Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Person Man]

Georgia, Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Do you approve or disapprove of the impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump?

1. Approve – 54%

2. Disapprove – 44%

3. Don’t know; refused to answer – 2%

Based on what you know at this point, do you think that Donald Trump should or should not be impeached and removed from office?

1. Should be impeached and removed – 47%

2. Should not be impeached and removed – 47%

3. Don’t know; refused to answer – 6%

Note: The survey was conducted by telephone, with 70% of calls made to cellphones and 30% to traditional landlines. The data are weighted based on race, age and sex to accurately reflect the demographics of the state. Some totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-georgians-support-impeachment-inquiry-split-trump-ouster/grQAEPhAanEgDiSYfqsAaL/

There will be a poll out tomorrow on approval and disapproval of the President. It's been a while since I have seen a one-state poll about Georgia. Most approval ratings of the President in Georgia have looked hideous for the president.

I imagine it’s about 44%.

[Person Man]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Georgia.

45% approve, 54% disapprove.

https://ajc-isabetai.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/poll-nov-2019-crosstabs.pdf

I was about right on this.

[Person Man]

He's hitting freezing again!

[Person Man]

Trump has recovered, he is no where near where he was in he Summer time. Trump has recovered to some degree. Emerson does phone polls, others do on line polls. We saw the same thing in 2004, Dubya came back and recover.

Trump will probably end up close to 50%

 

Based on one poll? 

And he has not been close to 50% his entire presidency. Why would that change?

Both Bush and Obama looked on the ropes a year out and yet polarization saved them. Even Carter improved for a little while. Right now, Trump is still the most unpopular president in modern times for this day in office according to 538. Then again, maybe he just wins because all that matters is that he is the most conservative candidate. The way Bush won in 2004 or Obama won in 2012 when people just didn’t want a conservative.

[Person Man]

Used improperly 53 (+4)
Did not use improperly 42 (-1)

42% (!!!!) thinks Trump did NOT use his powers improperly in the Ukraine matter. Wow. That is honestly astounding. I mean this is textbook abuse of power, even if you interpret the matters in the most Trump-friendly manner. Even with no quid-pro-quo whatsoever, asking a foreign government to investigate (or just announce an investigation) into your presumed presidential challenger is abuse of power, period. Man, sometimes I wish the democrats had never even mentioned quid-pro-quo in the first place. Quid-pro-quo makes it worse, but it doesn't change the fact that it was abuse of power.

I just think they are fine with corruption because they think they are benefiting from it. It’s like what happened in Brazil until the economy hit a soft spot.

[Person Man]

What have beem the main news stories since Thanksgiving-

- The economy is showing signs of slowing down (negligible hiring despite the beginning of the holiday season)
- Trump giving more mixed signals about the trade war
- Trump expanding the trade war
- Democrats wrapping up witnesses on impeachment
- The stock market has been eupohoric but appears to have peaked

[Person Man]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Dec. 2-3, 1117 adults including 955 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-2)

Impeach Trump? Yes 44 (-3), No 42 (+2)


RV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

Impeach Trump? Yes 45 (-2), No 45 (+3)


Most pollsters take a break around holidays (it's harder to poll people then), so the recent polling drought should be ending soon now that Thanksgiving is over.

Concerning numbers on impeachment, but interesting that it comes with no Trump approval bounce.

People just either want to sound like they are "thinking" about the issues and having the nuance or maybe they just want to give up because they know the senate will just nullify and it is the Republican position that their president should have unlimited power. People just need to know that if Trump and the GOP go unpunished that it will be gross incompetence for the next Democrat to become president and NOT use international corruption to rig elections and control the media and pack the courts with their business and SJW partners.

[Person Man]

Soooo Rassy posted on Twitter that Trump has a 26% approval rating amongst Democrats and I pointed out that they were the only pollster that had the GOP winning the 2018 midterms... they blocked me two minutes later.

Just like their snowflake idol would.

Lol they don’t even hide it anymore. Their tweets are super targeted. They tweeted this to Mike Cernovich saying that it meant impeachment was failing.

So Rassy is now an internal pollster for national socialists?

[Person Man]

The next 100 days will be critical to understanding whether President Donald Trump will win a second term in office. His approval rating has been consistently low during his first term. Yet his supporters could always point out that approval ratings before an election year have not historically been correlated with reelection success.

But by mid-March of an election year, approval ratings, though, become more predictive. Presidents with low approval ratings in mid-March of an election year tend to lose, while those with strong approval ratings tend to win in blowouts and those with middling approval ratings usually win by small margins.
Let's start with where Trump is right now: an approval rating in the low 40s. Since World War II, two presidents have had an approval rating at or below 45% in mid-March of an election year. George H.W. Bush had an approval rating at 39%, while Jimmy Carter's was at 45% and falling fast. Both of them went on to lose reelection by greater than 5 points.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, there have been five presidents with an approval rating of 55% or above. There was Bill Clinton at 55%, Ronald Reagan at 55%, Richard Nixon at 58%, Dwight Eisenhower at 72% and Lyndon Johnson at 80%. All of these presidents won their elections by nine points or greater.
Finally, we have the group of presidents with approval ratings between between 46% and 54%. This includes Gerald Ford at 47%, Barack Obama at 47%, George W. Bush at 49% and Harry Truman at 51%. All of their elections were decided by less than 5 points.
Ford didn't win.

https://us.cnn.com/2019/12/07/politics/trump-100-days-reelection-analysis/index.html

Interesting, and somewhat encouraging, because I don't see how Trump ever consistently makes it into the 46-54% average range.

Of course, Trump being the anomalous enigma he usually is could make this yet another irrelevant predictor. I still wouldn't count him out.

That last part is the one thing he can do. He is extremely gifted at playing the media in the way that people want and think they can play him.

[Person Man]

Impeachment is backfiring on the Dems, the Dems can still win, but it probably is a neutral election cycle not a wave election and if it's a 2016 election,  in a neutral election, Trump can win Wiz. Dems are nominating a corrupt Hilary in Biden, again

I said this was gonna happen, but I hoped I was wrong

If its a neutral year, that means Trump will win. If Trump does well in the Great Lakes, that means Democrats need to be more moderate and go after winnable votes in places like Texas, Florida, Georgia, NC, and Arizona instead of going after people in WI,MI and PA.

Well, either find a Bill 2.0 or find a way to get millions of people out to the polls who just don't care about what's going on right now. That's what Trump did.

[Person Man]

Impeachment is backfiring on the Dems, the Dems can still win, but it probably is a neutral election cycle not a wave election and if it's a 2016 election,  in a neutral election, Trump can win Wiz. Dems are nominating a corrupt Hilary in Biden, again

I said this was gonna happen, but I hoped I was wrong

If its a neutral year, that means Trump will win. If Trump does well in the Great Lakes, that means Democrats need to be more moderate and go after winnable votes in places like Texas, Florida, Georgia, NC, and Arizona instead of going after people in WI,MI and PA.

Well, either find a Bill 2.0 or find a way to get millions of people out to the polls who just don't care about what's going on right now. That's what Trump did.

Nancy Pelosi, as minority leader, also said when Ryan was Speaker., Congress should walk and chew bubblegum at the same time when Ryan and GOP were investigating Benghazi. Dems are doing exactly what Ryan did, consume all the Congressional time on oversight and not pass laws in protecting Biden.

Trump can run against the do nothing Congressional Dems as Obama did in 2012, and House can flip R

If the House flips, every party leader should resign that morning.

[Person Man]

Morning Consult/Politico, Dec. 6-8, 1994 RV (2-week change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Support impeachment inquiry? Yes 49 (+1), No 42 (-1)

Impeach? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (nc)

Remove? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (-1)

Slight slight uptick but no groundbreaking revolts from either side.  Looks about right. 

If Trump is going to be reelected in a typical fashion, we will start to see him "growing" on people over the course of the winter to the point where is either controversial (barely underwater) to moderately popular (a clear plurality for Trump). I really don't expect Trump to get above 50.

I can see his numbers between now and February getting to how he initially polled at the very start of his presidency if he on track for the Democrat only getting 48% of the vote.

[Person Man]

Once the general election really gets going, and Trump starts driving the Democratic nominee's numbers down to Hillary's levels, we are going to see a similar dynamic with the likelihood of Trump losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college.

It's not a likelihood. Even last cycle the chance of a popular/electoral split was never more than 10% according to 538.

What are you expecting to happen? A Trump pv victory by winning the 3rd party vote and Democratic abstention? That’s how Bush and Obama won. The reason Obama struggled was because he lost a lot of crossover vote by being very ambitious because of the recession.

[Person Man]

With this big uptick there are two possibilities-

1) Everybody is making money but you
2) Trump has finally broken the American voter. I guess bullying works.

[Person Man]

Maybe two things- Trump has become a lot more accommodative to free trade and Democrats are afraid of impeachment.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1207650045836845056

Approval : 45/51
Impeachment : 48% against / 49% for

Lines up pretty well with the numbers everywhere else: a pretty equal share of voters either love impeachment or hate it. 

Those numbers are believable as floors and ceilings for Trump. He will probably lose 5-6% of global support worse case or gain 2-3% support best case between 2016 and 2020.

[Person Man]

We will see what happens now that Christmas is over. It appears we are indeed starting the campaign in a Lean D environment. Is Trump still in trouble or will Republicans come home as Trump softens on trade? Is Trump beginning to grow on people or break their spirits? Are enough people able to get the raises (or at least the loans) they need to move to the next level in their life as the media says? Are Democrats really that socially or politically inept or have policies that unrealistic?

[Person Man]

Arizona: PPP, Jan. 2-4, 760 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 52

Biden 46, Trump 46
Trump 47, Sanders 46
Trump 47, Warren 45
Trump 47, Buttigieg 44


Iowa: PPP, Dec, 29-31, 964 voters

Approve 48
Disapprove 48

This seems unusually high for Trump compared to other Iowa polls.

Trump 49, Buttigieg 48
Trump 49, Biden 46
Trump 49, Sanders 44,
Warren 49, Sanders 44

That’s the path for Trump. Never Trumpers come home and Never Hillary voters stay home.

[Person Man]

Michigan: Glengariff Group, Jan. 3-7, 600 LV via live phone interviews

Approve 47
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 44

Biden 50, Trump 43
Bloomberg 47, Trump 41
Sanders 49, Trump 45
Buttigieg 45, Trump 43
Warren 46, Trump 44

This is the one that has Peters up only by 4? This poll has Trump as more controversial than unpopular.

[Person Man]

Quinnipiac, Jan. 8-12, 1562 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 34 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Approve of impeachment: 51/46
Remove Trump: 46/48

Was killing Soleimani the right action to take?

Right action 45
Wrong action 41

Should Trump consult with Congress if he plans to launch more military strikes in the Middle East?

Yes 65
No 29

Impact of killing Soleimani on the safety of Americans:

More safe 32
Less safe 45
No impact 18

I'm a bit confused at how Americans think the Soleimani strike made the country less safe, but can square that with supporting the strike against him. Maybe I should just stop trying to understand the American public...

It felt good but was a  up. Simple as that.

[Person Man]

Trump hit 51 in Rasmussen one day last week, which is likely what he's referring to.  It was just a one-shot, though, and went back into the 40's the next day.

I totally believe he can get 51% of the PV, or at least 51% of the TPV if the electorate looked like the 2004 or 2010 where Republicans turned out by so much they reached or exceeded parity.

[Person Man]

From CNN Polls

The Trump argument here is clear: You may not like me as a person. You may not like my policies on, well, lots of stuff. But you are doing well. The stock market is at all-time highs. Why then would we ever consider changing horses in midstream?

Will Trump do that? Probably not. He lacks the message discipline to stay on even one message for a few days a time. But if he does wind up snatching victory from the jaws of defeat again in November, it's that economic approval number that explains it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/politics/donald-trump-victory-2020/index.html

Of course, elections aren't just about voter preference. They're about enthusiasm, too, because enthusiasm correlates with turnout.
Trump's approval rating is 54% among voters in the battleground states who are at least very enthusiastic. His disapproval rating among those voters is 45%, which puts his net approval rating at +9 points among them. Last month, it was +10 points. These two results are within the margin of error of each other.
Trump is doing his best among enthusiastic voters nationally, too. His approval rating is 49% with those who are at least very enthusiastic. His approval rating is 51% among those who are extremely enthusiastic. Last month, it was a similar 48%.
Now, none of these numbers means Trump is necessarily a favorite for reelection. Plenty of unethusiastic voters will cast ballots, and the battleground states are close.
Still, our poll continues to tell a complicated story. Trump may not be liked by Americans, and a majority may even want him thrown out of office. But he still could easily win reelection.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/21/politics/trump-approval-rating-analysis/index.html

It’s basically an extreme version of what happened with Obama. As long as he we was on the ballot, he couldn’t be touched. He was the voice of a generation and the only one who could handle health care reform and the recovery, even if his vision for America made most Americans uncomfortable or even depressed.

When he was off the ballot and especially when it was discovered that Obama couldn’t be replaced so easily, Democrats struggled.

[Person Man]

New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and MAYBE Maine are swinging back. It really looks like it will all come down to Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Maybe North Carolina and Florida but Trump might do very well there and probably will in Georgia too.

[Person Man]

FWIW, Trump gets 45.6% on RCP and 44.9% among "voters" on 538. Highest since Spring 2017.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

This is all based on who they expect to vote. If Trump wins, its because people don't vote. If Trump loses, its because the pollsters were "unskewing" The polls.

[Person Man]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

 There are few real independent voters anymore. There are more Democrats than Republicans.  

Seems that you have a large portion of independents who say "oh, I'm a registered independent" but have voted for the same party for decades. 

I like to say that group is made up of two people: Those who claim to be "independent" because it makes them feel that they came up with their own ideas of how things should be and that one party agrees with them 90% of the time and one doesn't and those who are "independent" so as to move the Overton window in their direction by pretending that the side they end up voting for  is "more moderate" and the other side is unreasonable.