Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Another very poor showing for Democrats in Woonsocket, though. Leonard may win it. It's a combo of very low turnout from D voters in recent cycles there, and a fast R-trend among the French Canadian wwc people who are left.

Amo is also underperforming in North Providence, but there's a bunch of r@cist Italians there so that's to be expected.

There are two Trump towns in the district - Smithfield and North Smithfield - that are a bit redder tonight.

Amo is doing better than Cicilline elsewhere (the Latino areas and the East Bay resist lib suburbs).

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

It's probably gone unnoticed by most people who don't care about Rhode Island, but the state has gotten really, really good at counting votes quickly in the past few cycles.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Woonsocket votes Republican by 4%.

I couldn't tell you the last time Woonsocket voted Republican for anything. A bit of a warning sign for Democrats in mill town New England. There is still some slippage happening there.

[NerdyBohemian]

Woonsocket votes Republican by 4%.

I couldn't tell you the last time Woonsocket voted Republican for anything. A bit of a warning sign for Democrats in mill town New England. There is still some slippage happening there.

Woonsocket needs an outreach program to its swaths of Latino and southeast Asian and west African  population. Every time I vote, I never see more than three other voters at the polls, and they're always old and white.

[NerdyBohemian]

and a fast R-trend among the French Canadian wwc people who are left.

Not this one!

[Roll Roons]

It's probably gone unnoticed by most people who don't care about Rhode Island, but the state has gotten really, really good at counting votes quickly in the past few cycles.

I know being a small state helps, but that is extremely commendable and something other blue states can really learn from.

[NerdyBohemian]

Woonsocket votes Republican by 4%.

I couldn't tell you the last time Woonsocket voted Republican for anything. A bit of a warning sign for Democrats in mill town New England. There is still some slippage happening there.

John Loughlin for congress and John Robitaille for governor in 2010.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Any chance UT-02 is a single digit race? It was Lee+11 in 2022 iirc.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Any chance UT-02 is a single digit race? It was Lee+11 in 2022 iirc.

Polls show a 9 point race right now.

[Ferguson97]

Any chance UT-02 is a single digit race? It was Lee+11 in 2022 iirc.

Turnout will by abysmally low. I could go either way on whether this will benefit Democrats or Republicans in a state like Utah.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Sheila Jackson Lee could be elected mayor of Houston in a few weeks, in which case there would need to be a special in TX-18 (although I can also see TX Republicans not scheduling the special until next November).

[wbrocks67]

So I know this is still Utah, but Maloy going for a total abortion ban seems pretty ill advised here, and IIRC, as of a week or two ago, Reibe was the only one airing ads. I feel like this one could get pretty interesting:

https://twitter.com/sltrib/status/1725294447242420337

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So I know this is still Utah, but Maloy going for a total abortion ban seems pretty ill advised here, and IIRC, as of a week or two ago, Reibe was the only one airing ads. I feel like this one could get pretty interesting:

https://twitter.com/sltrib/status/1725294447242420337

Will be interesting to see how the chips fall, in the end.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all

[GeorgiaModerate]

Predictions?  I'll go with R+8.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

R +9

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all

If the result is around R +9 then it will be an indication that polls are accurate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all

If the result is around R +9 then it will be an indication that polls are accurate.

Some polls.  Be wary of overextrapolation.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all

If the result is around R +9 then it will be an indication that polls are accurate.

This district was Trump +17. That would be a very healthy underperformance by the Republican and certainly wouldn’t track with national polling having Trump up.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

R+15

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all

If the result is around R +9 then it will be an indication that polls are accurate.

This district was Trump +17. That would be a very healthy underperformance by the Republican and certainly wouldn’t track with national polling having Trump up.

The polls that have Trump up also have Democrats doing well downballot, and show that Biden's weaknesses are entirely concentrated among those who didn't show up in 2022.

[Utah Neolib]

R+12
(I live here)

[Progressive Pessimist]

If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all

If the result is around R +9 then it will be an indication that polls are accurate.

This district was Trump +17. That would be a very healthy underperformance by the Republican and certainly wouldn’t track with national polling having Trump up.

The polls that have Trump up also have Democrats doing well downballot, and show that Biden's weaknesses are entirely concentrated among those who didn't show up in 2022.

100% of everyone who didn't vote in special elections, 2022, or 2023 are Republican-we know!

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all

If the result is around R +9 then it will be an indication that polls are accurate.

This district was Trump +17. That would be a very healthy underperformance by the Republican and certainly wouldn’t track with national polling having Trump up.

The polls that have Trump up also have Democrats doing well downballot, and show that Biden's weaknesses are entirely concentrated among those who didn't show up in 2022.

100% of everyone who didn't vote in special elections, 2022, or 2023 are Republican-we know!

Not 100%, but polls show them breaking by 10%, and probably more like 20% in whiter, swing states.

[wbrocks67]

If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all

If the result is around R +9 then it will be an indication that polls are accurate.

There has been 1 poll of this race as far as I know, so no, it would not mean that