ever foreseen, and unusually relevant this year. .

An oddity: lots of people seem to forget how they voted in 2016:

Q8 In the 2016 election for President, did you vote
for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary
Clinton, someone else, or did you not vote in
the election?
Donald Trump 53%
Hillary Clinton 35%
Someone else / Did not vote 12%

(Kansas went 56 Trump, 35 Clinton, 7 others in 2016).  



Seat-of-the-pants handicapping for the Presidency:

AZ Biden 70 Trump 30
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 55 Trump 45
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 60 Trump 40
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Kansas:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
KS Trump 65 Biden 35
KY Trump 65 Biden 35
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30
SC Trump 60 Biden 40
UT Trump 95 other alternatives 5

California? How many 9's after the decimal point?

This is the first time in a long time in which I give Biden a stronger chance in Iowa than Trump. It is not an approval poll, but I can't imagine Trump having a positive approval rating with this Iowa split.

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgetown University, Aug. 1-6, 1000 LV

Approve 42
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 51

Biden 53, Trump 40

GCB: D 50, R 44

This looks like a very D-friendly sample (46/39 Clinton/Trump voters)

[pbrower2a]

Many people may be forgetting already that they voted for Donald Trump, which is one way with which to deal with a regretted error.. 48% of the electorate voted for Hillary Clinton in 2012.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maine: RMG Research for U.S. Term Limits, July 27-Aug. 2, 500 RV

Approve 42
Disapprove 56

Strongly approve 25
Strongly disapprove 46

Biden 50, Trump 39

Gideon 48, Collins 41

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Uh oh, Trump leads in AZ by 1 pt, when you include 3rd party candidate.

I knew I was right on Fri that the polls were closing but other polls showed the opposite.  It's a 278 race and WI and PA are gonna be close

[Progressive Pessimist]

Uh oh, Trump leads in AZ by 1 pt, when you include 3rd party candidate.

I knew I was right on Fri that the polls were closing but other polls showed the opposite.  It's a 278 race and WI and PA are gonna be close

It's Trafalgar though.