UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[EastAnglianLefty]

The point was that the PLP had been warned off using the phrase, he deliberately tried to find the most innocuous context to use it in, and the decision was made to throw the book at him anyway to show that they really weren't kidding. Posturing all round.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah he deliberately tried to be "clever" and (unsurprisingly) the leadership didn't take kindly to it.

[Zinneke]

The point was that the PLP had been warned off using the phrase, he deliberately tried to find the most innocuous context to use it in, and the decision was made to throw the book at him anyway to show that they really weren't kidding. Posturing all round.

Surely a dashing smart lawyer like Mr Darcy understands this and thus doesn't suspend to prove that what he cares about is the intention and context of using the slogan. But yes you are right that trying to be clever about this isn't very mature either. I'd just ad that I do hope that "river to the sea" is a slogan that stops being hijacked by the absurd extremists on both sides.

[Joe Republic]

I'll just leave these here.

[TheTide]

I'll just leave these here.

It has been noted that one of Sunak's problems is that he's seen as being rich rather than posh. Posh people (such as Cameron, Blair and Johnson - all election winners as it happens) give off something of a class consciousness that makes them more acceptable to the ordinary folks. People who are merely rich don't tend to grasp their privilege to the same extent.

[CumbrianLefty]

There’s lots of reasons to think the NEC will use an election to purge the PLP of its more embarrassing members, overtly or otherwise (Coyle, Duffield, Begum to name a few) and fill safe/held seats with people loyal/reliable to the leadership. The only reasons not to are 1. The media backlash throwing off the campaign or 2. A fear that LOTO/L2W’s control of the party is less than total. Given the abject humiliations inflicted on the left in recent years, 2 seems unlikely to me.

I really think there’s an underestimation of how much the party leadership overlearned the lessons of Corbynism in general & specifically O’Mara/Onasanya and the degree to which they are trying to make sure the PLP is as rigid as possible.

Duffield, if she would shut up a bit, has value as a Sister Souhjah. As long as she exists in the parliamentary party, and is perceived as "protected" by the leadership, they can counter any backlash for any policies they do undertake. As it seems clear a Labour government will do a lot of things that will piss off Duffield's, erm, fan-base, keeping her around while also passing a Trans-inclusive conversion therapy-ban allows attention to be redirected as needed. Provided Duffield has an on/off button. That, of course, has been called into doubt.

The powerful media/activist lobby that vocally supports Duffield probably prevents her from being dumped by the leadership - but also eggs her on to say things she really shouldn't.

I do think there is some value in your analysis though.

[Alcibiades]

Humza Yousaf is expected to claim that the general election in Scotland will be a straight fight between the SNP and the Tories. The best part of his planned speech doesn’t come until the end of the linked article however:

Mr Yousaf is also expected to claim that Labour have "made it clear that Scotland is an afterthought" as they are "prepared to risk 100,000 Scottish jobs to build new nuclear power plants in England".

This is in reference to Sir Keir Starmer's plans to raise the windfall tax on fossil fuel firms from 75% of excess profits to 78%, while also extending it to 2029.

The SNP have promised to oppose these plans as they had prompted "extreme anger" from people in the north east of Scotland.

Truly, It’s Scotland’s Oil.

[Blair]

is there really this much political support behind the sector?

[Torrain]

Feel like this is Stephen Flynn’s doing. There’s really no reason for the SNP to end up to the right of both Labour and the Tories on oil and gas windfall taxation, unless the FM is being lobbied by the Member for Aberdeen South. It’ll only hurt them in the truly marginal urban seats across Edinburgh and Glasgow, where environmental sentiment is strongest.

Sure, there are guys who work on the North Sea oil rigs living across Scotland, but only enough to make a difference in Aberdeenshire. And if the SNP are winning a vote share in the 30s rather than 40s, they should be playing defence in the cities, rather than offence against Ross, Duguid and Bowie.

[CumbrianLefty]

It has been noted that one of Sunak's problems is that he's seen as being rich rather than posh. Posh people (such as Cameron, Blair and Johnson - all election winners as it happens) give off something of a class consciousness that makes them more acceptable to the ordinary folks. People who are merely rich don't tend to grasp their privilege to the same extent.

Never thought of it quite like that, but the above does make some sense.

[Blair]

Ah I see we’ve reached the annual ‘well I’ll just call an election then’ stage of internal Tory party coups.

Why do they want another term in power?

[CumbrianLefty]

To own the libs and lefties, of course.

To many in the current Tory party, there really is no higher calling.

[IceAgeComing]

We're into the 'but what do Lascelle's Principles say about a potential election' stage of this Tory leadership saga.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those of us interested in Edwardian politics have had another question answered. Why did Balfour go 'fuck it' and hand government over to the Liberals even before the 1906 GE?. Perhaps we now know.

[Silent Hunter]

Havering Council featured prominently on tonight's Panorama about council finances.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This advertisement for Sir Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister was paid for by the Conservative and Unionist Party.

[CumbrianLefty]

If the PM is going to change his mind about a 2nd May GE, tomorrow is the last practical day to do so.

[Torrain]

The Lords are voting on the Rwanda bill again. Tories had been briefing that they finally had the numbers to pass it unamended - bragging about getting every member of the landed gentry, every former cabinet minister out to vote… only to lose their first vote of the day by 45, once again amending and moderating the bill.

Ping-pong continues… at least for another week, possibly until after Easter, depending on how the calendar shakes out.

Six months ago, No.10 were playing with the idea of a populist “stop the boats election” if the Lords “thwarted the will of the British people”. Assume that threat is long dead - but if a podium emerges at any point in the next 48 hours, SW1 will presumably go into total meltdown.

Either way - fun backdrop for Sunak’s address to the 1922 tonight…

[AustralianSwingVoter]

At this rate would Keir be the first Labour PM to have less trouble with the Lords than the preceding Tory government had? Between Brexit, Norn Ireland, Rwanda, that River Pollution thing they’ve had plenty of problems.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak's address last night had *lots* of cheering and desk banging.

Maybe the surest proof yet that he is in a bit of a tricky spot.

[CityofSinners]

Nobody prominent wants to take over a party that is 20 points behind and deeply divided. Sunak is decently safe for lack of alternative.

Only if the local elections go horrible is there a chance of him being deposed.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm starting to think the reform bounce means sunak may be dumped. I'm not particularly convinced that Reform is intended to be a real party but an external pressure group on the conservative party. If we start seeing "shock polls" putting reform on a similar level as the conservative party, the party will move out of self-preservation to restore the same sort of unofficial pact that Reform's predecessor parties often had, which would almost assuredly involve ditching sunak for somone on the Right.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/JonnElledge/status/1770880447586734334

[Torrain]

I’ve resisted writing a… less succinct version of that sentiment on this forum, several times.

The Greens resist the building of solar and wind farms, and deplore nuclear as much as they do oil and gas, possibly more. Can’t shake the sense that there’s no real logic to their plans, it’s all just NIMBYism under hippy window dressing.

And that’s not even addressing their transport policy! No more rail lines, that might be noisy or cut down some nice trees. No electric cars, they need batteries that require heavy metals. Guess we should all stay in our diesel cars and drive to work. Only they also oppose expanding/repairing road infrastructure too… see the A9 debacle.

And that’s before we even get to the whole degrowth thing - imagine being a political party promising permanent recession, and actually winning seats.

[Hnv1]

I’ve resisted writing a… less succinct version of that sentiment on this forum, several times.

The Greens resist the building of solar and wind farms, and deplore nuclear as much as they do oil and gas, possibly more. Can’t shake the sense that there’s no real logic to their plans, it’s all just NIMBYism under hippy window dressing.

And that’s not even addressing their transport policy! No more rail lines, that might be noisy or cut down some nice trees. No electric cars, they need batteries that require heavy metals. Guess we should all stay in our diesel cars and drive to work. Only they also oppose expanding/repairing road infrastructure too… see the A9 debacle.

And that’s before we even get to the whole degrowth thing - imagine being a political party promising permanent recession, and actually winning seats.

Well they win a seat, never in plural