Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Soooo Rassy posted on Twitter that Trump has a 26% approval rating amongst Democrats and I pointed out that they were the only pollster that had the GOP winning the 2018 midterms... they blocked me two minutes later.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Soooo Rassy posted on Twitter that Trump has a 26% approval rating amongst Democrats and I pointed out that they were the only pollster that had the GOP winning the 2018 midterms... they blocked me two minutes later.

Just like their snowflake idol would.

Lol they don’t even hide it anymore. Their tweets are super targeted. They tweeted this to Mike Cernovich saying that it meant impeachment was failing.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Impeachment is backfiring on the Dems, the Dems can still win, but it probably is a neutral election cycle not a wave election and if it's a 2016 election,  in a neutral election, Trump can win Wiz. Dems are nominating a corrupt Hilary in Biden, again

I said this was gonna happen, but I hoped I was wrong

Because of one poll from a C-grade pollster?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Dec. 9-10, 1116 adults including 945 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

Impeach Trump: Yes 45 (+1), No 41 (-1)


RV:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+2)

Impeach Trump: Yes 47 (+2), No 42 (-3)

"Impeachment is a disaster!!"

- Atlas after the Firehouse poll

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

interesting. looks like these was a significant drop in impeachment support amongst democrats. I guess the shine wore off. could also just be holiday ambivalence.

Here's another possible reason:

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1206750770730872832

Once again, the media creates a narrative rather than reporting on the facts. Same mistakes they made with Clinton in 2016 and they never learned.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Military Times poll of Trump’s favorable rating amongst service members-

Favorable: 42% (-2)
Unfavorable: 50% (+7)

Surprisingly matches what his national approval rating is now.

The change is from October 2018.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2019/12/17/half-of-active-duty-service-members-are-unhappy-with-trump-new-military-times-poll-shows/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

I just kind of felt like reaffirming my point that Holiday bumps are a real thing. If Trump is currently in one is a matter of debate, but Obama got one every year between Thanksgiving and New Years.

Yup. The 538 approval comparison shows that Bush got a pretty big bump at this exact time as well.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

I just kind of felt like reaffirming my point that Holiday bumps are a real thing. If Trump is currently in one is a matter of debate, but Obama got one every year between Thanksgiving and New Years.

Yup. The 538 approval comparison shows that Bush got a pretty big bump at this exact time as well.

All that aside, his approval should be well north of 45% just based on this:

I’m not sure many Americans are paying attention to the S&P especially with impeachment...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Iowa: PPP, Dec. 13-15, 944 voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 51

Generic D 49, Trump 47

How many more quality polls showing Trump within the MoE do we need before we can declare Iowa a tossup, or at least lean R?

Since when has Atlas ever had it at anything other than a Tossup/Tilt/Lean R?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Arizona: PPP, Jan. 2-4, 760 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

Biden 46, Trump 46
Trump 47, Sanders 46
Trump 47, Warren 45
Trump 47, Buttigieg 44


Iowa: PPP, Dec, 29-31, 964 voters

Approve 48
Disapprove 48

This seems unusually high for Trump compared to other Iowa polls.

Trump 49, Buttigieg 48
Trump 49, Biden 46
Trump 49, Sanders 44,
Warren 49, Sanders 44

That’s the path for Trump. Never Trumpers come home and Never Hillary voters stay home.

It's ridiculous of you to assume any Democrat is going to sit home this time... especially after what happened four years ago. This election is going to have record turnout.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Realistic numbers from Nevada? Pinch me.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Everyone keeps saying PA is redder than MI and WI and they can never back up their claim.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 26-28, 1500 adults including 1182 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 47 (+2), No 41 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 44 (+1), No 43 (+1)


RV:

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+2)

Strongly approve 31 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50 (+2), No 45 (-2)

Remove Trump: Yes 47 (+2), No 46 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (+2), Trump 41 (-3)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+4), R 39 (-4)

Thank God the GCB number bounced back.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Voter enthusiasm swings towards the GOP: https://apnews.com/4daf1b154eeff75b97b886e2fe8c1d29

Basically, Trump will equal or better his electoral landslide of 2016.

66% of Democrats are anxious about the election compared to just 46% for the Republicans. That's a big plus imo.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That R sample is way too high...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The fact that 48% of the sample is Republican throws the whole thing out.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Are we really not going to make a big deal out of the fact they way oversampled Republicans?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Gallup is one of the oldest and longest-established polling companies in this country, and are pioneers in the profession. I wouldn't completely discount what they say here.

48% of Americans are not registered Republicans.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Approval 53%  (62% after adjustments)
Disapproval: Unknown


Source: Your favorite President
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1226835190569414657

As far as I know, the only times Trump has ever hit as high as 53% is a couple of daily Rasmussen samples (one in April, one in September).  Not even Zogby or McLaughlin has had him that high.

Notice how he, again, doesn't cite a pollster.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wouldn't read a lot (in either direction) into turnout for a primary in which there's an incumbent with no significant challengers.

Trump actually held a rally just before the Republican primary, which is unusual. Obama didn't. Obama seemed not to like wasting Presidential time or government funds.

What I noticed was that 9.1% of the Republican primary vote went to William Weld and a small number to write-ins, indicating that many Republicans have cold feet about Trump.

Let us put it this way -- the Democrats together got 296,622 votes, which is fewer than 50K away from what Hillary Clinton won in 2016.   

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227716314409709569

Trump literally campaigned in New Hampshire the night before.

Agreed. The pundits are putting way too much stock in these numbers.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://mobile.twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1228050978039095306

Exactly. The media keeps portraying Trump as this magnificent unstoppable force when he's not. The GOP lost the midterm elections by the biggest margin since Watergate and he had a 46% approval rating at the time.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fox News, Feb. 23-26, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

This is Trump's best showing in this poll since the early months of his Presidency.

Economy Approval went down, though. First effect of coronavirus? I expect his approval to go down as well.

Economy Approval:
54 (-2)
42 (+4)

The Trump economy has always been a piper tiger. He inherited an objectively good economy and has done nothing to impact it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It’s still too early to see any effects of the virus on his approval. Most polls about him and the virus have him in good territory.

Citation needed.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PPP: March 2-3, 866 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

I don't see a recent prior from PPP for comparison.

Trump gets a 42/51% (-9) disapproval for his handling of the coronavirus outbreak so far.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MAR 20-23, 2020
Global Strategy Group/GBAO
1,038 RV
https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Navigator-Daily-Tracker-Topline-F03.23.20.pdf


Approve 47 (+6)
Disapprove 49 (-7)


Corona:
Approve 52 (+10)
Disapprove 42 (-7)


Economy:
53/43

This just shows how fluid the situation is. There's no way he has a +10 approval on the economy when we're literally about to hit a recession

It's not Trump's fault, obviously. People are not stupid to blame Trump for this.

History is not on your side, my friend.