Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Uh oh, Trump leads in AZ by 1 pt, when you include 3rd party candidate.

I knew I was right on Fri that the polls were closing but other polls showed the opposite.  It's a 278 race and WI and PA are gonna be close

It's Trafalgar though.

Larry Sabato, Cook and Nate Silver has it 278 to 260 not 413 and Ds get 51 Senate seats not 60. A 413 EC map and 60 Seat .

That was ridiculous anyway, and Ds should not be surprise that they dont win TX either

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: PPP, July 30-31, 934 RV

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Biden 49, Trump 46

Cunningham 48, Tillis 44

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina: PPP, July 30-31, 934 RV

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Biden 49, Trump 46

Cunningham 48, Tillis 44

Further damage to the standing of Trump may be unlikely. He has his hard core of support that can excuse much.



Seat-of-the-pants handicapping for the Presidency:

AZ Biden 70 Trump 30
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 55 Trump 45
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 60 Trump 40
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Kansas:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
KS Trump 65 Biden 35
KY Trump 65 Biden 35
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30
SC Trump 60 Biden 40
UT Trump 95 other alternatives 5

California? How many 9's after the decimal point?

This is the first time in a long time in which I give Biden a stronger chance in Iowa than Trump. It is not an approval poll, but I can't imagine Trump having a positive approval rating with this Iowa split.

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[woodley park]

Trump continues to flail desperately, and has lost almost every news cycle for the last several weeks. Still unclear to me how he turns things around.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina: PPP, July 30-31, 934 RV

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Biden 49, Trump 46

Cunningham 48, Tillis 44

Seat-of-the-pants handicapping for the Presidency:

AZ Biden 70 Trump 30
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 55 Trump 45
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 60 Trump 40
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Kansas:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
KS Trump 65 Biden 35
KY Trump 65 Biden 35
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30
SC Trump 60 Biden 40
UT Trump 95 other alternatives 5

California? How many 9's after the decimal point?

This is the first time in a long time in which I give Biden a stronger chance in Iowa than Trump. It is not an approval poll, but I can't imagine Trump having a positive approval rating with this Iowa split.

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a feeling the EC map, Gov map and Senate map will line up perfectly.

NC, MT and KS will go D rather than AZ or IA. Cunningham have had double digit leads in every poll and Kelly only been leading by 5 pts. Bollier will play spoiler in KS and Cooney will help Bullock beat Daines

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 9-11, 1500 adults including 1208 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-1)


RV:

Approve 44 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 39 (-1)

GCB: D 49 (-1), R 39 (+1)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I take these approvals with a grain of Salt, Pelosi isnt gonna win reelection as Speaker if she holds up the stimulus bill indefinitely.

That's why we have Rassy tracking polls too, which continue to has Trump where Bush W was at in 2004 at 48/42

And Bush W hit 51 on Election day

[emailking]

It's a 278 race though so it doesn't matter, Biden still wins.

[pbrower2a]

WBUR, NPR- Boston. Massachusetts

Margins shown. The only negative margin for Biden is from registered Republicans.

[GP270watch]

If Democrats turn out they win. If they don't and think there is some great re-alignment going on against Trump, they're damn fools.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Aug. 10-11, 1215 adults including 1034 RV


Adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

Biden 44 (+1), Trump 37 (nc)

When undecided/3rd-party pushed: Biden 56 (+2), Trump 43 (-2)


RV:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 57 (-2)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

Biden 49 (+1), Trump 38 (nc)

Pushed: Biden 58 (+2), Trump 42 (-2)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH and IA will vote R, just like in 2016 and 18, NC, NM and KS are the new Bellwethers now, that's why Bollier is competetive against Marshall

[woodley park]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Aug. 10-11, 1215 adults including 1034 RV


Adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

Biden 44 (+1), Trump 37 (nc)

When undecided/3rd-party pushed: Biden 56 (+2), Trump 43 (-2)


RV:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 57 (-2)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

Biden 49 (+1), Trump 38 (nc)

Pushed: Biden 58 (+2), Trump 42 (-2)

Pretty awful for Trump, across the board. Wow, its almost like it matters that there's over 5 million COVID cases and nearly 170,000 deaths, all amidst a racial reckoning and high unemployment. Who would have thought that something like that would make a difference for a racist incumbent?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth: August 6-10, 868 adults including 785 RV (change from late June)

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)


RV:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, Aug. 9-12, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 42 (+1)

Interesting question: how committed are you to voting for (your candidate):

Biden supporters:
   Extremely 73
   Very 16
   Somewhat 10
   Not at all -

Trump supporters:
   Extremely 66
   Very 21
   Somewhat 12
   Not at all 1

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Fox News, Aug. 9-12, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 42 (+1)

Interesting question: how committed are you to voting for (your candidate):

Biden supporters:
   Extremely 73
   Very 16
   Somewhat 10
   Not at all -

Trump supporters:
   Extremely 66
   Very 21
   Somewhat 12
   Not at all 1

I'm wary of these types of "all the time, a lot, frequently, sometimes, rarely, never"-type queries simply because the difference between someone who answered "very" and someone who answered "extremely" can be quite thin. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/Marist, Aug. 3-11, 1261 adults including 1118 RV

Adults (change from late July):

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-4)


RV (change from late June):

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-3)

Biden 53 (+1), Trump 42 (-2)

GCB: D 49, R 43

[woodley park]

NPR/Marist, Aug. 3-11, 1261 adults including 1118 RV

Adults (change from late July):

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-4)


RV (change from late June):

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-3)

Biden 53 (+1), Trump 42 (-2)

GCB: D 49, R 43

Am I correct that 538 consider Marist to be an A+ pollster? Does that include when they work with NPR?

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/Marist, Aug. 3-11, 1261 adults including 1118 RV

Adults (change from late July):

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-4)


RV (change from late June):

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-3)

Biden 53 (+1), Trump 42 (-2)

GCB: D 49, R 43

Am I correct that 538 consider Marist to be an A+ pollster? Does that include when they work with NPR?

Yes and yes.

[pbrower2a]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Aug. 10-11, 1215 adults including 1034 RV


Adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

Biden 44 (+1), Trump 37 (nc)

When undecided/3rd-party pushed: Biden 56 (+2), Trump 43 (-2)


RV:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 57 (-2)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

Biden 49 (+1), Trump 38 (nc)

Pushed: Biden 58 (+2), Trump 42 (-2)

Pretty awful for Trump, across the board. Wow, its almost like it matters that there's over 5 million COVID cases and nearly 170,000 deaths, all amidst a racial reckoning and high unemployment. Who would have thought that something like that would make a difference for a racist incumbent?

There are people who believe that Trump's racism is abominable and consider such good cause to not vote to re-elect him. There are people who believe that Trump's response to COVID-19 is abominable and consider such good cause to not vote to re-elect him. There are people who believe that Trump's economic policies are abominable and consider such good cause to not vote to re-elect him. There are people who believe that Trump's misogyny is abominable and consider such good cause to not vote to re-elect him.

Those are the same people. Trump still has his base the people would still vote for him if he invaded Canada.  We speak of his base, but maybe we should start speaking of his anti-base, people who either have never supported him or have come to think him an unmitigated disaster. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, Aug. 9-12, 900 RV (1-month change)

Approve 44 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-3)

Strongly approve 33 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 47 (-3)

Biden 50 (-1), Trump 41 (+1)

GCB: D 47 (nc), R 42 (-1)

Note: This is typically one of the most favorable high-quality polls for Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: East Carolina University, Aug. 12-13, 1255 RV

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Biden 47, Trump 47

Cunningham 44, Tillis 40

Cooper 52, Forest 38

[pbrower2a]

This is what a nine-point lead by Joe Biden looks nationally:

CBS/YouGov. Match-ups for all fifty states and Dee Cee.


State by state on the map:

Biden edge 10% or higher   saturation 70%
Biden edge 5-9% with at least 50% saturation 50%
Biden edge less than 5% but at least 50% saturation 40%
Biden edge but short of 50% saturation 20%

tie -- white

Trump edge with less than 50% saturation 20% (there is no such state this time)
Trump edge less than 5% but with at least 50% saturation 30
Trump edge 5-9%   but at least 50% saturation 50
Trump edge 10% or higher saturation 70

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-donald-trump-opinion-poll-08-16-2020/

Note well that Biden is winning every state that Hillary Clinton won with a margin of at least 10%. He is up by at least 5% in the critical states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CNN has it Biden plus 4, a 279 map and a tied Senate isnt far fetched that Cook political analyst has it, anyways