Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[MT Treasurer]

Off-year elections just don't mean much. They have very different turnout and very different candidates.

So you’re saying this isn’t representative of a presidential electorate?

Kentucky 2023:

% of total 2019 vote cast:

Jefferson County - 92% (Beshear raw vote: 96% of 2019)
Fayette County - 92% (Beshear raw vote: 101% of 2019)

Breathitt County - 77% (Beshear raw vote: 93% of 2019)
Perry County - 75% (Beshear raw vote: 93% of 2019)
Lee County - 74% (Beshear raw vote: 104% of 2019)

(the last three rural counties were where Beshear got some of his strongest swings from 2019)

[Tekken_Guy]

Celeste Maloy has now beaten expectations three times in a row.

-Everyone said Hughes was going to win the convention. Maloy won.
-Everyone said Edwards was going to win the primary. Maloy won.
-Everyone said Riebe was going to overperform in the general. Maloy was the one who overperformed.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Celeste Maloy has now beaten expectations three times in a row.

-Everyone said Hughes was going to win the convention. Maloy won.
-Everyone said Edwards was going to win the primary. Maloy won.
-Everyone said Riebe was going to overperform in the general. Maloy was the one who overperformed.

Looks like Trump should pick Maloy as his running mate

[ralstonfan65]

No one should be pontificating with any takes until all the votes are counted. We just saw how much these margins (and the narrative) can change in MS-Gov so we should wait for the final count, especially because there is still about 30% of the total vote outstanding in UT while only 6% was outstanding in MS.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1727172159074930921

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lost amidst the discussion is the fact that Maloy was also an excellent candidate for this district.

[wbrocks67]

No one should be pontificating with any takes until all the votes are counted. We just saw how much these margins (and the narrative) can change in MS-Gov so we should wait for the final count, especially because there is still about 30% of the total vote outstanding in UT while only 6% was outstanding in MS.

Yeah, someone brought up how at 4am on election night 2022, Stewart was up by 36%, but by the end of counting, was at +26%. Now, we don't know which portions of the district were in and not in necessarily, but given that the two biggest counties are only 2/3 in, I think we should wait a bit.

There's two ways of looking at it based on the final margin - Stewart was an incumbent and underperforming him isn't too surprising. But if its closer to Trumps margin, I wouldn't call that amazing for Rs since Trump had a typically bad performance for an R.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1727172159074930921

Given the ease of voting in UT and it being an all VBM election, this doesn't seem too surprising

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Lost amidst the discussion is the fact that Maloy was also an excellent candidate for this district.

She was a carpetbagger and didn't even vote in 2020 or 2022.

[Minnesota Mike]

It never gets noticed because Utah is a one party state and elections are rarely close but they give Arizona and Nevada a run for their money for how long it takes to count all the votes. It honestly does not bother me, better right than fast, but when a toss up state has 30% of the ballots to count the morning after an election it is the end of the world according to some.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lost amidst the discussion is the fact that Maloy was also an excellent candidate for this district.

She was a carpetbagger and didn't even vote in 2020 or 2022.

No one cares about that in Utah and not voting in 2020 isn’t necessarily the worst thing if your brand is “I’m a sane, reasonable, inoffensive/non-threatening conservative vote, I’m just not a Trump cultist.” 

Also, she’s not really a carpet-bagger given that she only moved from Utah to DC once she got hired by the district’s previous Congressman as Chief Legal Counsel for his district and DC offices in 2019.  Prior to that, she lived and spent years working in the district.  This isn’t a Dr. Oz/McCormick situation or even a Vance one where the person couldn’t flee the state fast enough.  I mean, far be it from me to defend a Republican congresswoman, but I think it is kinda unfair to call her a carpetbagger when this is very clearly where she’d be living and working but for her position in Stewart’s DC office.

[walleye26]

When do the next round of ballots drop? Tonight?

[Birdish]

It never gets noticed because Utah is a one party state and elections are rarely close but they give Arizona and Nevada a run for their money for how long it takes to count all the votes. It honestly does not bother me, better right than fast, but when a toss up state has 30% of the ballots to count the morning after an election it is the end of the world according to some.

It must have been 2018 where UT-4 took almost 2 weeks to call. That was positively excruciating.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1727172159074930921

Given the ease of voting in UT and it being an all VBM election, this doesn't seem too surprising

Given Republicans' recent insistence that they're the high turnout benefitting party, you'd think they'd be championing vote-by-mail across the country.

[Hope For A New Era]

Lost amidst the discussion is the fact that Maloy was also an excellent candidate for this district.

She was a carpetbagger and didn't even vote in 2020 or 2022.

First of all, she's not, second of all, carpetbagging means little here. Utah is probably one of the most "single identity" states out there. 83% of the population lives in a single megametro, and both the megametro and the districts are oddly-shaped enough that you really can't regionalize the districts at all. These elections often feel like "de facto statewide elections." In 2020 there were McAdams signs all over, often well outside of his district.
There was a period of time in 2021ish during which none of the four representatives lived in the district they represented. Few people noticed or cared.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Updated results:

57% Maloy (Rep.)
34% Riebe (Dem.)

https://electionresults.utah.gov/results/public/utah/elections/2023-Nov-General

Over twice the margin I predicted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1732157753714426075

[Roll Roons]

News on McCarthy’s seat: https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1737193149788008650

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1757139081325133838

[wbrocks67]

Queens has finally been certified for NY-03, 600 new votes were added, and Suozzi ticked up from +23.12 to +23.44.

Brings overall total to Suozzi +7.84 (previous was +7.72)

Suozzi 53.92% [53.86% previous]
Pilip 46.08% [46.14% previous]

I imagine Nassau's final numbers will inch him over +8.00 in the end

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1766531033598476753

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results page for tonight's CA-20 jungle primary:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/19/us/elections/results-california-us-house-20.html

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH-6 D: Kripchak

OH-6 R remains too close to call.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH-6 R: Rulli

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Fong (R) has advanced to the CA-20 runoff in May. Boudreaux (R) and Wood (D) are competing for the 2nd Slot.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dems have been locked out of the CA-20 Special