2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1773308283102589231?s=20

IA-03 is def interesting; I think many people overestimate how red the district actually is, especially since Miller-Meeks literally won by 6 votes in 2020 (underperforming Trump) and didn't do all that impressive in 2022.

Still, it's an uphill battle and I'd say Trump probably carries IA-03 again Presidentially; really the only good part of the district for Dems at this point is Johnson County and idk how many more votes they can squeeze out of it.

Miller-Meeks represents IA-1, and Johnson County is in IA-1 too.  

IA-3 is the Des Moines district represented by Zach Nunn.

But anyway, I think IA-3 is a swing district the rest of the decade.   Nunn only won by 0.7% in 2022 and that was with no Libertarian on the ballot.   Polk and Dallas Counties are still growing and trending D, and are the overwhelming majority of the district too.  

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1773308283102589231?s=20

IA-03 is def interesting; I think many people overestimate how red the district actually is, especially since Miller-Meeks literally won by 6 votes in 2020 (underperforming Trump) and didn't do all that impressive in 2022.

Still, it's an uphill battle and I'd say Trump probably carries IA-03 again Presidentially; really the only good part of the district for Dems at this point is Johnson County and idk how many more votes they can squeeze out of it.

Miller-Meeks represents IA-1, and Johnson County is in IA-1 too.  

IA-3 is the Des Moines district represented by Zach Nunn.

But anyway, I think IA-3 is a swing district the rest of the decade.   Nunn only won by 0.7% in 2022 and that was with no Libertarian on the ballot.   Polk and Dallas Counties are still growing and trending D, and are the overwhelming majority of the district too.  

Nunn is definitely someone I think outruns Trump this year.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1773308283102589231?s=20

IA-03 is def interesting; I think many people overestimate how red the district actually is, especially since Miller-Meeks literally won by 6 votes in 2020 (underperforming Trump) and didn't do all that impressive in 2022.

Still, it's an uphill battle and I'd say Trump probably carries IA-03 again Presidentially; really the only good part of the district for Dems at this point is Johnson County and idk how many more votes they can squeeze out of it.

Miller-Meeks represents IA-1, and Johnson County is in IA-1 too.  

IA-3 is the Des Moines district represented by Zach Nunn.

But anyway, I think IA-3 is a swing district the rest of the decade.   Nunn only won by 0.7% in 2022 and that was with no Libertarian on the ballot.   Polk and Dallas Counties are still growing and trending D, and are the overwhelming majority of the district too.  

Oops my bad; still had the right district in my mind just wrong label.

Will be interesting to see if Biden can eke out a victory in the real IA-03 this year though. In 2020, Trump carried the district by the skin of his teeth, but the district contains basically all of Ds Moones and its suburbs which is one of the few parts of the state where Dems haven’t fallen off a cliff and in some cases seen gains in recent years.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1778426275335471509

[wbrocks67]

PA-07 is Lean D and I stand by that.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1778536288083497057

[GeorgiaModerate]

ROFL:

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1779917876788650113

[Nyvin]

This seems incredibly low for what's essentially a district in the NYC metro.  Are the GOP just triaging this race this early?

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1780034007180460399

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

This seems incredibly low for what's essentially a district in the NYC metro.  Are the GOP just triaging this race this early?

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1780034007180460399

He spent a little less than his COH number through the entire 2022 race

source: https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_4th_Congressional_District_election,_2022

He should have more than enough many to compete.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/JesseAPaul/status/1780289873997422755

Boebert looks a lot tougher to beat than she did when she first moved districts at the start of the year, though it’s less about her own strength as a candidate (her fundraising is down a lot from where it used to be) than the fecklessness of the opposition. No R candidate in CO-04 other than Boebert hit 200k in fundraising this quarter, though some of the Dems in the race did.

That being said, Boebert in CO-04 could be a long term nightmare for the GOP. CO-04 is Trump+18 and stampeding leftward, it could be down to Trump+10 or so this year. It would be in their best interests to oust her in the primary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1780382332962168917

[wbrocks67]

The fundraising performance of Moreno, Rogers and Hovde in particular was truly embarrassing (barely $1M each- sans personal loans)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1780558021476659328

[wbrocks67]

AZ-06 was a bit overdue, Ciscomani barely won in 2022 - should've always been tossup. Engel's latest fundraising was wow though

[Yoda]

Sherrod Brown is an absolute monster. Moreno has no idea what he's gotten himself into. This race gives me PA '22 vibes. A lot of posters on this forum believed (foolishly, IMO) that Dr. Oz was the favorite in that race for some reason. Ohio is more republican than PA, of course, but Brown is also a far stronger candidate than Fetterman was.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1780382332962168917

Btw, there's an error on that tweet. Cruz raised $6.9 million, not 9.7.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1780382332962168917

Btw, there's an error on that tweet. Cruz raised $6.9 million, not 9.7.

Ouch!