Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[MATTROSE94]

The truth is that Youngkin could  win and this will be within 5 or 6 points either way maximum. This is the only major race the GOP has a shot at this year so expect them to fight hard for it.

Larry Elder had a 50-50 shot and Jack Ciattarelli has a non-zero chance as well.

Emphasis on this word. That is not the case anymore.

And while I'll agree with you on Ciatarelli, technically, it's still barely 5% at best.

My blurb about Larry Elder aged well lol. Still, I am thinking that Phil Murphy will only win by 8% due to a backlash against his COVID policies among Jews, Catholics, and African American and Hispanic non essential business owners in Newark, Trenton, Elizabeth, Paterson, and Camden. Additionally, Glenn Trumpkin seems to be gaining quite a bit of ground lately due to the fact that the Republicans are likely going to get a pretty big dead cat bounce in NOVA.

I don't mean to derail this thread with NJ stuff, but where is the concrete evidence of this? NJ has actually been doing very well with COVID since last year when Murphy took restrictions, and seems most people in the state are supportive of the measures he's taken, especially given COVID being under control in the state and things still being able to be open.

A lot of Orthodox Jewish voters and Traditionalist Catholic voters in Monmouth and Ocean County despise Phil Murphy over the fact that he placed stringent capacity restrictions on houses of worship. Additionally, the capacity restrictions and closure of non essential businesses seemed to have severely impacted African Americans and Hispanics in larger cities in New Jersey (an overwhelming majority of African Americans and Hispanics that I know are owners of non essential businesses). Because of these factors, Jack Ciatarelli should easily win Monmouth and Ocean County by 10% and 50% respectively and could bring the Democratic margins in the larger cities back to the levels they were in the 1981 New Jersey Gubernatorial election.

[jamestroll]

https://winslowastro.com/2021/09/06/glenn-youngkin-will-a-business-manager-become-virginia-governor/

Astrologer thinks Youngkin will fall a little bit short..

[Non Swing Voter]

https://winslowastro.com/2021/09/06/glenn-youngkin-will-a-business-manager-become-virginia-governor/

Astrologer thinks Youngkin will fall a little bit short..

WTF?

[wbrocks67]

As of 9/21
In-person early votes: 26,473
Mail votes: 3,226

For reference, the final total in 2017 was
In-person early votes: 118,124
Mail votes: 77,510

[Skill and Chance]

As of 9/21
In-person early votes: 26,473
Mail votes: 3,226

For reference, the final total in 2017 was
In-person early votes: 118,124
Mail votes: 77,510

VA had an excuse-only system until 2020.  The excuses included stuff like primary caregiver for a relative and working in a different city/county than you live in (probably a majority of the D.C. area), so eligibility was pretty broad. 

[jamestroll]

Neutral astrology with no birth times suggest the GOP would be slightly favored to win the governorship. However, if that public birth time for Glenn Trumpkin is correct, it is difficult to see him winning.

[beaver2.0]

Do you think Mac would be doing better if he went by Terence? 

[Non Swing Voter]

As of 9/21
In-person early votes: 26,473
Mail votes: 3,226

For reference, the final total in 2017 was
In-person early votes: 118,124
Mail votes: 77,510

not particularly huge, though I don't expect it to be.

Do we know where these early votes are coming from?  That would be much more telling.

[wbrocks67]

As of 9/21
In-person early votes: 26,473
Mail votes: 3,226

For reference, the final total in 2017 was
In-person early votes: 118,124
Mail votes: 77,510

not particularly huge, though I don't expect it to be.

Do we know where these early votes are coming from?  That would be much more telling.

New Data as of today:

35,979 early in person votes
5,234 voted by mail
= 41,213 total early votes

VA-01: 5,198 (4,660 IEP/538 mail)
VA-02: 3,820 (3,187 IEP/633 mail)
VA-03: 2,198 (2,103 IEP/95 mail)
VA-04: 4,464 (4,018 IEP/446 mail)
VA-05: 4,048 (3,556 IEP/492 mail)
VA-06: 4,612 (3,566 IEP/1,046 mail)
VA-07: 4,822 (4,192 IEP/630 mail)
VA-08: 2,689 (2,631 IEP/58 mail)
VA-09: 3,326 (2,352 IEP/974 mail)
VA-10: 3,634 (3,476 IEP/158 mail)
VA-11: 2,402 (2,238 IEP/164 mail)

[Matty]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

[Virginiá]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

Significantly.

51.99% D to 47.23% R

[Suburbia]

McAuliffe can't be too cocky, he has to act like he is 10 points behind

[Roll Roons]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

Significantly.

51.99% D to 47.23% R

Bear in mind that Griffith in VA-09 was unopposed, while the GOP ran candidates in every district, skewing numbers slightly.

[jamestroll]

if youngkin wins I will literally roll around on the ground and scream angrily!!!

[Matty]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

Significantly.

51.99% D to 47.23% R

Bear in mind that Griffith in VA-09 was unopposed, while the GOP ran candidates in every district, skewing numbers slightly.

If you adjust for that, what does the margin look like?

It makes so much more sense to compare the 2021 gov result to the 2020 house results

[slothdem]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

Significantly.

51.99% D to 47.23% R

Bear in mind that Griffith in VA-09 was unopposed, while the GOP ran candidates in every district, skewing numbers slightly.

If you adjust for that, what does the margin look like?

It makes so much more sense to compare the 2021 gov result to the 2020 house results

If you adjust for Griffith running unopposed, the margin is similar to Biden/Trump, but slightly better for the GOP. The improvement is solely the result of Biden keeping VA-01 close (4 point loss) while Wittman crushed his opponent (a twitter progressive with a muslim name). All races besides 01/09 had extremely close margins to the presidential.

[Spectator]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

Significantly.

51.99% D to 47.23% R

Bear in mind that Griffith in VA-09 was unopposed, while the GOP ran candidates in every district, skewing numbers slightly.

If you adjust for that, what does the margin look like?

It makes so much more sense to compare the 2021 gov result to the 2020 house results

Around 7-8%. All the NOVA Democrats ran behind Biden by small to significant amounts (Wittman’s opponent). However, Luria and Spanberger were nominally ahead of Biden.

[Spectator]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

Significantly.

51.99% D to 47.23% R

Bear in mind that Griffith in VA-09 was unopposed, while the GOP ran candidates in every district, skewing numbers slightly.

If you adjust for that, what does the margin look like?

It makes so much more sense to compare the 2021 gov result to the 2020 house results

If you adjust for Griffith running unopposed, the margin is similar to Biden/Trump, but slightly better for the GOP. The improvement is solely the result of Biden keeping VA-01 close (4 point loss) while Wittman crushed his opponent (a twitter progressive with a muslim name). All races besides 01/09 had extremely close margins to the presidential.

Wexton did poorly compared to Biden, too. No one noticed though since she still won by double digits.

[Non Swing Voter]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

Significantly.

51.99% D to 47.23% R

Bear in mind that Griffith in VA-09 was unopposed, while the GOP ran candidates in every district, skewing numbers slightly.

If you adjust for that, what does the margin look like?

It makes so much more sense to compare the 2021 gov result to the 2020 house results

If you adjust for Griffith running unopposed, the margin is similar to Biden/Trump, but slightly better for the GOP. The improvement is solely the result of Biden keeping VA-01 close (4 point loss) while Wittman crushed his opponent (a twitter progressive with a muslim name). All races besides 01/09 had extremely close margins to the presidential.

Wexton did poorly compared to Biden, too. No one noticed though since she still won by double digits.

That's because she's significantly more liberal than the district.  She's my congresswoman.  She basically runs like she's in one of the other 2 NOVA districts even though this one is a bit less liberal.  Not too liberal to win easily though.

[Non Swing Voter]

if youngkin wins I will literally roll around on the ground and scream angrily!!!

Well sounds like you won't be rolling around on the ground and screaming angrily then.

[Spectator]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

Significantly.

51.99% D to 47.23% R

Bear in mind that Griffith in VA-09 was unopposed, while the GOP ran candidates in every district, skewing numbers slightly.

If you adjust for that, what does the margin look like?

It makes so much more sense to compare the 2021 gov result to the 2020 house results

If you adjust for Griffith running unopposed, the margin is similar to Biden/Trump, but slightly better for the GOP. The improvement is solely the result of Biden keeping VA-01 close (4 point loss) while Wittman crushed his opponent (a twitter progressive with a muslim name). All races besides 01/09 had extremely close margins to the presidential.

Wexton did poorly compared to Biden, too. No one noticed though since she still won by double digits.

That's because she's significantly more liberal than the district.  She's my congresswoman.  She basically runs like she's in one of the other 2 NOVA districts even though this one is a bit less liberal.  Not too liberal to win easily though.

Or because there’s still a big bloc of voters that still haven’t shifted their voting habits downballot yet. She isn’t much more liberal than Biden is. It’s normal for there to be a lag in voting patterns. You can see this in Democrats doing better than Biden in many rural Midwestern House seats, or in Republicans doing a lot better than Trump in newly blue suburban seats in California, Georgia, Texas, and Virginia.

[Progressive Pessimist]

if youngkin wins I will literally roll around on the ground and scream angrily!!!

Well sounds like you won't be rolling around on the ground and screaming angrily then.

But didn't you see his astrological prediction?

I completely forgot that jimmie does that.

It reminds me of my sister. She had a crystal pendulum and to try and get me interested in it she did a prediction of the 2020 election. She told me that Sanders would defeat Trump...yeah. It's only slightly less reliable than the average poll though, to be fair.

[Non Swing Voter]

if youngkin wins I will literally roll around on the ground and scream angrily!!!

Well sounds like you won't be rolling around on the ground and screaming angrily then.

But didn't you see his astrological prediction?

I completely forgot that jimmie does that.

It reminds me of my sister. She had a crystal pendulum and to try and get me interested in it she did a prediction of the 2020 election. She told me that Sanders would defeat Trump...yeah. It's only slightly less reliable than the average poll though, to be fair.

Really sad fact.  Pollsters have one job.  Imagine if everyone failed at their job so hard.  Society wouldn't function.

[wbrocks67]

Naturally, RCP couldn't wait to put the Youngkin +5 poll in their average.

[Devils30]

It's really hard to square the CA recall numbers in Orange County with the idea that Youngkin is close enough in NoVA to make this a real race.