Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[wbrocks67]

Suffolk continues to be one of Trump 's best pollsters.

On another note, I've noticed its quite common for presidents to get a holiday bump. Happened to Trump last year and multiple times for Obama. I'd wager Trump is in the middle of one now.

Yeah.. their last polls 46-52 was at least a little bit more realistic but 48/50 right now is just way outside the norm.

[wbrocks67]

interesting. looks like these was a significant drop in impeachment support amongst democrats. I guess the shine wore off. could also just be holiday ambivalence.

Here's another possible reason:

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1206750770730872832

Once again, the media creates a narrative rather than reporting on the facts. Same mistakes they made with Clinton in 2016 and they never learned.

MTE. Every time a Dem is interviewed or brought up, the narrative is "is this going to end your career" instead of it being about holding Trump accountable

[wbrocks67]

Trump's approval rating is now at it's highest since early 2017, according to 538.

Although, essentially the same as the 2018 exit polls (-9)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1207650045836845056

Approval : 45/51
Impeachment : 48% against / 49% for

Yeah, not buying his approval is only -6 in Virginia

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1219367076135161857?s=21

Aka the exact same # it was on 538's tracker on Election Day 2018. Not much has changed.

[wbrocks67]

The "extremely enthusiastic" numbers are suspect (Trump ABOVE water in approval?) especially after 2018, but we're also in the middle of a Democratic primary, so....

[wbrocks67]

Everyone keeps saying PA is redder than MI and WI and they can never back up their claim.

This. 2016 is looking more like an anomaly rather than a trend. At least at this point.

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 19-21, 1500 adults including 1176 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 45 (nc), No 43 (nc)

Remove Trump? Yes 43 (+1), No 42 (-1)


RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 48 (nc), No 47 (nc)

Remove Trump? Yes 45 (nc), No 47 (+1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 45 (-2), Trump 44 (+2)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (-2), R 43 (+1)

What is going on with YouGov's sample lately? The difference between adults and RV should not be that much, and the 2020/GCB was like Dems +7-10 just a few weeks ago.

[wbrocks67]

Trump's approval with Women being 57-38 lines up with most recent polls. His approval with Men being the same absolutely does not. Emerson continues to fail.

[wbrocks67]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

[wbrocks67]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

This is not how percentages works: -15 is only 40% of the population. Thus, independents' contribution to the population margin is 40% of 15, or six percentage points. The other three percentage points are due to there being more Democrats than Republicans.

This was their sample:

REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 31%
Democrat 34
Independent 26
Other/DK/NA 10

Now, I don't know what lump the "Other" ones go into. But Democrats outsampled Republicans. So that means Dems would get an even bigger portion. So if there are more Democrats than Rs, but both are at like 94/4, and then Independents are 38/53, there's no way that outcome would come to 43/52 in the end. I'm just confused by their math.

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania F&M Poll

Favorability: 41/55 (-14)

Job Performance?
Excellent/Good: 38%
Fair/Poor: 61%

Deserve Re-Election? 41% yes, 57% no

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/562535870732261549-f-m-poll-release-january-2020.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Voter enthusiasm swings towards the GOP: https://apnews.com/4daf1b154eeff75b97b886e2fe8c1d29

Basically, Trump will equal or better his electoral landslide of 2016.

The Democrats are in a major primary right now. It's not an apples to apples comparison.

And even so, that's one poll. There have been numerous other polls to show Democrats interest in the election higher than Rs,.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 29-30, 1992 RV (5-day change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-2)

Approve of impeachment: Yes 50, No 43

Remove Trump: Yes 50, No 43

Compare this was the NBC/WSJ poll out today that has his strongly approve at 36%. Polls are a bit all over the place recently.

[wbrocks67]

Gallup has trump at 49

There's numerous parts of the poll that make it clear the R sample is very high. Also, somehow he's at nearly 50% approval with only 42% approval of Independents.

The Republican Party's image is higher than the D's, and the Rs are at about 50%. 50% approval for the Republican party.

Meanwhile, usual Ds have a bit of an advantage on where people identify. Rs at 48%, Ds at 44%. Again, clear outlier.

[wbrocks67]

No one is discounting Gallup or the fact that Trump's approval has inched up a bit. But most reliable polls right now have Trump at about 43-44%, nowhere near 50%. Gallup's oversampling of Republicans is ridiculous, and I can't believe they actually let that happen.

The 538 average right now is 43.5%, which sounds about right. Gallup's a mess for the way they set this one up. 48% Republican sample is a joke poll of Rasmussen level.

[wbrocks67]

This is why pundits are the worst.

Trump's average approval in the 538 tracker is -9 right now. You know what it was on Election Day 2018? -10. So he's .... 1 point above where he was.

But that ridiculous Gallup poll is going to make tons of headlines when in reality, his approval is not much different than where it was a year and half ago, and mostly thru his tenure.

Which makes Tweets like the ones from Josh and G. Elliott (who I expect more from) particularly egregious.

[wbrocks67]

The  Unskewing 2.0...


Guys, would you try this hard if the polls showed the opposite, like Trump going down under 40%?

No, because we've had many many many instances in the past of Trump going down below 40%. It would not be realistic. However, we have a number of polls having him around the same spot (40-44) and then we have like 2 having him at 49-50%. It's just common sense. Not to mention the facts (the Gallup poll DID oversample Republicans)

[wbrocks67]

Polls that keep Trump under 45 percent are useless, Trump is gonna get a bounce of about 3-5 points from his SOTU speech

Ratings were pretty dismal, there's no reason to expect a bump.

[wbrocks67]

A+ Golden Standard Monmouth University
February 6 to 9, 2020 with 902 adults
margin of error of +/- 3.3


Approval 44 (+1)
Disapproval 50 (-2)

RV:
44 (+1)
51 (-1)



Do you approve or disapprove of the Senate’s decision to acquit Donald Trump and not remove him from the presidency?

Approve   49%
Disapprove   47%


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_021020/

It's probably a small sample, but they did not get enough 18-34 year olds in this poll if his approval is only -5 among that group.

[wbrocks67]

I wouldn't read a lot (in either direction) into turnout for a primary in which there's an incumbent with no significant challengers.

Trump actually held a rally just before the Republican primary, which is unusual. Obama didn't. Obama seemed not to like wasting Presidential time or government funds.

What I noticed was that 9.1% of the Republican primary vote went to William Weld and a small number to write-ins, indicating that many Republicans have cold feet about Trump.

Let us put it this way -- the Democrats together got 296,622 votes, which is fewer than 50K away from what Hillary Clinton won in 2016.   

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227716314409709569

Trump literally campaigned in New Hampshire the night before.

[wbrocks67]

Emerson continues to be a mess, and NBC/WSJ has regularly been one of Trump's best pollsters. They even had him at 46/52 before the midterms, and we saw how that turned out.

[wbrocks67]

Trump's Gallup approval remains at 49% .... because they keep oversampling Republicans

https://news.gallup.com/poll/286280/trump-job-approval-steady.aspx

Gallup has observed an increase in the percentage of Americans identifying as Republicans (32% in the past two surveys, up from 28% in the prior two surveys), along with a decline in the percentage identifying as independents (41%, down from 43%) and Democrats (27%, down from 28%).

[wbrocks67]

Interesting that the Civiqs tracker has had Trump approval basically static for months now - https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Also, Quinnipiac has new polls out today.

Trump approval in-
Michigan: 42/54 (-12)
Pennsylvania: 44/52 (-8)
Wisconsin: 51/46 (+5)

Seems like a sampling issue in Wisconsin. I wouldn't be surprised if he was even = right now, but there's no way he's +5.

https://poll.qu.edu/2020-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=3656

[wbrocks67]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Feb. 18-19, 1113 adults including 951 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+3)


RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)


This continues a recent trend in which most live-interview polls have shown a steady improvement for Trump, while online surveys have remained more or less stable.  G. Elliott Morris has suggested that a partisan response effect is responsible for at least part of this difference.

Makes sense why the Civiqs tracker has not moved either.