Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Nina Turner got on my nerves in too in both 2016 and 2020, but I think she'll be more agreeable as a congresswoman and probably earn some respect from me when her voting record starts to develop. I can put my pettiness aside.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Nina Turner will probably fall in line way more often than not, y'all are being dramatic and need to seriously touch some grass

I was never really a fan of Turner either, but I've come around to this line of thinking as well. It'll be fine.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hey if anyone wants a good laugh you should all check out James Jerome Bell's Ballotpedia page!

Olawakandi-level wisdom oozing out!

Image Link

What it says for those who can't read it:

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "First and foremost I would like to give all praise to the most high God is Sovereign of the universe Jehovah God I am from the mean tough streets of Cleveland Ohio having excelled with a lot of my people have failed I believe that I can be at Illuminator to the not only the 11th District, my community ,America, but the world as a whole I believe that with my experiences in life Community, employment entrepreneurship, education and the resolve to make life better for mankind. That I have the wherewithal and also The Human Experience to truly I say to you today make my mark in American society with the opportunity to serve my fellow man through honesty integrity and Truth.The world will be much better for my leadership and my commitment to Excellence. As I Forge a new America that will be a utopian society and what's peace and Harmony is to dwell."

Key messages:

• Utopian peace and Harmony!!!
• Saving our planet and natural resources!!!
• Common sense Gun control!!!

   

I said this on another thread, but if I lived in Cleveland I'd vote for this guy just because of pure comedic value

And on his Facebook:

As a black man in America I can see the tremendous blessing of being born in the mean, rough streets of Cleveland Ohio where I had to be Clever, smart and industrious.Bold enough to dream big. Although I have had my contemptuous moments I have risen , achieved and ascended to Heights surpassed by mere drive and God's will. I want to thank my mother Belle Lettres AKA Madelynne Alfreda Bell for her love, wisdom and support during my journey. There are so Many of my life experiences from Sports, the Arts, military and civilian achievements, but I have to take this time to thank my 9th grade teacher Joyce Petty at Harry Davis Junior High School in Cleveland's Glenville neighborhood. Miss Petty influence on my young wife was it has been very impactful!!

Is this Olakwandi?

ENDORSED! ENDORSED! 1,000 times endorsed!

[Progressive Pessimist]

I guess the media narrative after the TX-6 runoff of Trump's endorsement losing value was premature, as I suspected all along.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I've been pretty neutral in this race so I don't really have any strong feelings about it. But I will say that the media narrative of this being a "progressive versus moderate" contest will probably grate on me. It's not like Brown is Joe Manchin, or something. More aptly this race was probably one of attitude: team player versus rogue.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I've been pretty neutral in this race so I don't really have any strong feelings about it. But I will say that the media narrative of this being a "progressive versus moderate" contest will probably grate on me. It's not like Brown is Joe Manchin, or something. More aptly this race was probably one of attitude: team player versus rogue.

Well, the moderate won, so this race means nothing and we'll get the new progressive-vs-moderate battle for the soul of the party here in a couple months.

Sure, it's a media obsession that is never going to end. It's a self-replicating headline even though the truth is far more nuanced. Ostensibly the "moderates" (though usually I prefer the term "mainstream" in some cases) won the day in the New York elections this year, but concentrating on Adams' primary win alone ignores all the progressives who won other positions in the city. I think the fact that the reality is so much more complicated is a testament to the Democratic Party maintaining its big tent status, especially in the wake of an ideologically bankrupt GOP.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/berniesanders/status/1424067468750954499?s=21

Really irresponsible tweet from Bernie

Nina Turner really isn't the hill that Sanders and his movement should want to die on.

[Progressive Pessimist]

LOL, it's too funny to see people who dismiss these special elections when it doesn't align with how they personally think things should go.

There's a balance here - it's just one special. However, given the narrative about the environment and how horrific it is for Biden/Ds, especially with pieces about how the suburbs are 'going back to the Rs', this result provides a lot of contradictory evidence to that.

Even just getting Biden's -11 margin in this district would've been a great result, but a -6.8 loss, especially in a high turnout (surprisingly) special likely shows that Dobbs could be having a bit of an impact already, but also that specific areas, like others have said, are pissed off and not voting R anytime soon. Her margin in Lancaster specifically is pretty big, especially how much she outperformed Biden there.

Agreed. I don't want to read too much into this either. But I think it can, unequivocally, be considered good news for Democrats. It at the minimum suggests that the Democrats are maintaining at least some of the suburban support attained through the Trump era and that a midterm with Dobbs as a consideration is absolutely going to be different from one without, likely to Democrats' benefit. I don't know if either of those things will be enough to yield what can be called a positive environment for Democrats, but the fact that this is a possibility at all, is significant. I suppose we'll see if similar fundamentals occur in the MN-1 special, the NY-19 special, and especially the Kansas referendum.

But for me, this was a very pleasant surprise to come upon today, especially after a very depressing few days.

Also, quick side-note: I am very disappointed that this thread hasn't been flooded with flood puns.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So I didn't comment on this race since last night before returns came in, and it's about what I had realistically hoped for, even exceeding my expectations somewhat. It's another data point that suggests that the tide is turning back to Democrats. I share Xing's apprehension that we have three months to go, and the momentum continuing or improving is far from a sure thing, but these Republican special election under-performances cannot be ignored as being a bad sign for them, at least right now. Democrats didn't have this in 2018, even with the races they lost. And it definitely implies that the next special election in NY-19 might not be lean R after all, especially with some extra investment that will absolutely be worth it now. If Democrats hold that seat I can forgive Hochul for snatching Delgado from the district.

[Progressive Pessimist]

NY-19 seems kind of all over the place

DCCC apparently had Molinaro +3 last week (46-43) in one poll

Molinaro's team apparently had him +10 at some point (no time frame given) and Ryan had Molinaro up 3 in another poll

But then Democrats also had two other internal recent polls with Ryan in the lead

https://twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1559233246721974277
https://twitter.com/TrumpsTaxes/status/1558888916379369472

I think all we can say for sure is that this a real tossup.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Looking at cynic's estimation on twitter, the dem candidate is going to end up at 39%. If that is true I think Palin is going to win this.

Ew. This really is going to be the worst freshman class of Republicans ever!

[Progressive Pessimist]

From yesterday:

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1559882241743982592

I will always be fascinated at how Alaska is such a reverse of the political geography in nearly every other state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I hope all that ends up being true to Ryan's benefit. And I also agree that Delgado should have done a bit more to get involved with the race.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Here's how the latest batch came down:

Peltola 1,135 (49.5%)
Palin 566 (24.7%)
Begich 523 (22.8%)
Write-ins 71 (3.1%)
= 2,295

Where things are at:

Peltola 38.2% (was 38.0%)
Palin 31.8% (was 31.9%)
Begich 28.5% (was 28.6%)

Assuming that the remaining 31K ballots break down that way, I feel like Petola might be in decent shape.

It'll be pretty bizarre if Peltola somehow wins in the final round while Ryan loses. It will make this year's political environment even more confusing. I guess the common denominator would be the candidates: Molinaro being a good one for NY-19 and Palin reaping what she sowed from being perceived as caring more about fame than Alaskans, even if it is in fact by virtue of a unique electoral system.

I still think Palin wins in the end though, unfortunately. Just really intriguing to consider the aforementioned scenario.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida still sucks, and I think the Democratic Party needs to give up on it and focus those efforts elsewhere, but otherwise has been a pretty damn satisfying night! Democrats continue overperforming in special elections, several far-right maniacs lost their primaries, and against all odds and faulty polls Democrats held a bellwether district!

Dark Brandon August continues delivering! Can Alaska be good to us too now?

[Progressive Pessimist]

One aspect of these specials that hasn't been discussed at all: New York finally (mostly) got it together when it comes to counting votes!!!!

On the other hand, they were an absolute disaster when it came to conveying how much of their vote had already been counted and what was still left; still a very poor showing for them in my book.

Baby steps. It's progress in some way.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I love Ulster County. I go there every year and pick apples in true white guy fashion. I haven't been to Vermont ever, but I have a friend who goes there every year to ski and snowboard and he says they're comparable as well.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Also to note that Ryan would have won northern Dutchess as well if he wasn't facing a guy with a base there - that area is similar to Columbia and votes in statewide contests to the left to the district.

Indeed. I mentioned that in another thread. So Molinaro did have some attributes as a candidate because if he wasn't from Dutchess and so well-known there he likely would have lost worse. That's what's really intimidating for him about him running in the new NY-19 after last night. Well, that and Ithaca.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Peltola does pull off an upset, I don't know that we can say it had much to do with the national environment themes like we've seen in other special elections' swings, but it does fit into the theme of the GOP nominating s*** candidates who are turning elections into referendums on them. That's what this race is, at its most distilled, a referendum on Palin.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't care if we immediately drop this seat to Begich in November. Make Palin Irrelevant Again.

That's kind of where I'm at too. Some people deserve second chances, Palin is not one of them.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Dark Brandon August, on the very last day of the month, is still delivering! This is incredible! Palin's latest attempt at relevancy has been rejected with much due prejudice!

This is what happens when you nominate s***-tier candidates, Republicans! This is what happens when you f*** America in the ass, Larry!

[Progressive Pessimist]

As I've said many times before, I think it's fair to extrapolate how this became a referendum on Palin, even with the unique electoral system. As such I think it fits into the theme of this year's elections when it comes to the candidates being nominated.

Other stuff like Biden, Dobbs, and the economy are probably mostly irrelevant though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Looks like we have our Scott Brown/Doug Jones surprise underdog statwide special election win for this election cycle.

You would think Republicans would have had one already.

TX-34 and Virginia last year, maybe? I don't know if they really count though. Close to when those elections were held it looked pretty likely that both Republicans would win.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Extrapolating this swing compared to the 2020 result suggests we are looking at something like a D+15 national environment.

I mean, the Republican nominee (effectively) went from the Dean of the House, who’d represented Alaska for over half the time it’s been a state, to a nationwide joke.

And it would have remained a nationwide joke if Palin succeeded him.

As I've said many times before, I think it's fair to extrapolate how this became a referendum on Palin, even with the unique electoral system. As such I think it fits into the theme of this year's elections when it comes to the candidates being nominated.

Other stuff like Biden, Dobbs, and the economy are probably mostly irrelevant though.

I disagree. Peltola getting 40%+ in the first round likely shouldn't have even been possible in a red environment.

Maybe, but I think it's evident now how much Alaska hates their former Governor and how the electoral system allowed for them to express that. It might not have been a fluke, but it still kind of feels like it. I won't deny it as a rousing victory though.

We'll see how it goes in November.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Happy birthday, Rep-elect Peltola.

Wow! I didn't realize that! This thread has become a gold mine of fun trivia.