Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Person Man]

They probably just added a McLaughlin and Associates poll. They also had Republicans winning in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The public is divided Criminal Justice Reform and the continuing partial shutdown due to Covid and Trump high points on economy.   Not to mention Ukraine and Reade Biden has been knocked off front page due to Covid.  We must factor that in all the polls that keep coming out, with Trafalgar and Secular media polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hate to go back on my words, but Trafalgar has Trump ahead by 2  pts in MI, it's not over yet.

There are 3 factors Criminal Justice, the declining unemployment due to job fairs are hiring and Ukraine and Reade Biden

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Michigan Trump +2

C’mon, man! 😂

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump leads in MI, now Trump is leading in natl polls, that Raasy poll that showed Biden only up 1 was onto something

Maybe Covid 19 did help Rs, this isnt 2008 anymore

[President Johnson]

Trump leads in MI, now Trump is leading in natl polls, that Raasy poll that showed Biden only up 1 was onto something

Maybe Covid 19 did help Rs, this isnt 2008 anymore

It's a Republican trash pollster not backed up by any credible polls and the national average. Trump's campaign has essentially abandoned Michigan at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump leads in MI, now Trump is leading in natl polls, that Raasy poll that showed Biden only up 1 was onto something

Maybe Covid 19 did help Rs, this isnt 2008 anymore

It's a Republican trash pollster not backed up by any credible polls and the national average. Trump's campaign has essentially abandoned Michigan at this point.

It's not Biden plus 10, 12 or 13 either. Biden is now going to MI, WI and Pa and do in person campaigns

[pbrower2a]

Trump leads in MI, now Trump is leading in natl polls, that Raasy poll that showed Biden only up 1 was onto something

Maybe Covid 19 did help Rs, this isnt 2008 anymore

Such is traditional for Labor Day for a Democrat. .

It's a Republican trash pollster not backed up by any credible polls and the national average. Trump's campaign has essentially abandoned Michigan at this point.

It's not Biden plus 10, 12 or 13 either. Biden is now going to MI, WI and Pa and do in person campaigns

[pbrower2a]

Massachusetts (two polls from one of the most non-swing states on the Democratic side):

Biden 64%
Trump 25%

Trump approval: 18/77
Warren approval: 53/40
Markey approval: 58/39
Baker approval: 84/15

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1W_G_VUFEgvJOUbeYv81h4xKiip50Snbu/view

Should Trump be re-elected, Massachusetts residents might start deprecating what will then be the nonsense of 1775 and 1776. Was George III ever that unpopular in Boston in the mid-1770's?

If Massachusetts were an independent republic with Trump as President it would be vulnerable to a coup.

Biden 69.4%
Trump 30.6%

Trump approval: 29/67
Baker approval: 66/19

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/massachusetts-2020-senator-markey-takes-lead-in-senate-primary-over-congressman-kennedy

Not quite as dreadful... maybe the difference between losing a baseball game 22-1 and losing 9-1.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump leads in MI, now Trump is leading in natl polls, that Raasy poll that showed Biden only up 1 was onto something

Maybe Covid 19 did help Rs, this isnt 2008 anymore

Such is traditional for Labor Day for a Democrat. .

It's a Republican trash pollster not backed up by any credible polls and the national average. Trump's campaign has essentially abandoned Michigan at this point.

It's not Biden plus 10, 12 or 13 either. Biden is now going to MI, WI and Pa and do in person campaigns

Biden is returning to the campaign trail and only campaigning in PA, WI and MIN. That should tell you that it's not gonna be a 500 EC map

[pbrower2a]

Polls after Labor Day should be interesting. That's all that I say as a prediction. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Polls after Labor Day should be interesting. That's all that I say as a prediction. 

I have my brown paper bag ready to profusely breathe into.

[emailking]

Biden is returning to the campaign trail and only campaigning in PA, WI and MIN. That should tell you that it's not gonna be a 500 EC map

You are literally the only person on this site I've seen mention a 500 EC map as a possibility.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden is returning to the campaign trail and only campaigning in PA, WI and MIN. That should tell you that it's not gonna be a 500 EC map

You are literally the only person on this site I've seen mention a 500 EC map as a possibility.

Think of that poster as a random number generator.

[philly09]

An ABC/Ipsos poll has been conducted. Here's what's been released so far.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1300105594628648961

[AZDem]

Biden is returning to the campaign trail and only campaigning in PA, WI and MIN. That should tell you that it's not gonna be a 500 EC map

You are literally the only person on this site I've seen mention a 500 EC map as a possibility.

Think of that poster as a random number generator.

Haha. Seems like a fair assessment. There's always some weird "it's not a 500+ EC race!" anytime a new poll is released as if anyone has assumed such a thing. Their posts used to be somewhat amusing but now I'm just annoyed by them. I can't tell if they are satire or trolling posts.

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs pretty much unchanged over the last few months.

National: 42/55 (-13)

Alaska: 44/53 (-9)
Arizona: 44/53 (-9)
Colorado: 37/60 (-23)
Florida: 45/52 (-7)
Georgia: 44/52 (-8)
Iowa: 46/52 (-6)
Kansas: 52/45 (+7)
Maine: 37/59 (-22)
Michigan: 41/56 (-15)
Minnesota: 40/57 (-17)
Montana: 46/51 (-5)
Nevada: 36/60 (-24)
New Hampshire: 36/60 (-24)
New Mexico: 42/55 (-13)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Ohio: 46/51 (-5)
Pennsylvania: 42/55 (-13)
South Carolina: 49/48 (+1)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 38/59 (-21)
Wisconsin: 44/54 (-10)

I'll say though - Wisconsin was generally like -5 or -6 ish for Trump before, so -10 is one of the worse results I've seen for him via Civiqs. So the CW on "this helps Trump" should be taken with a grain of salt.

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1300464455575310337

Georgia in contention, Trump is in trouble.

In view of a recent post in which I got estimates of Trump winning certain states, I don't need to keep any "seat-of-the-pants" estimates of a Trump win. I might give an update around October 1 based upon matchups of the time. I see no good model for two months away from the election... yet.

Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

About a month from now, a different line will apply to President Trump's chances of getting re-elected:

Time to election  |1 point|5 points||10 points|20 points|
one day............. |...64%|....95%|.....99.7%|.99.999%|
one week........... |...60%|....89%|.......98%|...99.97%|
one month......... |...57%|....81%|.......95%|.....99.7%|
three months..... |...55%|....72%|.......87%|........98%|
six months..........|...53%|....66%|.......79%|.......93%|
one year.............|....52%|...59%|.......67%|.......81%|

From three months out to one month out, leads in the 5-to-10% range give 8% or 9% increases in the likelihood of a win for a leader. On the other sides, a 1% margin goes from giving a 55% chance of winning to a 57% chance, which of course reminds us of the margin of error; a 20% edge gives the leader a likelihood  going from 98% to nearly 100%. 

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump Approval is +2 in Emerson (49%-47%).

Hahahahaha

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump Approval is +2 in Emerson (49%-47%).

Hahahahaha

Yeah and Trump is still down by 4 points, lol Trump has never lead in a single poll

[wbrocks67]

also just wanna add that Civiqs' approval for Trump (-8) is close to what PPP found today (-6)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump needs to be at 55 percent to be safe for reelection, the reason why Bush W, won was that he already had 911 behind his back. Bush W, Clinton and Obama all lead in polls against their opponents, Trump, just like in 2016 has never lead.

The only way Trump would have won, if Covid was eradicated by election day, but we will still be in Recession mode, Trump Toupe doesnt understand that

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks like the Emerson poll with Trump at 49 percent was an outlier, Trump is still at 44 percent. As for the EC, Biden will get at least 279 EC votes, the blue wall isn't cracking with elevated unemployment rate. But, did crack in 2016 on 4.7 unemployment and Benghazi

[Del Tachi]

Don't look now, but the 538 average now has Trump approval higher than it was exactly one year ago (43.3% vs 41.3%)